Minnesota Timberwolves vs Dallas Mavericks Prediction, Preview and Odds - 05/28/2024

Game Time: 8:30 pm ET, Tuesday, May 28, 2024

Venue:  American Airlines Center, Dallas, TX

Where to Watch:  TNT, MAX

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  Timberwolves +3, Mavericks -3; Over/Under:  210 points

Bet365:  Point Spread:  Timberwolves +3, Mavericks -3; Over/Under:  210 points

BetMGM:  Point Spread:  Timberwolves +3.5, Mavericks -3.5; Over/Under:  209.5 points

Minnesota Timberwolves:  56-26 (3rd place, Northwest Division)

Dallas Mavericks:  50-32 (1st place, Southwest Division)

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Minnesota Timberwolves:  4-6 last 10

Dallas Mavericks:  8-2 last 10

The Timberwolves are entering this game with a 56-26 record overall to finish the regular season and they were 26-15 in their road games this season where they will be in this game. They are entering this game on a 3 game losing streak with losses coming against the Dallas Mavericks in their last 3 games. In their last game against the Mavericks in game 3 of this series, Anthony Edwards led the team in points in that game with 26 while Mike Conley Jr. was next on the team with 16 points. Anthony Edwards led the team in assists in that game with 9 while Karl-Anthony Towns led the team in rebounds with 11. They were 50.6% from the field, 30% from 3-point range, and 70.6% from the free throw line with their shots in that game. Their offense is averaging 113 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 106.5 PPG against them. The Timberwolves have an ATS record of 48-46-2 this season and their O/U record is 50-45-1.

The Mavericks are entering this game with a 50-32 record overall to finish the regular season and they were 25-16 in their home games this season where they will be in this game. They are entering this game on a 5 game winning streak with wins coming against the Oklahoma City Thunder twice in a row and the Minnesota Timberwolves in their last 3 games. In their last game against the Timberwolves in game 3 of this series, Luka Dončić and Kyrie Irving each led the team in points in that game with 33 while P.J. Washington was next on the team with 16 points. Luka Dončić led the team in assists in that game with 5 while P.J. Washington led the team in rebounds with 8. They were 55.9% from the field, 50% from 3-point range, and 83.9% from the free throw line with their shots in that game. Their offense is averaging 117.9 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 115.6 PPG against them. The Mavericks have an ATS record of 58-39 this season and their O/U record is 44-52-1.

The current betting odds have the Mavericks listed as a 3 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. This is game 4 of a 7 game series between the 3rd seeded Timberwolves and the 5th seeded Mavericks for the Western Conference Finals of the NBA playoffs. The Mavericks have a 3-0 series lead after winning game 3 of this series on their home court. The Mavericks have looked great in this series even though all 3 of the games have been really tight, the Mavericks have managed to find a way to win all 3. Now they have a ton of momentum on their side with 5 wins in a row, going back to their last series against the Thunder, and the Timberwolves really have had no answer for Doncic and Irving in these games. The Timberwolves have still been a really good road team this season, but they have looked a lot better in their home games so they are in a really tough situation here. No NBA team has ever come back in a series down 3-0 either so they have to have some deflated spirits on their team as they can only delay the inevitable. The Timberwolves are going to throw everything they have at the Mavericks in this game to keep their season alive, but they already did that in game 3 and it wasn't enough to beat this Mavericks team. This series is already over even if the Timberwolves find a way to extend it with a win in this game, but they won't as they have had no answer for the Mavericks in this series so look for the Mavericks to finish the job and close the series out on their home court. The best way to place a bet here is on the Mavericks to cover the spread in this game.

Timberwolves Mavericks Prediction:  Our NBA Pick for Tuesday, May 28, 2024 (8:30 pm ET start time) is Mavericks 112 Timberwolves 105.

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Minnesota Timberwolves: 52-83 ATS after a game where they allowed a shooting pct. of 55% or higher. 6-1 UNDER after 3 or more consecutive overs. 19-9 UNDER revenging a loss where the opponent scored 110 or more points. 

Dallas Mavericks: 21-11 ATS when the line is +3 to -3. 10-5 ATS in all playoff games. 18-10 ATS against Northwest division opponents. 8-1 UNDER when the total is 210 to 219.5. 11-2 UNDER after 5 or more consecutive wins. 7-1 UNDER after a game where they made 55% of their shots or better.

Minnesota Timberwolves:  J. Clark (SG) Out indefinitely - Achilles.

Dallas Mavericks:  M. Kleber (PF) Ques Tues - Shoulder. D. Lively II (C) Ques Tues - Head. O. Prosper (PF) Out indefinitely - Ankle. G. Brown III (SF) Out indefinitely - Personal.

“You've got to try to score alongside them. The whole series, we’ve struggled to close games. These three-minute games that we’re playing, we’re losing.” - Chris Finch after his team’s loss against the Mavericks in game 3 of this series on Sunday.

“Don’t even say it. But it feels great. But we’ve got to think about the next game. Gotta play with the same mentality. They’re not going to go away. No way.” - Luka Doncic after their win against the Timberwolves in game 3 of this series on Sunday.

PG Mike Conley

SG Anthony Edwards

SF Jaden McDaniels

PF Karl-Anthony Towns

C Rudy Gobert

PG Luka Doncic

SG Kyrie Irving

SF Derrick Jones Jr.

PF P.J. Washington 

C Daniel Gafford

PPG: A. Edwards (25.9)

APG: M. Conley (5.9)

Reb/G: R. Gobert (12.9)

PPG: L. Doncic (33.9)

APG: L. Doncic (9.8)

Reb/G: L. Doncic (9.2)

Coaches:

Minnesota Timberwolves: Chris Finch (4th season)

Dallas Mavericks: Jason Kidd (3rd season)