by Chuck Sommers
Friday, Dec 03, 2021
Time: 7 p.m. ET
Venue: Gainbridge Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, IN
Where to watch: Bally Sports Indiana, Bally Sports Sun
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Pacers -5
BetMGM: Pacers -5.5
Caesars: NL
Season record
Heat: 13-9
Pacers: 9-15
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Heat - Pacers preview and analysis
Recent form
Heat: lost three of four; lost 111-85 vs. Cavaliers on Wednesday
Pacers: lost three straight; lost 114-111 vs. Hawks on Wednesday
The Miami Heat are in a bit of a bind without some of their big names. Friday might provide some reprieve.
Miami will take on the Indiana Pacers for the start of a quick two-game, back-to-back road trip as the Heat enter having lost three of four.
After a big-time win Saturday against the Chicago Bulls to cap a four-game road trip, the Heat returned home for two games but did not have Jimmy Butler for either of them; Miami dropped the first game 120-111 to the Denver Nuggets on Monday.
Things didn't get any better the next game against the Cleveland Cavaliers. All-Star big man Bam Adebayo was diagnosed with a torn UCL in his right thumb and is expected to miss at least a month. In addition to Butler missing that game due to a back injury, the Heat lost by 26 points at home to the upstart Cavs.
"When you lose an All-Star player, it's never easy," Miami coach Erik Spoelstra said. "But this is the league, and when I look around the league, I see a lot of teams dealing with injuries, guys out and guys coming back."
Tyler Herro, who is off to a stellar start off the bench, becomes the No. 1 option offensively in Butler and Adebayo's absence. The sharpshooter scored 21 points but went 9 of 23 to get there.
"Guys will have to step up, not just bigs, but guards have to help rebound," Herro said after the Heat were outrebounded 46-28 against Cleveland. "All five guys on the floor can really impact the game whether it's defensively or rebounding."
Despite the injuries, the Heat were favored the last two games and have been favored in the last nine overall. Friday's matchup will be the first time since Nov. 13, in a 111-105 win at the Utah Jazz, where the Heat are outright underdogs. The Pacers are favored by 5 points despite being on a three-game losing streak.
Indiana has lost consecutive one-possession games, more recently in a 3-point loss against the Atlanta Hawks at home. The Pacers had five players in double figures led by Malcolm Brogdon's 27 points and nine assists on 10 of 20 shooting, but the Hawks shot 51.2 percent and escaped behind a 33-point, 10-assist double-double from Trae Young.
The Pacers are off to a shaky start under new coach Rick Carlisle, but the defense that was a problem at times with the Dallas Mavericks has reared its ugly head back in Indiana. The Pacers are giving up nearly 107 points per game while allowing 11 3-pointers per game.
"We had defensive breakdowns and they closed the game out," Brogdon said.
Indiana has failed to cover in two of the last three during its losing streak; they were +4 in the 2-point loss to Minnesota on Nov. 29. Miami, meanwhile, has gone 1-5 against the spread in its last six after covering the previous four.
Prediction
This is the kind of game for Pacers big man Myles Turner to impose his will. Without Adebayo, the Heat lose a huge rebounding and interior presence. Turner should be able to exploit Dewayne Dedmon, whether it be as a stretch five or dominating down low. Miami has capable players, but things change a ton when you miss two All-Stars. Pacers by 15
Betting trends
The Heat are 5-0 ATS in their last five as an underdog.
The Heat are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 after losing by 10 or more as a favorite the previous game.
The over is 4-0 in the Pacers’ last four home games.
Projected starting lineup
Heat:
PG: Kyle Lowry
SG: Tyler Herro
SF: Duncan Robinson
PF: P.J. Tucker
C: Dewayne Dedmon
SF: Duncan Robinson
PF: P.J. Tucker
C: Dewayne Dedmon
Pacers:
PG: Malcolm Brogdon
SG: Caris LeVert
SF: Torrey Craig
PF: Domantas Sabonis
C: Myles Tucker
SF: Torrey Craig
PF: Domantas Sabonis
C: Myles Tucker
Key injuries
Heat: Jimmy Butler (back, out), Bam Adebayo (thumb, out), Markieff Morris (neck, out), Victor Oladipo (quad, out)
Pacers: T.J. McConnell (wrist, out), Justin Holliday (COVID, out), T.J. Warren (foot, out)
Statistical leaders
Heat:
Points: Jimmy Butler – 23.6
Rebounds: Bam Adebayo – 10.2
Assists: Kyle Lowry – 7.6
Pacers:
Points: Malcolm Brogdon – 21.0
Rebounds: Domantas Sabonis – 11.9
Assists: Malcolm Brogdon – 6.1
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Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
