by Vegas Writer
Monday, Apr 15, 2024With the 2024 NBA Play-In Tournament upon us, let's take a look at the eight teams involved:
WESTERN CONFERENCE
(7) Pelicans
STRENGTH: While the Pelicans were in the play-in tournament previously, they were without Zion Williamson. So of course, this being the first postseason action for Williamson, I'd have to think this is their biggest strength. Williamson averaged 22.9 points, 5.8 rebounds and 5 assists in the regular season while playing a career-high 70 games. His presence will be felt.
WEAKNESS: The Pels struggle to bring a standout player off the bench. Some may believe Jose Alvarado's defense makes him the go-to guy, but his lack of offensive prowess leaves New Orleans without a scoring punch off the bench. Trey Murphy III can answer the call at times, but their lack of offensive depth is concerning.
ATS WATCH: The Pelicans failed to cover eight of their last 12 to close the regular season.
(8) Lakers
STRENGTH: No question about it, the strength is the combination of LeBron James and A.D. And when they’re on, they rank among the best duos in the league, combining for 50.2 points, 19.9 rebounds, and 11.7 assists per game. In opening against a very familiar foe, especially LeBron from his days in Cleveland, the King could very well hold court in New Orleans in the opener.
WEAKNESS: An ever-changing and inconsistent backcourt. A lot of that has to do with the fact that James has his hands on the ball for the majority of the possessions. The Lakers are also known to be injury prone which has also led to lineup and rotation inconsistencies. Chemistry, or lack thereof, could work against them.
ATS WATCH: The Lakers were the exact opposite of the Warriors, with a 38-44 ATS mark during the regular season, one of the bottom eight records in the NBA.
(9) Kings
STRENGTH: Sacramento is a very energetic bunch with an extremely quick backcourt of De’Aaron Fox and Malik Monk. That duo has a nice chemistry and knows each other's nuances, which is why we see them play hard on both sides of the court, spurring the efficiency Sacramento tends to enjoy.
WEAKNESS: As hard as we've seen them play, the Kings rank next-to-last in 3-point defense, allowing the opposition to hit 39.1% from long range. Opposing offenses know it, too, as teams challenge them every game, attempting a league eighth-highest 33.7 3-pointers per game.
ATS WATCH: The Kings closed the season on an 8-5 ATS roll.
(10) Warriors
STRENGTH: Steph Curry is all I should have to say, but we know there's much more to this team. Once again, surrounding the experience coach Steve Kerr has on board, there is a young and trustworthy bench consisting of Brandin Podziemski, Moses Moody, Trayce Jackson-Davis, and Jonathan Kuminga. Coming out of the play-in round with a team like this should have the higher seeds on alert.
WEAKNESS: The Warriors are severely undersized. Jackson-Davis (6-9) and Dario Saric (6-10) are their tallest players. And often, we'll see them with Kuminga (6-7) or Draymond Green (6-6) playing the center position. Dealing with A.D. in the first game of the play-in round isn't going to be easy. Plus, as big of a strength as he can be, keep an eye on Green’s antics which often are momentum killers and a weakness for Golden State.
ATS WATCH: The Warriors were a top-10 team at the window, as they were 44-38 ATS this season.
EASTERN CONFERENCE
(7) 76ers
STRENGTH: One thing we know about the Sixers, expectations in Philly are certainly bigger than Allen Iverson's recently unveiled statue. After all, the Sixers were a top-10 team in both adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency when Joel Embiid was healthy earlier in the season. Through Jan. 30, Philly was shooting 47.6% from the floor while holding teams to 46.8%. But from Feb. 1 through March 31, the Sixers shot 44.6% from the field while the opposition was shooting 48%. With Embiid back for Philadelphia, and his supporting cast healthy, this team looks like it can make a deep run in the playoffs.
WEAKNESS: The 76ers' ho-hum pace could pose a problem against a seasoned Heat team from last year's NBA Finals. Sitting 18th in the NBA with 97.5 possessions per 48 minutes, Philly will have to keep up with Miami when it pushes the tempo, looking to make scoring runs. Philly averaged just 107.7 points per game in its last 20 games, well below the 116.8 ppg. it was scoring over the first 62 games.
ATS WATCH: The 76ers were a covering machine, ranking second in the league with a 49-33 ATS mark.
(8) Heat
STRENGTH: Jimmy Butler. Point blank, period. He's Miami's biggest strength and the obstacle the 76ers have to worry about. Butler closed the campaign averaging 18.8 points per game on 49.1% shooting, including 41.7% from 3-point range. Remarkably, his career average against the 76ers is 18.8 points per game, on 47.9% shooting, including 35.3% from beyond the arc. Butler can single-handedly lead Miami to the next round.
