by Kyle Hunter
Friday, Sep 22, 2023I always like to look at perception of teams and gauge when might be the time to sell high or buy low. Today, we’ll take a look at four teams who are unbeaten against the spread so far this year in college football. I think there are signs these teams could be a bit overvalued at this point. Let’s find out who they are and what makes them look overvalued.
Indiana Hoosiers (3-0 ATS) Indiana is 3-0 ATS after outperforming expectations against Ohio State, Indiana State, and Louisville. The Hoosiers hasn’t given up big plays, but I’m concerned by their #105 defensive success rate rating out of 133 teams in the country. Indiana also isn’t explosive at all on offense. They are 101st in the nation in explosiveness. The Hoosiers have been big dogs twice, but now they are favored against Akron on Saturday. Indiana then goes into a very rough part of their schedule. They’ll play at Maryland, at Michigan, vs. Rutgers, at Penn State, and vs. Wisconsin. That’s a brutal stretch for any team. Indiana doesn’t have the depth you would want to have heading into that kind of slate.
Arizona Wildcats (3-0 ATS) I think Arizona is well coached, but the Wildcats have a few major weaknesses. First, Arizona has a terrible secondary. The Wildcats haven’t played anyone who can take advantage of that weakness. That is about to change! After a game at Stanford- Arizona will go to USC and Washington State. They then play Oregon State, UCLA, and Colorado. The Pac 12 is very tough this year (a shame they are breaking up after this season), and I think Arizona will have a hard time beating those more talented teams. Jayden De Laura is a QB I like, but he has thrown 5 interceptions already this year and he does take too many chances. The defense has allowed only 33% on third down conversions this year. I don’t think that can continue.
UNLV (3-0 ATS) UNLV is -1.17 yards per play margin on the season. Michigan hasn’t been running up scores the way some expected (they were without Harbaugh) and Vanderbilt is far worse than people expected. UNLV only has 4 sacks in three games. The Rebels have to be able to generate more of a pass rush to hide their major weakness in the secondary. UNLV is 114th in opposing QBR allowed. Their offensive line ranks 119th in havoc allowed. This isn’t the profile of a team that will just keep covering spreads.
Sam Houston State (2-0 ATS) In two games against BYU and Air Force, Sam Houston is averaging just 2.62 yards per play. That is just brutal. BYU and Air Force are decent defenses, but they aren’t that good! The Bearkats of Sam Houston have only been into the red zone one time all season. Though their defense is very solid, it is going to be hard for them to keep covering spreads without any help from the offense. They want to run the ball, but the offensive line just isn’t good enough. They are averaging only 1.37 yards per carry.
