by Amedeus Mastrangelo
Monday, Nov 08, 2021
Game Time: 12:00 pm ET, Saturday, November 13, 2021
Venue: Jordan-Hare Stadium, Auburn, AL
Where to Watch: ESPN
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Point Spread: Mississippi State +5.5, Auburn -5.5; Over/Under: 50 points
Bet365: Point Spread: Mississippi State +5.5, Auburn -5.5; Over/Under: 51 points
BetMGM: Point Spread: Mississippi State +5.5, Auburn -5.5; Over/Under: 50.5 points
Season Record
Mississippi State Bulldogs: 5-4 (5th place, SEC West)
Auburn Tigers: 6-3 (3rd place, SEC West)
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Mississippi State Bulldogs vs Auburn Tigers Preview and Analysis
Recent Form
Mississippi State Bulldogs: lost on the road on Nov. 6 against the Arkansas Razorbacks 31-28.
Auburn Tigers: lost on the road on Nov. 6 against the Texas A&M Aggies 20-3.
Mississippi State Bulldogs Analysis
Mississippi State is coming into this game with a 5-4 record overall and they are 2-2 in their road games this season where they will be in this game. They have won 2 of their last 3 games and are coming into this one off of a loss in their last game which snapped the 2 game winning streak that they were on. Will Rogers played a good game in their last one as he completed 36/48 passes for 417 yards, 4 touchdowns and 1 interception. Jo'quavious Marks led the team in rushing with 40 yards on 11 carries but they did not have much of a ground game going for them in that one. Makai Polk had a nice day as he led the receivers with 117 yards on 8 receptions while Austin Williams had 72 yards on 4 receptions. Rara Thomas caught 2 touchdown passes in that game while Marks and Jaden Walley caught the other 2 with 1 each. Aaron Brule led the defense in that game with 4 solo tackles and 2 assisted ones along with 1 sack as well. Brule along with Nathaniel Watson and Tyrus Wheat all had the only sacks in that game for them with 1 each while no one on the defense came away with any interceptions in that one. Their offense has scored 252 points in their 9 games this season averaging 28 PPG and they have allowed their opponents to score 228 points against them allowing 25.3 PPG. Their offense is averaging 432 YPG while their defense is allowing 322.1 YPG.
Auburn Tigers Analysis
Auburn is coming into this game with a 6-3 record overall and they are 4-1 in their home games this season where they will be in this game. They have won 2 of their last 3 games and are coming into this one off of a loss in their last game which snapped a 2 game winning streak that they were on. Bo Nix did not play well in their last game as he completed 20/41 passes for 153 yards and 1 interception. Cartavious Bigsby led the team in rushing with 69 yards on 15 carries. John Samuel Shenker led the receivers with 50 yards on 4 receptions while Shaun Shivers led the team in receptions with 6 for 40 yards in what was a very quiet day for the receiving corps. Smoke Monday led the defense in that game with 6 solo tackles and 3 assisted ones while Ladarius Tennison was right behind with 6 solo tackles and 2 assisted ones. No one on the defense recorded any sacks in that game or came away with any interceptions for them. They have scored 282 points in their 9 games this season averaging 31.3 PPG and they have allowed their opponents to score 178 points against them allowing 19.8 PPG. Their offense is averaging 427.3 YPG while their defense is allowing 364.6 YPG.
Mississippi State vs Auburn Prediction
Auburn is coming into this game as a 5.5 point favorite with the current betting odds according to Draftkings Sportsbook. Auburn was playing very well in their games up until their last one where they were only able to score 3 points on Texas A&M. They are going to be angry from that loss and will be looking to bounce back in this game. They are getting a Mississippi State team that has also been playing well and is coming off of a tight loss in their last game. Auburn has played some tougher opponents though and they have a much better team than Mississippi State does. The best bet to place in this game is on Auburn to cover the spread here.
Mississippi State Auburn Prediction: Our NCAAF Pick for Saturday, November 13, 2021 (12:00 pm ET start time) is Auburn 27 Mississippi State 17.
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NCAAF Betting Trends
Mississippi State Bulldogs: 21-31 O/U as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points. 109-149 O/U in all games. 24-51 O/U when the total is between 49.5 and 56. 61-84 O/U as an underdog. 34-36 O/U as a road underdog. 50-62 O/U in road games. 71-111 O/U against conference opponents.
Auburn Tigers: 28-35 O/U as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points. 135-155 O/U in all games. 55-57 O/U as a home favorite. 70-81 O/U in home games. 97-109 O/U against conference opponents.
Key Injuries
Mississippi State Bulldogs: None.
Auburn Tigers: M. Johnson Jr. (WR) Ques Sat - Undisclosed injury. T. Dawson Jr. (WR) Out indefinitely - Undisclosed injury. B. Patton (K) Out indefinitely - Lower Body injury. J. Wright (DT) out for season - Knee injury.
Notable Quotes
"We lost this game by one play, which, we had plenty of plays the first half and in the second half, too, to win this game. You've got to make those plays in a comprehensive fashion, one on top of the next." - Mike Leach on his team’s loss to Arkansas in their last game.
"I just don't think that we found that play, that momentum, that spark to really get us — on the offensive side — going. We had plenty of self-inflicted wounds that we had in there — dropped passes, we lost the ball, we fumbled it. There were plenty of things that we could control that we didn't help ourselves with." - Bryan Harsin on his team’s loss to Texas A&M in their last game.
Starting Lineups
Mississippi State Bulldogs
WR Heath, Malik
WR Polk, Makai
WR Calvin, Jamire
WR Austin Williams
QB Rogers, Will
RB Jernighan, J.J.
Auburn Tigers
WR Jackson, Shedrick
WR Robertson, Demetris
WR Johnson, Ja'Varrius
TE Shenker, John Samuel
QB Nix, Bo
RB Bigsby, Tank
Statistical Leaders
Mississippi State Bulldogs
Passing: W. Rogers (3307)
Rushing: D. Johnson (288)
Receiving: M. Polk (720)
Touchdowns: M. Polk (6)
Auburn Tigers
Passing: B. Nix (1917)
Rushing: T. Bigsby (735)
Receiving: K. Hudson (383)
Touchdowns: T. Bigsby (7)
Coaches:
Mississippi State Bulldogs: Mike Leach (2nd season)
Auburn Tigers: Bryan Harsin (1st season)
Amedeus Mastrangelo
About the Author:
Amedeus Mastrangelo has been heavily wagering on all sports for years and plays just about everything, including sides, totals, favorites, underdogs, against the spread, alternative spreads, first half, second half, player props, and futures. The bottom line is, if Mastrangelo can see an edge in any way shape or form, then he's going to take advantage.