WEAKNESS: If Butler isn't on point, this isn't an offense that can afford to have an off night. The Heat finished the season ranked 21st with 114.4 points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time. That number did improve the final two weeks of the season, but that doesn't mean it will translate into the play-in round against Philly's defense. Miami will have to do a better job.
ATS WATCH: The Heat closed the season on a 7-4 ATS roll.
(9) Bulls
STRENGTH: Homecourt is a big edge for the Bulls, who won the season series with the Hawks, 2-1. Strange as it was, Atlanta won the one meeting Trae Young missed. Chicago boasts all-defense stalwart Alex Caruso, whose number will be called upon to neutralize Young or Dejounte Murray.
WEAKNESS: Overcoming injuries will be tough, with the Bulls missing Zach LaVine and Patrick Williams. LaVine was the team's No. 2 scorer with 19.5 points per game, but he also played just 25 games. It was actually a bit shocking they made it in with LaVine missing as many games as he did. Williams played 43 games, and he wasn't a scoring machine with just 10.0 points per game, but he provided 27.3 minutes per game and could have been pivotal with timely shots or assists.
ATS WATCH: While the Bulls covered their last three, make note they failed to cover 11 of their last 19.
(10) Hawks
STRENGTH: Despite finishing 10th in the Eastern Conference, this was an elite offensive team that finished fifth in the league with 118.3 points per game during the regular season. It helps that the Hawks clean the glass on the offensive end of the floor, ranking third with 12.5 offensive boards per game. The second-chance opportunities are crucial, especially with the number of possessions you can expect. Atlanta is tied for fifth in the NBA with 100.1 possessions per 48 minutes.
WEAKNESS: Sure, it's easy to point out the injuries as their weakness, as I did with the Bulls, but I'm baffled elsewhere. Can someone justify not converting two-way wing Vít Krejčí to a roster contract? The Hawks should have done this after he proved himself with an average of 15 minutes in 19 of the final 20 regular season games, including starts in 11 of them. Instead, he's ineligible for the postseason and the Hawks' rotation is even thinner.
ATS WATCH: The Hawks were the worst team to bet on this season, finishing a league-worst 29-53 at the window.
WESTERN CONFERENCE
(7) Pelicans
STRENGTH: While the Pelicans were in the play-in tournament previously, they were without Zion Williamson. So of course, this being the first postseason action for Williamson, I'd have to think this is their biggest strength. Williamson averaged 22.9 points, 5.8 rebounds and 5 assists in the regular season while playing a career-high 70 games. His presence will be felt.
WEAKNESS: The Pels struggle to bring a standout player off the bench. Some may believe Jose Alvarado's defense makes him the go-to guy, but his lack of offensive prowess leaves New Orleans without a scoring punch off the bench. Trey Murphy III can answer the call at times, but their lack of offensive depth is concerning.
ATS WATCH: The Pelicans failed to cover eight of their last 12 to close the regular season.
(8) Lakers
STRENGTH: No question about it, the strength is the combination of LeBron James and A.D. And when they’re on, they rank among the best duos in the league, combining for 50.2 points, 19.9 rebounds, and 11.7 assists per game. In opening against a very familiar foe, especially LeBron from his days in Cleveland, the King could very well hold court in New Orleans in the opener.
WEAKNESS: An ever-changing and inconsistent backcourt. A lot of that has to do with the fact that James has his hands on the ball for the majority of the possessions. The Lakers are also known to be injury prone which has also led to lineup and rotation inconsistencies. Chemistry, or lack thereof, could work against them.
ATS WATCH: The Lakers were the exact opposite of the Warriors, with a 38-44 ATS mark during the regular season, one of the bottom eight records in the NBA.
(9) Kings
STRENGTH: Sacramento is a very energetic bunch with an extremely quick backcourt of De’Aaron Fox and Malik Monk. That duo has a nice chemistry and knows each other's nuances, which is why we see them play hard on both sides of the court, spurring the efficiency Sacramento tends to enjoy.
WEAKNESS: As hard as we've seen them play, the Kings rank next-to-last in 3-point defense, allowing the opposition to hit 39.1% from long range. Opposing offenses know it, too, as teams challenge them every game, attempting a league eighth-highest 33.7 3-pointers per game.
ATS WATCH: The Kings closed the season on an 8-5 ATS roll.
