by Al McMordie
Saturday, Jul 20, 2024NBA Summer League has started, so what better time to look at the odds for the Top 15 candidates for NBA Rookie of the Year. These odds are courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook, as of Saturday, July 20:
Zach Edey +600
Zaccharie Risacher +700
Reed Sheppard +800
Alexandre Sarr +850
Stephon Castle +1000
Dalton Knecht +1000
Matas Buzelis +1200
Donovan Clingan +1500
Carlton Carrington +1500
Rob Dillingham +1700
Ronald Holland +2000
Tidjane Salaun +2500
Cody Williams +2500
Jared McCain +3500
Kel'el Ware +4000
Certainly, arguments can be made for guys like Reed Sheppard, Stephon Castle, Zach Edey and Alexandre Sarr -- all of whom will be in the running for the top rookie award. But I'm going to look at a little bigger of a longshot in Chicago's hometown kid, Matas Buzelis. The #11 pick in the draft bypassed college to play with G League Ignite last season, and had a good (but not necessarily great) season. The knock on Buzelis was that he only shot 27% from 3-point land, and that was the greatest reason why he fell in the draft, after being projected to go around #5. Indeed, I wanted my favorite team (the San Antonio Spurs) to take Buzelis at #4, and then take the best guard available (i.e., Stephon Castle, Devin Carter) at #8. The Spurs, instead, took Castle at #4 and then punted at #8 when they drafted Rob Dillingham for the Minnesota Timberwolves, and took back a 2031 first-round pick. The Bulls -- who had contemplated trading up to #3 to draft Buzelis -- were the beneficiary, and happily took the Windy City native at #11.
One of the keys to winning Rookie of the Year is that you must be in a good position to contribute. That is, to pile up statistics. Getting starter minutes greatly helps. And since Chicago is in a rebuilding mode, Buzelis will be in the starting lineup. Not all the top rookie contenders (e.g., Sheppard, Castle, Knecht) will necessarily be starters, so I tend to scratch those players from Futures Bet considerations.
The Bulls traded their leading scorer, DeMar DeRozan (17.2 ppg) to the Sacramento Kings, and are currently shopping Zach LaVine (15.0 ppg). Even if LaVine stays, the opportunity will be there for Buzelis to score in the low-to-mid-double-digits. In four games thus far, Buzelis has scored 15, 28, 18 and 11 (18.0 ppg).
A secondary reason I like Buzelis is that he will walk into the league as one of the premier dunkers. And he might be the odds-on favorite to win the All-Star Weekend Dunk competition (assuming he gets invited (which he should)). You can see examples of his dunking ability here and here and here. So, Buzelis will be the most exciting and electrifying scorer in the rookie class, and will be a staple on ESPN SportsCenter's Top 10 Plays. That will boost his popularity, and will help in the voting should he have the requisite stats.
Finally, I like the 12-1 odds on Buzelis. Edey, understandably, is the favorite to win Rookie of the Year. He could be a valuable piece in Memphis' return to prominence. But his odds of +600 are too short in my estimation, given the nature of this year's rookie class. Sarr also is among the shortest odds, and will get playing time. But I think his offensive game is too raw to warrant an investment. Consider that Sarr was 0-for-15 from the floor, and scored 0 points in a loss to Portland in his 3rd Summer League game.
I'll take Buzelis at +1200 to win Rookie of the Year.
Good luck, as always,
Al McMordie
Zach Edey +600
Zaccharie Risacher +700
Reed Sheppard +800
Alexandre Sarr +850
Stephon Castle +1000
Dalton Knecht +1000
Matas Buzelis +1200
Donovan Clingan +1500
Carlton Carrington +1500
Rob Dillingham +1700
Ronald Holland +2000
Tidjane Salaun +2500
Cody Williams +2500
Jared McCain +3500
Kel'el Ware +4000
Certainly, arguments can be made for guys like Reed Sheppard, Stephon Castle, Zach Edey and Alexandre Sarr -- all of whom will be in the running for the top rookie award. But I'm going to look at a little bigger of a longshot in Chicago's hometown kid, Matas Buzelis. The #11 pick in the draft bypassed college to play with G League Ignite last season, and had a good (but not necessarily great) season. The knock on Buzelis was that he only shot 27% from 3-point land, and that was the greatest reason why he fell in the draft, after being projected to go around #5. Indeed, I wanted my favorite team (the San Antonio Spurs) to take Buzelis at #4, and then take the best guard available (i.e., Stephon Castle, Devin Carter) at #8. The Spurs, instead, took Castle at #4 and then punted at #8 when they drafted Rob Dillingham for the Minnesota Timberwolves, and took back a 2031 first-round pick. The Bulls -- who had contemplated trading up to #3 to draft Buzelis -- were the beneficiary, and happily took the Windy City native at #11.
One of the keys to winning Rookie of the Year is that you must be in a good position to contribute. That is, to pile up statistics. Getting starter minutes greatly helps. And since Chicago is in a rebuilding mode, Buzelis will be in the starting lineup. Not all the top rookie contenders (e.g., Sheppard, Castle, Knecht) will necessarily be starters, so I tend to scratch those players from Futures Bet considerations.
The Bulls traded their leading scorer, DeMar DeRozan (17.2 ppg) to the Sacramento Kings, and are currently shopping Zach LaVine (15.0 ppg). Even if LaVine stays, the opportunity will be there for Buzelis to score in the low-to-mid-double-digits. In four games thus far, Buzelis has scored 15, 28, 18 and 11 (18.0 ppg).
A secondary reason I like Buzelis is that he will walk into the league as one of the premier dunkers. And he might be the odds-on favorite to win the All-Star Weekend Dunk competition (assuming he gets invited (which he should)). You can see examples of his dunking ability here and here and here. So, Buzelis will be the most exciting and electrifying scorer in the rookie class, and will be a staple on ESPN SportsCenter's Top 10 Plays. That will boost his popularity, and will help in the voting should he have the requisite stats.
Finally, I like the 12-1 odds on Buzelis. Edey, understandably, is the favorite to win Rookie of the Year. He could be a valuable piece in Memphis' return to prominence. But his odds of +600 are too short in my estimation, given the nature of this year's rookie class. Sarr also is among the shortest odds, and will get playing time. But I think his offensive game is too raw to warrant an investment. Consider that Sarr was 0-for-15 from the floor, and scored 0 points in a loss to Portland in his 3rd Summer League game.
I'll take Buzelis at +1200 to win Rookie of the Year.
Good luck, as always,
Al McMordie
