Minnesota Timberwolves vs Phoenix Suns Prediction, Preview and Odds - 04/28/2024

Game Time: 9:30 pm ET, Sunday, April 28, 2024

Venue:  Footprint Center, Phoenix, AZ

Where to Watch:  TNT, MAX

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  Timberwolves -1, Suns +1; Over/Under:  210.5 points

Bet365:  Point Spread:  Timberwolves -1, Suns +1; Over/Under:  210.5 points

BetMGM:  Point Spread:  Timberwolves -1.5, Suns +1.5; Over/Under:  210.5 points

Minnesota Timberwolves:  56-26 (3rd place, Northwest Division)

Phoenix Suns:  49-33 (2nd place, Pacific Division)

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Minnesota Timberwolves:  7-3 last 10

Phoenix Suns:  5-5 last 10

The Timberwolves are entering this game with a 56-26 record overall to finish the regular season and they were 26-15 in their road games this season where they will be in this game. They are entering this game on a 3 game winning streak with wins coming against the Phoenix Suns in their last 3 games. In their last game against the Suns in game 3 of this series, Anthony Edwards led the team in points in that game with 36 while Rudy Gobert was next on the team with 19 points. Mike Conley Jr. led the team in assists in that game with 7 while Rudy Gobert led the team in rebounds with 14. They were 49.4% from the field, 38.2% from 3-point range, and 87.1% from the free throw line with their shots in that game. Their offense is averaging 113 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 106.5 PPG against them. The Timberwolves have an ATS record of 43-40-2 this season and their O/U record is 43-41-1.

The Suns are entering this game with a 49-33 record overall to finish the regular season and they were 25-16 in their home games this season where they will be in this game. They are entering this game on a 3 game losing streak with losses coming against the Minnesota Timberwolves in their last 3 games. In their last game against the Timberwolves in game 3 of this series, Bradley Beal led the team in points in that game with 28 while Kevin Durant was next on the team with 25 points. Devin Booker led the team in assists in that game with 8 while Jusuf Nurkić led the team in rebounds with 7. They were 46.1% from the field, 39.3% from 3-point range, and 87.5% from the free throw line with their shots in that game. Their offense is averaging 116.2 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 113.2 PPG against them. The Suns have an ATS record of 35-48-2 this season and their O/U record is 38-46-1.

The current betting odds have the Timberwolves listed as a 1 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. This is game 4 of a 7 game series between the 3rd seeded Timberwolves and the 6th seeded Suns for Round 1 of the NBA Western Conference playoffs. The Timberwolves have a 3-0 series lead after winning game 3 of this series on the road. The Timberwolves haven't been a bad road team this season with their 26-15 road record and they showed it in game 3 to take a commanding 3-0 series lead. They now have the Suns on the verge of elimination in this game and the 3 games in this series haven't even been close. The Suns are struggling to keep up with the Timberwolves on the boards and they have run out of gas in the 2nd half of every game in this series. The Timberwolves are showing why they deserve to be the number 2 seed in the West and why they were right in the race for the number 1 seed until the last game of the season. The Suns have no answer for the Timberwolves in this series as nothing they have been doing in this series has worked for them. The Timberwolves are playing too well right now to be stopped by this up and down Suns team, they have the shooting and the defense to close out this series with a sweep here. The best way to place a bet here is on the Timberwolves to cover the spread in this game.

Timberwolves Suns Prediction:  Our NBA Pick for Sunday, April 28, 2024 (9:30 pm ET start time) is Timberwolves 124 Suns 111.

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Minnesota Timberwolves: 10-3 ATS off a win by 15 points or more as an underdog. 24-12 ATS after 3 straight wins by 10 points or more. 11-6 ATS in all playoff games. 17-8 OVER in a road game where the total is 210 to 219.5. 13-6 OVER after 3 or more consecutive wins. 

Phoenix Suns: 2-10 ATS as a home underdog of 6 points or less. 3-8 ATS off an upset loss as a home favorite. 16-25 ATS in home games. 7-2 OVER when the total is 210 to 219.5. 10-5 OVER off a home loss by 10 points or more. 9-5 OVER after 3 or more consecutive losses.

Minnesota Timberwolves:  J. Clark (SG) Out indefinitely - Achilles.

Phoenix Suns:  G. Allen (SG) Ques Sun - Ankle. D. Lee (SG) Out indefinitely - Knee.

“This is a team you need to dictate terms with. You don't want to get behind big on them because of the way they can shoot the ball. That's been part of our messaging, part of our emphasis, we have to get off to good starts.” - Chris Finch after his team’s win against the Suns in game 3 of this series on Friday.

“We got killed on the boards. This is a bigger, stronger team. We've got to compete and win the 50-50 balls. I thought our guys gave the effort, but it wasn't enough.” - Frank Vogel after his team’s loss against the Timberwolves in game 3 of this series on Friday.

PG Mike Conley

SG Anthony Edwards

SF Jaden McDaniels

PF Karl-Anthony Towns

C Rudy Gobert

PG Devin Booker

SG Bradley Beal

SF Royce O'Neale

PF Kevin Durant

C Jusuf Nurkic

PPG: A. Edwards (25.9)

APG: M. Conley (5.9)

Reb/G: R. Gobert (12.9)

PPG: D. Booker (27.1)

APG: D. Booker (6.9)

Reb/G: J. Nurkic (11)

Coaches:

Minnesota Timberwolves: Chris Finch (4th season)

Phoenix Suns: Frank Vogel (1st season)