NCAA Tournament Futures Consideration: San Diego State

Selection Sunday is less than three weeks away and now is the time to weigh your options on futures positions, looking for teams that could improve their seeding and raise their price in the coming weeks. Making repeat trips to the Final Four is difficult but San Diego State is not being priced like a team that was the national runner-up last season, even with a similar profile through a difficult conference. 

San Diego State +7500

The profile for the Aztecs this season is shaping up somewhat similarly to last season. San Diego State shook off a rather miserable recent history for the Mountain West and made it to the national championship game last season as #5 seed. There were close calls along the way, but the Mountain West looks even stronger this season. San Diego State is currently third in the Mountain West standings at 10-5 but they will be favored to win out and move past Boise State for a top two finish.

The Aztecs have wins over three Pac-12 teams plus the best two teams in the WCC in Saint Mary’s and Gonzaga on its non-conference resume as this year’s team could get a better seed than last season, with many projecting San Diego State as a #4 seed right now. 

Brian Dutcher’s team again has some of the very best defensive numbers in the nation and is in the top two of a deep Mountain West in just about every statistical category on defense. The offense has had marginal turnover and 3-point shooting rates but that was true of last season’s team as well. 

Three starters are back from last season’s team plus the addition of USC transfer Reese Walters. Jaedon LaDee was a reserve on last season’s team, but he has emerged as one of the nation’s top players this season as the talent is there for the Aztecs to make another serious run. 

Last year’s run did feature some good fortune including two one-point wins while getting to play Florida Atlantic in the Final Four, but most Final Four teams are going to survive a few close calls in March. That experience should be beneficial this season with a veteran group that is attractively priced despite that pedigree and the potential to be in a strong seeding position. If San Diego State wins out and again wins the Mountain West tournament, rising to a #3 seed is still possible. A top 10 non-conference schedule and a top 20 overall schedule will keep San Diego State in at least a #4 seed position unless they suffer a notably bad loss down the stretch. 

As usual there aren’t a great deal of west coast teams in line for strong seeds in the NCAA Tournament outside of Arizona. Washington State will likely get shipped to a different region to avoid a potential Sweet 16 Pac-12 pairing while Saint Mary’s is a wounded team that would be attractive as a potential pod-mate in a potential 4/5 draw. Opening games in Spokane or Salt Lake City seem likely for San Diego State and if they reach the second weekend the West games are in Los Angeles for a very favorable location if the Aztecs are given a West region position. The Final Four is also in Phoenix should San Diego State again make a big run.