(10) Warriors
STRENGTH: Steph Curry is all I should have to say, but we know there's much more to this team. Once again, surrounding the experience coach Steve Kerr has on board, there is a young and trustworthy bench consisting of Brandin Podziemski, Moses Moody, Trayce Jackson-Davis, and Jonathan Kuminga. Coming out of the play-in round with a team like this should have the higher seeds on alert.
WEAKNESS: The Warriors are severely undersized. Jackson-Davis (6-9) and Dario Saric (6-10) are their tallest players. And often, we'll see them with Kuminga (6-7) or Draymond Green (6-6) playing the center position. Dealing with A.D. in the first game of the play-in round isn't going to be easy. Plus, as big of a strength as he can be, keep an eye on Green’s antics which often are momentum killers and a weakness for Golden State.
ATS WATCH: The Warriors were a top-10 team at the window, as they were 44-38 ATS this season.
EASTERN CONFERENCE
(7) 76ers
STRENGTH: One thing we know about the Sixers, expectations in Philly are certainly bigger than Allen Iverson's recently unveiled statue. After all, the Sixers were a top-10 team in both adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency when Joel Embiid was healthy earlier in the season. Through Jan. 30, Philly was shooting 47.6% from the floor while holding teams to 46.8%. But from Feb. 1 through March 31, the Sixers shot 44.6% from the field while the opposition was shooting 48%. With Embiid back for Philadelphia, and his supporting cast healthy, this team looks like it can make a deep run in the playoffs.
WEAKNESS: The 76ers' ho-hum pace could pose a problem against a seasoned Heat team from last year's NBA Finals. Sitting 18th in the NBA with 97.5 possessions per 48 minutes, Philly will have to keep up with Miami when it pushes the tempo, looking to make scoring runs. Philly averaged just 107.7 points per game in its last 20 games, well below the 116.8 ppg. it was scoring over the first 62 games.
ATS WATCH: The 76ers were a covering machine, ranking second in the league with a 49-33 ATS mark.
(8) Heat
STRENGTH: Jimmy Butler. Point blank, period. He's Miami's biggest strength and the obstacle the 76ers have to worry about. Butler closed the campaign averaging 18.8 points per game on 49.1% shooting, including 41.7% from 3-point range. Remarkably, his career average against the 76ers is 18.8 points per game, on 47.9% shooting, including 35.3% from beyond the arc. Butler can single-handedly lead Miami to the next round.
WEAKNESS: If Butler isn't on point, this isn't an offense that can afford to have an off night. The Heat finished the season ranked 21st with 114.4 points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time. That number did improve the final two weeks of the season, but that doesn't mean it will translate into the play-in round against Philly's defense. Miami will have to do a better job.
ATS WATCH: The Heat closed the season on a 7-4 ATS roll.
(9) Bulls
STRENGTH: Homecourt is a big edge for the Bulls, who won the season series with the Hawks, 2-1. Strange as it was, Atlanta won the one meeting Trae Young missed. Chicago boasts all-defense stalwart Alex Caruso, whose number will be called upon to neutralize Young or Dejounte Murray.
WEAKNESS: Overcoming injuries will be tough, with the Bulls missing Zach LaVine and Patrick Williams. LaVine was the team's No. 2 scorer with 19.5 points per game, but he also played just 25 games. It was actually a bit shocking they made it in with LaVine missing as many games as he did. Williams played 43 games, and he wasn't a scoring machine with just 10.0 points per game, but he provided 27.3 minutes per game and could have been pivotal with timely shots or assists.
ATS WATCH: While the Bulls covered their last three, make note they failed to cover 11 of their last 19.
(10) Hawks
STRENGTH: Despite finishing 10th in the Eastern Conference, this was an elite offensive team that finished fifth in the league with 118.3 points per game during the regular season. It helps that the Hawks clean the glass on the offensive end of the floor, ranking third with 12.5 offensive boards per game. The second-chance opportunities are crucial, especially with the number of possessions you can expect. Atlanta is tied for fifth in the NBA with 100.1 possessions per 48 minutes.
WEAKNESS: Sure, it's easy to point out the injuries as their weakness, as I did with the Bulls, but I'm baffled elsewhere. Can someone justify not converting two-way wing Vít Krejčí to a roster contract? The Hawks should have done this after he proved himself with an average of 15 minutes in 19 of the final 20 regular season games, including starts in 11 of them. Instead, he's ineligible for the postseason and the Hawks' rotation is even thinner.
ATS WATCH: The Hawks were the worst team to bet on this season, finishing a league-worst 29-53 at the window.
