by Will Rogers
Monday, May 06, 2024Most teams have now played around 35 of 162 games. Obviously, there's still a long way to go. Yet, we're already getting a good idea about which teams are likely to contend for the postseason and which ones aren't. The playoff picture in the National League is particularly clear for this point of the season. I've taken a closer look below. I've also included a long-shot team which I feel has a good chance at sneaking into the postseason and potentially making some noise when it gets there.
Understanding the Format
Twelve teams make the playoffs, six from each league. That includes the three division winners and three Wildcard teams, non-divisional winners with the three best records. Once the postseason starts, the #1 and #2 seeds receive a bye in the Wildcard Round. The #3 seed, the division winner with the worst record, hosts the #6 seed. The #4 seed hosts the #5 seed. The Wildcard Round consists of a 3-game series. To ensure that the top team doesn't face another division winner, in the Division Round, the #1 seed faces the winner of the #4 vs. #5 series. The #2 sees faces the winner of the #3 vs. #6 series.
Can A Wildcard Team Win The World Series?
Last year, the Texas Rangers defeated Arizona in the World Series. Both teams were Wildcard entrants. Texas was the #5 seed in the American League while Arizona was the #6 seed in the National League. That wasn't the first time that a Wildcard team won it all. In fact, it happens with relative regularity. The Marlins won out of a Wildcard spot in 1997 and 2003. The Angels did so in 2002. The Red Sox accomplished the feat in 2004; the Cardinals, in 2011; the Giants, in 2014 and the Nationals, in 2019.
Current NL Playoff Projections
The Dodgers, Braves and Phillies are all very likely to make the playoffs. It currently appears probable that either the Cubs or the Brewers will win the NL Central. There's a good chance that the other will earn a Wildcard spot. So, that's five of the six NL playoff teams right here. The final spot figures to include one of the following six teams: St. Louis, San Diego, New York, Cincinnati, Arizona or San Francisco. Of the six, the Padres currently have the best chance of making the playoffs. FanGraphs has them at 48%. The other five are all less than 30%.
San Diego at 70-1 To Win the World Series
Loaded with high-priced talent, the Padres were a popular pick to win the World Series last year. Things didn't go as planned. They lost a few pieces this season. Most assume that they missed their chance. However, the team and lineup is still stacked. Dylan Cease was a great offseason acquisition and the recent trade for Luis Arraez immediately made them better. They could use another top level starter but should be able to acquire one at the trade deadline. Draft Kings currently has the Padres at +7000 to win the World Series. I've explained that they have a reasonably good chance to make the playoffs. I've also demonstrated that teams can go the distance out of the WC spot. If you're looking for a long-shot to back for the World Series, take a look at the San Diego Padres!
Understanding the Format
Twelve teams make the playoffs, six from each league. That includes the three division winners and three Wildcard teams, non-divisional winners with the three best records. Once the postseason starts, the #1 and #2 seeds receive a bye in the Wildcard Round. The #3 seed, the division winner with the worst record, hosts the #6 seed. The #4 seed hosts the #5 seed. The Wildcard Round consists of a 3-game series. To ensure that the top team doesn't face another division winner, in the Division Round, the #1 seed faces the winner of the #4 vs. #5 series. The #2 sees faces the winner of the #3 vs. #6 series.
Can A Wildcard Team Win The World Series?
Last year, the Texas Rangers defeated Arizona in the World Series. Both teams were Wildcard entrants. Texas was the #5 seed in the American League while Arizona was the #6 seed in the National League. That wasn't the first time that a Wildcard team won it all. In fact, it happens with relative regularity. The Marlins won out of a Wildcard spot in 1997 and 2003. The Angels did so in 2002. The Red Sox accomplished the feat in 2004; the Cardinals, in 2011; the Giants, in 2014 and the Nationals, in 2019.
Current NL Playoff Projections
The Dodgers, Braves and Phillies are all very likely to make the playoffs. It currently appears probable that either the Cubs or the Brewers will win the NL Central. There's a good chance that the other will earn a Wildcard spot. So, that's five of the six NL playoff teams right here. The final spot figures to include one of the following six teams: St. Louis, San Diego, New York, Cincinnati, Arizona or San Francisco. Of the six, the Padres currently have the best chance of making the playoffs. FanGraphs has them at 48%. The other five are all less than 30%.
San Diego at 70-1 To Win the World Series
Loaded with high-priced talent, the Padres were a popular pick to win the World Series last year. Things didn't go as planned. They lost a few pieces this season. Most assume that they missed their chance. However, the team and lineup is still stacked. Dylan Cease was a great offseason acquisition and the recent trade for Luis Arraez immediately made them better. They could use another top level starter but should be able to acquire one at the trade deadline. Draft Kings currently has the Padres at +7000 to win the World Series. I've explained that they have a reasonably good chance to make the playoffs. I've also demonstrated that teams can go the distance out of the WC spot. If you're looking for a long-shot to back for the World Series, take a look at the San Diego Padres!
