by Chuck Sommers
Thursday, Sep 02, 2021
Game time: 8:10 p.m. ET
Venue: American Family Field, Milwaukee, WI
Where to watch: Bally Sports Midwest, Bally Sports Wisconsin
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Brewers -170, Cardinals +150; Over 7.5 -110, Under 7.5 -110; Run line: +1.5 -145, -1.5 +125
BetMGM: Brewers -161, Cardinals +135; Over 7.5 -105, Under 7.5 -115; Run line: +1.5 -161, -1.5 +135
Caesars: Brewers -160, Cardinals +150; Over 7.5 -110, Under 7.5 -110; Run line: +1.5 -145, -1.5 +125
Season record
Cardinals: 68-64 (3rd place, NL Central)
Brewers: 82-52 (1st place, NL Central)
Larry Ness closed August having earned +$21,301 (at $100/unit) in MLB since Opening Day. He opened September with a 2-1 Wednesday (+$857), highlighted by his 10* win on Boston over the Tampa Bay Rays. 'Light' Thursday MLB card but you "won't want to miss" Larry's 10* Division Total of the Year (all O/U plays 8-4-1 in August MLB).
Cardinals - Brewers preview and analysis
Recent form
Cardinals: 6-4 in last 10
Brewers: 6-4 in last 10
You would think the Milwaukee Brewers would be an automatic lock at home. Having the third best record in the National League and one of only four teams to reach 80 wins as of Sept. 2 should be telling factors.
Not this year. The Brewers are only 36-29 at American Family Field, but a league-best 46-23 mark away from the venue formerly known as Coors Field is what’s driven the Brew Crew to this point.
Milwaukee returns home after a seven-game road trip to face the St. Louis Cardinals in Game 1 of what is a crucial three-game series for the road team that has major postseason implications.
While the focus should be on the home team as the Brewers inch closer to a National League Central title, the Cardinals have clawed back into the wild card race after taking two of three from the Cincinnati Reds this week at Great American Ball Park. The Cardinals took the first game of the doubleheader 5-4, then lost 12-2 in the series finale in seven innings.
Suddenly, the Cardinals are 2.5 games behind the Reds for the second wild-card spot. They’ll still need to pass the San Diego Padres, who enter Thursday only a half-game back of the Reds.
The Cardinals’ batters have been disappointing this season, batting .240 and good for 17th in the league. The last eight games may be a sign of things to come for the Cardinals offense; St. Louis is batting .266 with 13 home runs and 40 RBI. That’s carried the pitching staff that has been rocked the past 13 games, taking a 4.20 ERA and a home run per game given up.
Milwaukee thrives itself on pitching and is how the Brewers have gotten this far. In the last month, the Brewers have totaled a 3.36 ERA while only allowing 20 home runs. Starter Freddy Peralta, one of Milwaukee’s top pitchers this season will take the mound against St. Louis veteran starting pitcher Adam Wainwright in this matchup.
St. Louis’ long road trip will end after this Brewers series. The Cardinals will host the Los Angeles Dodgers for a four-game series at Busch Stadium starting Monday.
Prediction
Now that the Cardinals have newfound life in the playoff race, expect them to come out aggressive in this first game. Wainwright on the bump should be enough for a clutch victory. Cardinals win 6-5.
Betting trends
The Cardinals are 6-13 as an underdog this season but are 16-10 (+5.4 net games) when Wainwright starts. As an underdog in Wainwright’s starts, St. Louis is 2-1.
Milwaukee is 60-39 (+1.2 net games) when a favorite this season.
Players to watch
Cardinals: All-Star first baseman Paul Goldschmidt has hit safely in 17 of his last 20 games. He’s 30-for-76 (.395 batting average) and has hit six homers to go with 19 RBI.
Brewers: Christian Yelich’s bat has come alive the last 20 games. The former MVP is batting .346 since Aug. 11, driving in 11 runs with an on-base percentage of .391.
Projected lineup
Cardinals:
Tommy Edman (S) 2B
Paul Goldschmidt (R) 1B
Tyler O'Neill (R) LF
Nolan Arenado (R) 3B
Dylan Carlson (S) RF
Edmundo Sosa (R) SS
Harrison Bader (R) CF
Andrew Knizner (R) C
Adam Wainwright (R) P
Brewers:
Kolten Wong (L) 2B
Luis Urias (R) SS
Christian Yelich (L) LF
Avisail Garcia (R) RF
Jace Peterson (L) 3B
Daniel Vogelbach (L) 1B
Jackie Bradley Jr. (L) CF
Luke Maile (R) C
Freddy Peralta (R) P
Statistical leaders
Cardinals:
Batting average: Paul Goldschmidt (.287)
Hits: Paul Goldschmidt (144)
Home runs: Nolan Arenado (27)
RBI: Nolan Arenado (85)
Stolen bases: Tommy Edman (21)
Wins: Adam Wainwright (13)
Saves: Alex Reyes (29)
ERA: Adam Wainwright (2.97)
Team Y:
Batting average: Avisail Garcia (.267)
Hits: Avisail Garcia (110)
Home runs: Avisail Garcia (24)
RBI: Avisail Garcia (77)
Stolen bases: Lorenzo Cain (11)
Wins: Brent Suter (12)
Saves: Josh Hader (29)
ERA: Corbin Burnes (2.27)
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Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
