Milwaukee Bucks vs Miami Heat Prediction, Preview and Odds - 04/05/2025

Game Time: 8:00 pm ET, Saturday, April 5, 2025

Venue:  Kaseya Center, Miami, FL

Where to Watch:  FDSWI

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  Bucks -1.5, Heat +1.5; Over/Under:  214.5 points

Bet365:  Point Spread:  Bucks -1.5, Heat +1.5; Over/Under:  214.5 points

BetMGM:  Point Spread:  Bucks -1.5, Heat +1.5; Over/Under:  214.5 points

Milwaukee Bucks:  42-34 (3rd place, Central Division)

Miami Heat:  35-42 (3rd place, Southeast Division)

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Milwaukee Bucks:  4-6 last 10

Miami Heat:  6-4 last 10

The Bucks are entering this game with a 42-34 record overall this season and they are 17-20 in their road games this season where they will be in this game. They are entering this game on a 2 game winning streak with wins coming against the Phoenix Suns and the Philadelphia 76ers. Giannis Antetokounmpo led the team in points in that game with 35 while Brook Lopez was next on the team with 17 points. Giannis Antetokounmpo led the team in assists in that game with 20 while Giannis Antetokounmpo led the team in rebounds with 17. They were 56.1% from the field, 51.6% from 3-point range, and 66.7% from the free throw line with their shots in that game. Their offense is averaging 114.9 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 112.9 PPG against them. The Bucks have an ATS record of 38-37-2 this season and their O/U record is 39-38.

The Heat are entering this game with a 35-42 record overall this season and they are 18-20 in their home games this season where they will be in this game. They are entering this game off a loss against the Memphis Grizzlies. Tyler Herro led the team in points in that game with 35 while Bam Adebayo was next on the team with 26 points. Davion Mitchell led the team in assists in that game with 7 while Kel'el Ware led the team in rebounds with 15. They were 41.1% from the field, 42.4% from 3-point range, and 84.2% from the free throw line with their shots in that game. Their offense is averaging 109.8 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 109.8 PPG against them. The Heat have an ATS record of 37-39-1 this season and their O/U record is 39-38.

The current betting odds have the Heat listed as a 1.5 point underdog in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Heat haven't looked good in their games this season with their 35-42 record overall which has them in the bottom half of the East, but that record still has them in a play-in spot. They haven't looked great on their home court either with their 18-20 home record this season. Meanwhile, the Bucks have looked good in their games this season with their 42-34 record overall which has them in the top half of the East and in a playoff spot. They haven't been a good road team though with their 17-20 road record this season. The Bucks have won 2 games in a row now and have some momentum on their side, but those wins were against 2 very bad teams, the Suns and the 76ers. The Bucks haven't looked that great lately either as they are 4-6 in their last 10 games. The Heat are coming off a loss in their last one, but they lost a tight game at home to the Grizzlies by 2 points, and the Grizzlies are a solid team in the West. They have also been hot lately as they are 6-4 in their last 10 games and that loss to the Grizzlies snapped their 6 game winning streak. The Heat are going to be looking to bounce back in this home game and they can take advantage of the way the Bucks have struggled lately and on the road this season. The Bucks haven't been the same team since losing Lillard to an injury either. The best way to place a bet here is on the Heat to cover the spread in this game. 

Bucks Heat Prediction:  Our NBA Pick for Saturday, April 5, 2025 (8:00 pm ET start time) is Heat 111 Bucks 104.

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Milwaukee Bucks: 15-7 ATS versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing 13 turnovers/game or less. 23-17 ATS versus good shooting teams - making 46% of their shots or more. 7-4 ATS after 3 or more consecutive overs. 8-3 OVER after 3 or more consecutive overs. 12-6 1H OVER when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 40% to 49%).

Miami Heat: 5-11 ATS against Central division opponents. 17-29 ATS versus good shooting teams - making 46% of their shots or more. 8-17 ATS versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing 13 turnovers/game or less. 11-5 OVER against Central division opponents. 13-6 OVER when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%).

Milwaukee Bucks:  D. Lillard (PG) Out - Groin. J. Sims (C) Out - Thumb.

Miami Heat:  T. Rozier (PG) Day To Day - Illness. A. Wiggins (SF) Day To Day - Hamstring. K. Love (PF) Day To Day - Personal. N. Jovic (PF) Day To Day - Hand. D. Smith (PG) Out For Season - Achilles.

“When you’re the primary ballhandler, you just gotta keep on making good decisions for the team. I feel like most of the time, I try to make the best decision for myself or for my teammates.” - Giannis Antetokounmpo after their win against the 76ers in their game on Thursday.

"We're at our best when we're active, not just leaving a guy on an island. We feel fully comfortable with Kel-el guarding a lot of different kinds of players, especially in an iso situation, but not on an island. That's probably the biggest takeaway. We had opportunities late to really bring a second guy there, just didn't do it." - Erik Spoelstra after his team’s loss against the Grizzlies in their game on Thursday.

PG Ryan Rollins

SG Taurean Prince

SF Kyle Kuzma

PF Giannis Antetokounmpo

C Brook Lopez

PG Tyler Herro

SG Alec Burks

SF Haywood Highsmith

PF Bam Adebayo

C Kel'el Ware

PPG: G. Antetokounmpo (30.4)

APG: D. Lillard (7.1)

Reb/G: G. Antetokounmpo (11.9)

PPG: T. Herro (23.9)

APG: T. Herro (5.6)

Reb/G: B. Adebayo (9.6)

Coaches:

Milwaukee Bucks: Doc Rivers (2nd season)

Miami Heat: Erik Spoelstra (17th season)