Minnesota Twins vs Cleveland Guardians Prediction, Preview and Odds - 09/19/2024

Game Time: 1:10 pm ET, Thursday, September 19, 2024

Venue:  Progressive Field, Cleveland, OH

Where to Watch:  BSN

DraftKings:  Moneyline odds:  Twins -105, Guardians -115; Over/Under:  8.5 runs

Bet365:  Moneyline odds:  Twins -105, Guardians -115; Over/Under:  8.5 runs

BetMGM:  Moneyline odds:  Twins -105, Guardians -115; Over/Under:  8.5 runs

Minnesota Twins:  80-71 (3rd place, AL Central)

Cleveland Guardians:  87-65 (1st place, AL Central)

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Minnesota Twins:  4-6 last 10

Cleveland Guardians:  6-4 last 10

The Twins are entering this series off a win and lost their 3-game series against the Cincinnati Reds 2-1 in their last series. They enter this game with a 80-71 record overall and have a road record of 38-38. This is the series finale of a 4-game series with the Guardians on Thursday with the 3rd game of this series still to be played on Wednesday. The Twins lost the series opener of this series on Monday and won the 2nd game on Tuesday. Their offense ranks 10th in the MLB with a .738 OPS. Bailey Ober is their starting pitcher on Wednesday while Simeon Woods Richardson is making his start in this game on Thursday. He is 5-5 with a 4.08 ERA this season. His team lost their last 2 straight games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 3 ER, 0 HR, and 3 BB with 3 Ks on 5 hits through 3 IP against the Cincinnati Reds.

The Guardians are entering this series off a win and split their 4-game series against the Tampa Bay Rays 2-2 in their last series. They enter this game with a 87-65 record overall and have a home record of 46-28. This is the 4th game of a 4-game series with the Twins on Thursday with the 3rd game of this series still to be played on Wednesday. The Guardians won the 1st game of this series on Monday and lost the 2nd game on Tuesday. Their offense ranks 13th in the MLB with a .703 OPS. Tanner Bibee is their starting pitcher on Wednesday while rookie pitcher Joey Cantillo is making his start in this game on Thursday. He is 2-3 with a 4.99 ERA this season. His team won their last 2 straight games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 0 earned runs, 0 homers, and 1 BB with 6 strikeouts on 3 hits through 5 innings played against the Tampa Bay Rays.

The current betting odds have the Guardians listed as a slight favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Guardians have looked great in their games this season with their 87-65 record overall which has them leading the AL Central. They have also looked great in their home games this season with their 46-28 home record. Meanwhile, the Twins have looked good in their games this season with their 80-71 record overall, but that record only has them in 3rd place of the AL Central and fighting for a Wild Card spot. They haven't looked good in their road games either, going 38-38 in their road games this year, and they haven't looked good in their games lately. They are only 4-6 in their last 10 games and have been slipping down the standings with the Royals now ahead of them. The Guardians are 6-4 in their last 10 games and they have the better pitching matchup here. They are going with their rookie Cantillo in this one but he has looked really good in his starts lately. He is 2-3 with a 4.99 ERA this season and hasn't been giving up many runs now. He gave up no runs in his last start and the team has won 2 games in a row with him starting. The Twins are going with Woods Richardson in this one and he is 5-5 with a 4.08 ERA, but lately he has been giving up more runs. He gave up 3 earned runs in his last start as he has been giving up more runs in his last few, and the team has lost 2 games in a row with him starting too. The Guardians can take advantage of this pitching matchup at home where they have been a much better team all season and they also have the better bullpen to lean on too. The best way to place a bet here is on the Guardians to win this game. 

Twins Guardians Prediction:  Our MLB Pick for Thursday, September 19, 2024 (1:10 pm ET start time) is Guardians 6 Twins 2.

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Minnesota Twins: 10-22 (-10.8 units) on the moneyline as a road underdog of +100 or higher. 10-29 (-23.9 units) on the moneyline vs. a team with a good bullpen whose ERA is 3.45 or better. 25-12 UNDER as an underdog of +100 to +150. 

Cleveland Guardians: 49-25 (+18 units) on the moneyline when the money line is -100 to -150. 47-27 (+10 units) on the moneyline in home games. 13-3 UNDER in September games.

Minnesota Twins:  K. Funderburk (SP) Sixty Day IL - Oblique. M. Kepler (RF) Ten Day IL - Knee. C. Paddack (SP) Sixty Day IL - Forearm. J. Ryan (SP) Sixty Day IL - Shoulder. B. Stewart (RP) Sixty Day IL - Shoulder. C. Correa (SS) Ten Day IL - Heel. J. Topa (RP) Sixty Day IL - Knee. D. Duarte (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. A. DeSclafani (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow.

Cleveland Guardians:  S. Kwan (LF) Questionable - Fatigue. A. Cobb (SP) Undefined - Finger. S. Hentges (RP) Sixty Day IL - Shoulder. T. Stephan (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. J. Karinchak (RP) Sixty Day IL - Shoulder. S. Bieber (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow.

"Great win for our entire team. Everywhere you looked — in the dugout, out in the bullpen — everyone played a part in some small way. There’s a lot to clap about and talk about.” - Rocco Baldelli after his team’s win against the Guardians in their game on Tuesday.

“I knew it was close. I wasn’t sure if I was going to be out or safe. When he called me safe, I was pretty thankful. But then obviously Rocco challenged the play and it got overturned, so kind of sucked.” - Myles Straw after their loss against the Twins in their game on Tuesday.

Byron Buxton (R) CF

Matt Wallner (L) RF

Carlos Santana (S) 1B

Royce Lewis (R) 3B

Trevor Larnach (L) DH

Willi Castro (S) LF

Ryan Jeffers (R) C

Brooks Lee (S) SS

Edouard Julien (L) 2B

Angel Martínez (S) LF

Andrés Giménez (L) 2B

José Ramírez (S) 3B

Josh Naylor (L) 1B

Lane Thomas (R) CF

Kyle Manzardo (L) DH

Will Brennan (L) RF

Bo Naylor (L) C

Brayan Rocchio (S) SS

Batting Average:  Michael Helman (.375)

Hits:  Willi Castro (131)

Home Runs:  Carlos Santana (22)

RBI:  Carlos Santana (65)

Stolen Bases:  Willi Castro (14)

Wins:  Pablo López (15)

Saves:  Jhoan Duran (23)

ERA:  Cole Irvin (0.00)

Batting Average:  Steven Kwan (.291)

Hits:  José Ramírez (160)

Home Runs:  José Ramírez (35)

RBI:  José Ramírez (107)

Stolen Bases:  José Ramírez (39)

Wins:  Ben Lively (12)

Saves:  Emmanuel Clase (46)

ERA:  Shane Bieber (0.00)

Managers:

Minnesota Twins: Rocco Baldelli (6th season)

Cleveland Guardians: Stephen Vogt (1st season)