Mountain West Conference Title Contenders

The Mountain West had a breakthrough season last year, putting four teams in the NCAA Tournament. Three of those teams lost their first games in the bracket to add to a miserable recent history for the league in the postseason but San Diego State made it all the way to the title game as a #5 seed to put credibility on the league. The Mountain West wound up rated better than the ACC and AAC last season and this season it appears to have the potential to be a multi-bid league again with a deep group of quality teams, currently featuring seven teams that rank as top 100 squads. The conference season is rather young with most teams having played only seven games, here is a look at the top contenders in the Mountain West for the 2023-24 season:

 

UTAH STATE: Utah State is the leader in the conference with a 6-1 start, but they lost by 13 at New Mexico and needed overtime for the win over Boise State. Danny Sprinkle is in his first season leading the program after taking Montana State to the NCAA Tournament the past two seasons and so far, he has held up the high standard Ryan Odom has left the past two seasons with the Aggies winning 26 games last season. This year’s team played a tougher non-conference schedule than it looks as while there are no top 50 wins, the Aggies consistently played decent quality teams and only played two games outside the top 250. Both meetings with San Diego State are still to come on the schedule as it is hard to see the Aggies maintaining the top position in the standings, so far facing the 8th most difficult path among the 11 teams. Utah State will only play Nevada once and has defeated UNLV in the only meeting this season in the unbalanced MWC draw. 

 

NEW MEXICO: With five straight wins including a few convincing results, New Mexico is making noise as possibly the team to beat in the conference. The two early January losses came to middle-of-the-pack squads however and with the ultra-fast pace of play, cold shooting spells can happen. New Mexico is also surprisingly poor free throw shooting team. The current five-game winning streak includes notable wins over San Diego State, Utah State, and Nevada, but all three of those big wins were at home. New Mexico is just 2-2 S/U in conference road games, losing to Colorado State and UNLV. The two teams that New Mexico plays just once in the conference path are San Jose State and Fresno State, possibly the worst two teams in the conference, as if Richard Pitino’s squad delivers the title, they will do so through one of the most difficult paths in the league. In the early season numbers, the Lobos have the #2 offense and the #2 defense but the season’s final four road games will all be difficult tests as it won’t be a shock if this groups slips from contention by the end of the season.

 

SAN DIEGO STATE: After making it to the Final Four and the national title game last season, San Diego State has a tough act to follow. Brian Dutcher’s team has four losses already including two road losses in conference play and the Aztecs are yet to defeat any of the top contenders in the current MWC standings. San Diego State should be set for another NCAA Tournament bid however doing great work in a difficult non-conference campaign that including three wins vs. Pac-12 teams plus wins over Saint Mary’s and Gonzaga. The Aztecs could fall short of the league title this season as they will face six of the next seven games vs. the top tier of the conference and the overall draw will be one of the toughest as they face Air Force and Wyoming just once each while doubling up on all the top teams. 

 

BOISE STATE: Boise State’s inclusion in the NCAA Tournament last season was a bit controversial and the Broncos saw an early exit in a 7-10 game vs. Northwestern after finishing in a tie for second place in the MWC standings. This year’s team has lost six games already, but all have been top 100 results. A concern for the Broncos is that both losses in a 5-2 MWC start have come at home. Boise State does have quality league wins already defeating Colorado State, Nevada, and San Diego State, and the Broncos picked up four top 100 non-conference wins as the overall strength of schedule rates strongly for Boise State. The Broncos don’t have the most favorable draw as they have just a single match with Wyoming and lost the lone meeting with UNLV already. The next three road games are at New Mexico, at Colorado State, and at Utah State, as Boise State is more likely to slip to near .500 in league play than to climb to the top in the next two weeks. This is a squad that could climb back into contention late in the season, however. Boise State’s defense has been MWC Championship caliber this season, but this has been one of the worst shooting teams so far in conference play. 

 

WYOMING: With a ranking in the 180s, Wyoming is out of place on this list but with recent home wins over Nevada and Colorado State, the Cowboys are 4-3 and in fifth place in the current standings. Wyoming does not have a road win this season and lost three non-conference games outside the nation’s top 200 as this is not a NCAA Tournament team without a MWC Tournament title. Wyoming has looked like a team that can make some noise as an upset threat in the conference season however, particularly at home. In early February Wyoming hosts New Mexico and Utah State and with only one meeting with San Diego State already out of the way, plus only one game with Boise State this season, Wyoming may finish with a stronger conference record than the overall ratings would predict. 

 

COLORADO STATE: Starting 9-0 and then 12-1 put Colorado State on the map as a serious MWC contender, particularly with an impressive November run that included consecutive wins over Boston College, Creighton, Colorado, and Washington. The Rams also beat New Mexico at home to open league play but have since stumbled with losses in four of the past six games to slip to 3-4 in the standings. One of the losses came at Wyoming while this squad also barely beat Air Force and UNLV in recent home games. The Rams host San Diego State this week and still have both meetings with the Aztecs remaining. The offense has good overall numbers, but the shooting percentages have fallen considerably since conference play started. Colorado State has one of the worst schedules in the conference as they play Fresno State and San Jose State just once each and will face a gauntlet of tough games in late February as a once firm position in the NCAA Tournament field may get tested down the stretch for the Rams. 

 

NEVADA: With losses in four of the past five games Nevada’s season is slipping away as the Wolf Pack were once 15-1. Nevada didn’t play a great non-conference schedule but did pick up meaningful wins over Washington, TCU, and Georgia Tech. The conference path so far has been difficult but a break in the schedule is only having to play Utah State once this season. The past three losses have all been road games as a home heavy stretch of games in early February could get the Wolf Pack back on the map in the conference race, though Sunday’s 89-55 loss to New Mexico was not encouraging. Nevada lost by 25 in a First Four game last season as if Steve Alford’s team winds up on the bubble again they may not get the benefit of the doubt. 

 

UNLV: UNLV isn’t on pace to match last season’s solid 19-13 season sitting at just 10-9 but the Rebels have drawn the most difficult MWC path at this point in the season and have held their own. The Rebels have wins over New Mexico and Boise State and losses to Utah State and Colorado State came by slim margins. UNLV had a stunning home loss in late January to Air Force by 32 points, simply one of the more bizarre results of the season with UNLV a double-digit favorite in that game. UNLV’s conference path includes facing Utah State and Boise State just once each, with a split in those difficult games already out of the way. UNLV will face the lesser teams in the conference in six of the next nine games as this is a squad that is likely to wind up with a winning conference record and shouldn’t be ruled out as a sleeper to climb into contention. The offensive numbers are appealing for the Rebels with a low turnover rate and strong inside scoring results with an experienced roster for Kevin Kruger. UNLV beat Creighton in December for a prominent non-conference win, but the program has a lot of work to do to boost its postseason resume already having three losses outside the nation’s top 100.