by Kyle Hunter
Friday, Mar 29, 2024We’re entering the final weeks of the NBA regular season. Most teams have played 72 or 73 games. I wanted to take a look at how teams are being valued in the betting marketplace and see if there could be some good buy low or sell high opportunities coming to finish the regular season or even at the start of the playoffs in some cases.
2 Teams To Buy Low
- Cleveland Cavs (35-38 ATS) The Cavs are a little below .500 against the spread for the season, and they are just 2-5 ATS in their last seven games. Cleveland started the season well, but has been cold of late. Donovan Mitchell is getting healthy again and Evan Mobley is back in the lineup again too. Cleveland’s defense gives them great upside. They are still within reach for the second seed in the Eastern Conference. I like this team going to the finish of the regular season.
- Phoenix Suns (30-41 ATS) The Phoenix Suns just defeated the Denver Nuggets in Denver. Phoenix has been wildly inconsistent, but there is no denying their upside. Phoenix is in the seventh spot in the playoff standings right now. If they move up one more spot they could avoid the play-in tournament. Phoenix has been playing better defense of late, and we know they have a ton of scoring options. They play the Clippers twice and then Sacramento and Minnesota in the final games of the season.
2 Teams to Sell High
- Orlando Magic (47-25 ATS) The Orlando Magic have been a money making machine this season. I think they are starting to be a little overpriced in the market. Orlando’s home/road splits this season are drastic. The Magic play several key games on the road late in the regular season. I can’t trust them in those spots. Orlando has a three game road trip to Houston, Milwaukee, and Philadelphia in April. This is a much improved team that has been fun to watch, but I don’t think betting them going forward will be a money making strategy.
- Boston Celtics (38-32 ATS) Boston will be the number one overall seed in the Eastern Conference. Boston is clearly the best team in the Eastern Conference now, but between now and the end of the regular season I think it could be dangerous to back the Celtics. They have plenty of reasons to sit key players and prepare for the playoffs rather than trying to cover numbers in late March and early April.
Situational betting late in the NBA season is crucial. I also think that looking to grab teams out of favor and sell teams the market is too high on is a great exercise this time of the year.
