Game Time: 5:00 PM ET, Saturday, December 4th, 2021 

Venue: Fiserv Forum, Milwaukee, Wisconsin 

Where to Watch: NBA League Pass, local cable 

DraftKings:  Spread:   NL

BetMGM:  Spread:  NL

VegasInsider:  Spread:   NL

Heat: 13-9, 5th place Eastern Conference

Bucks: 14-9, 4th place Eastern Conference

A perfect matchup to find out how the NBA season is playing out.  Both these teams are exceptional basketball teams.  Both these teams will not worry too much about the regular season.  This is not a game for entertainment purposes… it’s for jockeying slots in the NBA playoffs.  The postseason is the goal for both these opponents… without any real guarantees you should expect a playoff atmosphere.

 

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The Miami Heat are 13-9 on the season and 13-9 ATS.  They have logged 13 Overs and 9 Unders.. And yes, that means they blow out the favored wins and lose the close calls.  Mia will have to worry about Brooklyn, Boston Celtics, and Philadelphia all season…. But the real test will always be Milwaukee…  They won the East and the Finals most recently.  The Bucks are the standard.  The Heat were the prior year’s bubble finalists.

The Milwaukee Bucks shouldn’t fret.They are 14-9 on the season, but 10-13 ATS.  They have notched 8 Overs and 15 Unders.  They are 7-14 home games and have the advantage of being the home team in this game. The betting public loves the Bucks and Giannis.  They hold the jurisdiction of recency bias and will need the statute to expire before putting money in the other direction. 

Miami is 14th in total points per game with only 107.7 per game, 17th in rebounds with 45 per game, and 13th in AST/TO per game with 1.7.  The weakness comes from 30th in blocks per game with 2.4.  A mark that shouldn’t be met with center Bam Adebayo on the floor.  There are plenty of better offenses in the league… Few better defenses where they rank 4th in defending points.

The Bucks started slow, but are 8-2 over their last ten games.. Sure, the Detroit Pistons were in there and the Golden State Warriors were not in that stretch… but you have to beat who is in front of you.  The Bucks are 9th in ppg with 109.9, 2nd in rebounds with 47.4 per, 17th in AST/TO ratio with 1.6.   They are not nearly the Phoenix Suns on offense, but for handicapping purposes these numbers + an MVP are gold. They can win any NBA game whether it is Portland or Utah or whoever.  They will win this one too.

Our prediction for Saturday, December 4th is…. Milwaukee 118 - Miami 107

NBA predictions are often based off recent games and injury lineups… This Milwaukee squad has Giannis and can win anytime anywhere.

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Miami is 9-7 ATS against Miami over the last 3 seasons.

Milwaukee is 2-2 ATS versus Miami at Milwaukee over the last 3 seasons.

2 of 4 games have gone Over the total.

Miami:  C Bam Adebayo (thumb) Out ** SF Jimmy Butler (Tailbone) Quest ** PF Markieff Morris (neck) Out, SG Victor Oladipo (quad) quest.  They are missing or may be missing a near all star lineup.

Bucks: SF Giannis (calf) will play if Jimmy plays on the other side ** C Brook Lopez (Back) Out Indefinitely ** 

Heat: F PJ Tucker, F Duncan Robinson, C Dewayne Dedmon, G Kyle Lowry, G Tyler Herro

Bucks: F Khris Middleton, F Pat Connaughton, C Bobby Portis, G Grayson Allen, G Jrue Holiday 

Heat

Points: Jimmy Butler 23.6

Assists: Kyle Lowry 7.6

Rebounds: Bam Adebayo 10.2

Steals: Jimmy Butler 2.1

Blocks: Caleb Martin 0.4

Bucks

Points: Giannis 27.6

Assists: Jrue Holiday 6.1

Rebounds: Giannis 11.8

Steals: Jrue Holiday 1.4

Blocks: Brook Lopez 3.0

Heat: Erik Spoelstra.  Coach Spoelstra is the real deal… NBA legend, future HOF, been the head coach since 2008, puts up with Pat Riley, 2X NBA champion, 5X Eastern Conference Champion.

Bucks: Mike Budenholzer.  Coach Budenholzer was on the hot seat.  Everyone who is anyone said so…. Then he won an NBA Championship!!  Big win, no more hot seats!  Then Giannis hinted to the press that he could leave in two seasons, because he has done enough in Milwaukee and “feelings can change”... Mike is officially on the hot seat again.  He needs to win again if they have a chance of keeping Giannis… Me personally, I’d trade Giannis for a King’s ransom on draft night of this coming offseason (win or not).  That would keep Milwaukee relevant long after Giannis leaves. (which he will do for ad dollars) .