Miami Heat vs Philadelphia 76ers Prediction, Spread and Trends to Watch - 05/06/2022
Game Time: 7:00 PM ET, Friday, May 6th, 2022
Venue: Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
Where to Watch: ESPN
Opening NBA Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Heat -1; O/U 210.5
Fanduel: Heat -1; O/U 210.5
BetMGM: Heat -1.5; O/U 210.5
NBA Standings
Heat: 53-29, 1st place Eastern Conference, Leads series 2-0
76ers: 51-31, 3rd place Eastern Conference, Down 0-2 in series
An Eastern Conference NBA Playoff round 2, Game 3. The #1 Seed in the East beat the #4 Seed in the first two games… There are very little surprises there. The number 1 Seed was at home… and was favored afterall…. But the series could radically change in Game 3. First off the series shifts to now the #4 Seed is at home for two games…. Usually not that big a deal for the best team in the East… but in addition to shifting the series… the #4 Seed will attempt to play their best player… the best player in the entire matchup… who missed the first two games… So, we will be getting a swing in home court advantage AND a swing in roster strength toward the #4 in the same game… Will all that be enough? The Heat vs Sixers have been great betting opportunities so far if you were smart enough to bet the Heat… Should you switch?... Or keep pushing?
The Miami Heat were the best team in the Eastern Conference this season. They won the most games.. They had a fantastic defense and they have been led by SF Jimmy Butler who is doing his best all-around work of his career. The Heat also have a level of depth envied across the league… several bench players on the Heat are also world class shooters… Like 6th man of the year SG Tyler Herro… and even little used SF/SG Duncan Robinson who can light up the net… but doesn’t play enough because he doesn’t play enough defense. The Heat have won 8 of their last ten games including the last 3 games of the regular season. They are 7-3 ATS during that stretch. Had you bet the Heat to win in every playoff game you would be 5-2 ATS… If those were $1000 bets you would be carefully perusing the brochures from the Hot Tub installer. The Heat took the first two games against the Philadelphia 76ers rather easily… Game 1 106-92 and Game 2 119-103. They had an easy road as Sixers C Joel Embiid sat out the first two games. In Game 2 (THE LAST ONE) SF Jimmy Butler had 22 points and played great defense, C Bam Adebayo had 23 points and played great defense, SG Tyler Herro had 18 points and other SG Victor Oladipo had 19 points… the Sixers never stood a chance. It was easy. Will it remain easy?
The Philadelphia 76ers took two heavy beating in the first two games of the series. Without Center Joel Embiid the Sixers turned their eyes to SG James Harden who played well… but ultimately disappointed in both games. He is not the James Harden of old… He is better than Ben Simmons since he is playing… but he doesn’t blow by guys and get to the line like he once did. The body that screams “I’m at the club every night!” is beginning to betray him. I only write that last sentence in hopes that James takes the last 3-6 years of his career seriously and shows up for camp next season looking like Tayshaun Prince (if ya’ll remember him). The Sixers have won 6 of their last ten games including the last 2 regular season games. They went 5-5 ATS during that stretch. In the last game (a loss) PG Tyrese Maxey showed up with 34 points, 3 rbs, 1 asts… once again announcing that he is the firm #2 star on a team that normally features C Joel Embiid. Harden had 20 points and 9 assists, and SF Tobia Harris had 21 points. C Deandre Jordan was a pale comparison to an actual Center and the Sixers got run out of the building. PF Danny Green and SF Matisse Thybulle were invisible and embarrassing. If the Sixers can not get more of them.. They will consistently lose every single second of play that Embiid is not on the court for the Sixers.
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Miami Heat vs Philadelphia 76ers Preview and Analysis
Recent Form
Miami is 59-30 on the season, but 51-37-1 ATS. They have logged 50 Overs and 39 Unders. They are 25-18 in road games.
Philly is 55-35 on the season, but 41-47-2 ATS. They have notched 41 Overs, 46 Unders, and 3 Push. They are 26-18 at home.
Offensive Analysis
The Heat are 17th in scoring with 110.0 ppg, 22nd in rebounds with 43.7 per game, and 19th in AST/TO ratio with 1.8. On defense they rank 4th while holding opponents to 105.6 ppg.
The Sixers are 18th in scoring with 109.9 ppg, 29th rebounds with 42.3 per game, and 8th in AST/TO ratio with 1.9. On defense they rank 8th while holding opponents to 107.3 ppg.
Miami Heat vs Philadelphia 76ers Game Prediction
Our prediction for Friday, May 6th is….. Sixers 114 - Heat 113
Bet on the Sixers. The Sixers are at home. The Sixers will play C Joel Embiid for at least 25 minutes. Joel Embiid playing will take a world of pressure off of James Harden, Tobias Harris and Tyrese Maxey. The Heat are dinged up, but will play everyone listed as questionable. Vegas will give you a couple of points to put in your pocket. I’m not guaranteeing a Sixers win.. But I am saying that the Sixers' absolute best chance in this series is this game… and if they don’t get this.. They are done. Take the points. If you have no faith the Sixers can get a game… Then simply bet the OVER.
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NBA Betting Trends
The Heat are 16 Overs and 4 Under in a road game when the total is set between 210 - 219.5.
Miami is 40-22 ATS in the second round of the playoffs since 1996.
Philly is 20 Over and 8 Under after scoring 105 points or less in 2 straight games.
Injury List
Heat: SF PJ Tucker (calf) Quest ** SG Gabe Vincent (knee) Quest ** SF Caleb Martin (ankle) Quest ** PG Max Strus (hammy) Quest ** SG Tyler Herro (ankle) Quest ** PG Kyle Lowry (hammy) Quest
Sixers: SF George Niang (knee) Quest ** C Joel Embiid (head) Quest
Starting Lineups
Heat: SF PJ Tucker, PF Jimmy Butler, C Bam Adebayo, SG Gabe Vincent, PG Max Strus
Philly: C Joel Embiid, PF Tobais Harris, SF Danny Green, PG Tyrese Maxey, SG James Harden
Coaches
Heat: Erik Spoelstra
76ers: Doc Rivers