by Kyle Hunter
Friday, Apr 26, 2024We are a month into the MLB season. It is getting far enough into the season now to look at season to date data and compare it to the advanced stats to see what units are actually as good as they appear. Let’s take a look at the top six bullpens in the majors by ERA this year. I’ll also list their FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) and SIERA (Skilled Interactive Earned Run Average). These are two solid predictive advanced statistics. We’ll take a look at the top six team by team.
- Detroit Tigers (2.06 ERA, 4.04 FIP, 3.62 SIERA) The Tigers have easily the best bullpen ERA in the majors so far this year, but they are almost exactly middle of the pack in FIP and SIERA. I think Detroit’s bullpen has enough depth that they are better than league average, but they aren’t going to be able to keep up their amazing start either. The Tigers have allowed a batting average on balls in play of only .214, which is not sustainable.
- Cleveland Guardians (2.24 ERA, 2.60 FIP, 2.85 SIERA) Cleveland is first in both FIP and SIERA, so the advanced statistics are loving this Cleveland bullpen. There are no major signs of regression for Cleveland. Their batting average on balls in play allowed is .274. This Guardians bullpen is legitimately excellent! Clase is dominant and Gaddis has stepped up and been really good this year too.
- Seattle Mariners (2.58 ERA, 3.83 FIP, 3.33 SIERA) A low .241 batting average on balls in play suggests some regression is coming for this group. They have also stranded 80% of runners on base. The Mariners bullpen walks too many guys to remain this elite. Speier is very good, but opponents won’t continue hitting only .143 against him.
- Minnesota Twins (2.72 ERA, 3.42 FIP, 2.76 SIERA) Minnesota is a top five bullpen according to all the advanced statistics. It has helped them that they have played a relatively easy schedule, but I do think the Twins bullpen is very good. They have a bunch of guys with excellent swing and miss stuff. A consistently good unit!
- Milwaukee Brewers (2.85 ERA, 3.76 FIP, 3.4 SIERA) Opponents have only a .239 batting average on balls in play which suggests regression to the mean could be coming. However, the Brewers Devin Williams is expected back around the All Star Break, and he is clearly their best relief pitcher. In the interim, the Brewers bullpen likely comes back down to earth. Later in the season, I think they’ll be elite again.
- New York Yankees (2.86 ERA, 3.91 FIP, 4.06 SIERA) The Yankees bullpen is a decent one. Clay Holmes is an elite reliever. The problem I have with the Yankees bullpen is their depth isn’t great. I don’t trust Luke Weaver to be good on a consistent basis. Victor Gonzalez has a 2.89 ERA and a 5.82 FIP. This bullpen is overrated right now.
