by Al McMordie
Friday, Mar 18, 2022With the 2nd Round of the NCAA Tournament upon us, let's take a look at how the previous tournaments have gone -- from a point spread perspective.
There have been 30 NCAA Tournaments since 1991 (the 2020 event was cancelled due to COVID-19).
Here are how the individual seeds have fared:
#1 seeds: 102-17 SU, 60-59 ATS
#2 seeds: 75-36 SU, 55-54-2 ATS
#3 seeds: 67-37 SU, 55-47-2 ATS
#4 seeds: 60-34 SU, 48-46 ATS
#5 seeds: 37-38 SU, 35-39-1 ATS
#6 seeds: 34-42 SU, 38-36-2 ATS
#7 seeds: 22-47 SU, 30-38-1 ATS
#8 seeds: 11-49 SU, 34-26 ATS
#9 seeds: 7-53 SU, 25-35 ATS
#10 seeds: 21-30 SU, 30-20-1 ATS
#11 seeds: 18-26 SU, 22-22 ATS
#12 seeds: 18-27 SU, 29-16 ATS
#13 seeds: 5-21 SU, 7-18-1 ATS
#14 seeds: 1-15 SU, 3-13 ATS
#15 seeds: 2-7 SU, 3-6 ATS
#16 seeds: 0-1 SU, 1-0 ATS
Four of the 480 games were Pk'em. Of the remaining 476 games, favorites have had the historical edge, with a 252-219-5 ATS record. As a point of comparison, the 1st round has largely been split down the middle, with the favorites owning a 478-474-17 ATS record.
Some other point spread categories to note:
Teams off an ATS loss (vs. foes not off an ATS loss): 108-79-1 ATS
Teams off back to back SU/ATS wins (vs. foes not off back to back SU/ATS wins): 56-89-3 ATS
Teams off back to back ATS losses (vs. foes not off back to back ATS losses): 76-51-1 ATS
Teams off back to back ATS wins (vs. foes not off back to back ATS wins): 68-95-3 ATS
Teams off three SU/ATS wins (vs. foes not off three SU/ATS wins: 41-70-3 ATS
Teams off three ATS wins (vs. foes not off three ATS wins): 55-79-3 ATS
Teams off three ATS losses (vs. foes not off three ATS losses): 28-18-1 ATS
Teams playing with revenge: 26-23-1 ATS
Teams off double-digit wins (vs. foes not off double-digit wins): 135-136-4 ATS
Teams that covered their previous game by 10+ points (vs. foes that didn't cover by 10+ points): 88-114-2 ATS
Favorites priced from -1 to -3.5 points: 65-58-3 ATS
Favorites priced from -4 to -6.5 points: 84-68-1 ATS
Favorites priced from -7 to -9.5 points: 58-53-1 ATS
Favorites priced from -10 to -12.5 points: 27-25 ATS
Favorites of -13 (or more) points: 18-14 ATS
Good luck, as always...
Al McMordie
There have been 30 NCAA Tournaments since 1991 (the 2020 event was cancelled due to COVID-19).
Here are how the individual seeds have fared:
#1 seeds: 102-17 SU, 60-59 ATS
#2 seeds: 75-36 SU, 55-54-2 ATS
#3 seeds: 67-37 SU, 55-47-2 ATS
#4 seeds: 60-34 SU, 48-46 ATS
#5 seeds: 37-38 SU, 35-39-1 ATS
#6 seeds: 34-42 SU, 38-36-2 ATS
#7 seeds: 22-47 SU, 30-38-1 ATS
#8 seeds: 11-49 SU, 34-26 ATS
#9 seeds: 7-53 SU, 25-35 ATS
#10 seeds: 21-30 SU, 30-20-1 ATS
#11 seeds: 18-26 SU, 22-22 ATS
#12 seeds: 18-27 SU, 29-16 ATS
#13 seeds: 5-21 SU, 7-18-1 ATS
#14 seeds: 1-15 SU, 3-13 ATS
#15 seeds: 2-7 SU, 3-6 ATS
#16 seeds: 0-1 SU, 1-0 ATS
Four of the 480 games were Pk'em. Of the remaining 476 games, favorites have had the historical edge, with a 252-219-5 ATS record. As a point of comparison, the 1st round has largely been split down the middle, with the favorites owning a 478-474-17 ATS record.
Some other point spread categories to note:
Teams off an ATS loss (vs. foes not off an ATS loss): 108-79-1 ATS
Teams off back to back SU/ATS wins (vs. foes not off back to back SU/ATS wins): 56-89-3 ATS
Teams off back to back ATS losses (vs. foes not off back to back ATS losses): 76-51-1 ATS
Teams off back to back ATS wins (vs. foes not off back to back ATS wins): 68-95-3 ATS
Teams off three SU/ATS wins (vs. foes not off three SU/ATS wins: 41-70-3 ATS
Teams off three ATS wins (vs. foes not off three ATS wins): 55-79-3 ATS
Teams off three ATS losses (vs. foes not off three ATS losses): 28-18-1 ATS
Teams playing with revenge: 26-23-1 ATS
Teams off double-digit wins (vs. foes not off double-digit wins): 135-136-4 ATS
Teams that covered their previous game by 10+ points (vs. foes that didn't cover by 10+ points): 88-114-2 ATS
Favorites priced from -1 to -3.5 points: 65-58-3 ATS
Favorites priced from -4 to -6.5 points: 84-68-1 ATS
Favorites priced from -7 to -9.5 points: 58-53-1 ATS
Favorites priced from -10 to -12.5 points: 27-25 ATS
Favorites of -13 (or more) points: 18-14 ATS
Good luck, as always...
Al McMordie
