Game Time: 7:00 PM ET, Saturday, February 5th, 2022 

Venue: Spectrum Center, Charlotte, North Carolina

Where to Watch:  NBA League Pass

DraftKings:  Spread:  Miami -3.5; 

BetMGM:  Spread:  NL

VegasInsider:  Spread:  Miami -3.5; O/U 225

WynnBet: Spread:   Miami -3; O/U 225

Heat: 33-20, 2nd place Eastern Conference

Hornets: 28-24, 8th place Eastern Conference

An Eastern Conference battle between the #2 team and the #8 team.  The #2 team has more wins and is more experienced.  The #8 team is younger and more exciting to watch.  Will this battle turn the tide of war?  Meh?... Is there a clear winner providing great betting opportunities on both the spread and the O/U?  Absolutely.  The Miami Heat have been vacillating between the #1 spot and the #2 spot in the Eastern Conference since they leapfrogged the Brooklyn Nets a few weeks ago.  They are essentially tied with the Chicago Bulls right now except the Bulls postponed two games back in Covid crazy mid-December… so the Bulls win pct is higher.  The belt is tightening at the top however.  The Bulls, Heat, Philadelphia 76ers, and Milwaukee Bucks are all within a win or loss from being alone at #1… meanwhile the Cleveland Cavaliers are only ½ game back from the Bucks… something will have to give!... The problem for the Charlotte Hornets is just how amazingly close the top five teams are in the Eastern Conference.  The Hornets are 4.5 games back from 1st place in the East… which is still great BTW!  The Hornets are in 8th place with only ⅓ of a season left to play… that hasn’t happened too often over the last 20 seasons.  Plus they have a young exciting group that threatens to keep getting better with every game of experience they play together.  Another team and I would write that they aren’t trying hard enough… but this is Charlotte?!  Charlotte in 8th place with a 2nd year LaMelo Ball on the cusp of making the next ten all-star games!  That is a great start for Charlotte.  The one persistent problem standing in Charlotte’s way is that they start Mason Plumlee at Center… the trade deadline is almost here… it’s time to change that.  It’s time to add some picks to a deal (the last thing Charlotte needs is more young players) and get a Center worthy of a starting spot in the NBA.  If they can’t find a good center… heck even Christian Wood from the Houston Rockets would be better than Mason Plumlee.

The Miami Heat have won 6 of their last ten games.  They dropped the ball with 1st place because three of the losses were in the last four games.  They lost to the Toronto Raptors in overtime, then the Boston Celtics, then the Toronto Raptors again.  They only got to right the ship in the last game with a win over the San Antonio Spurs.  (A Spurs team without Dejounte Murray).  For the Heat Jimmy Butler, Kyle Lowry, and Bam Adebayo are rounding into shape as a solid trio.  It must have been hell for Kyle Lowry to lose 2 games to his former team in a four day span.  It also is no coincidence that two of the losses were played without SF Jimmy Butler, the team’s leading scorer, who was recouping from the dings that players of his effort tend to pick up along the way.

The Charlotte Hornets have won 5 of their last ten games.  In the Eastern Conference .500 ball may keep the Hornets in eighth place the rest of the way, but it won’t help them move up any… even if the Brooklyn Nets keep plummeting like an AC unit knocked out the window of a skyscraper.  Hornets leading scorer SF Mile Bridges and floor general PG LaMelo Ball  BOTH missed the All-star game.  It’s a shame.  It’s also why they need to take losses more personally.  It’s also why they both need to buckle down on defense.  It’s also why they both need to go to the GM and flat-out demand improvement at the Center position.  Domantas Sabonis is out there in the cold with the Indiana Pacers…  The Hornets should be desperate to meet a price to get him… Hayward, Oubre, Plumlee, +2 first rounders?... Worth a try.

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The Miami Heat are 33-20 on the season, but 30-23 ATS. They have logged 33 Overs and 20 Unders.  They are 15-14 in road games.

The Charlotte Hornets are 28-24 on the season, but 31-21 ATS.  They have notched 26 Overs, 25 Unders, and 1 Push.  They are 14-8 in home games.

The Heat are 16th in scoring with 108.8 ppg, 17th in rebounds with 44.5 per game, and 14th in AST/TO ratio with 1.7.  They are shooting 14th in FG%, 3rd in 3PT%, and 3rd in FT%.  They rank 5th on defense while allowing 104.8 ppg from opponents.

The Hornets are 1st in scoring with 114.3 ppg, 20th in rebounds with 44.3 per game, and 2nd in AST/TO with 2.1. They are shooting 13th in FG%, 4th in 3PT%, and 28th in FT% a team lodged in 8th place is leaving several points a night on the table at the charity stripe.  Yuck.  On defense they are an awful 28th place while allowing 114.6 ppg from opponents.  With wildly successful offensive numbers… the frontline of PJ Washington at PF and Mason Plumlee at Center aren’t getting it done at either end of the floor.  A move needs to be made or they will spend all season watching the skill players drop 110 a game and the frontline giving up 114 per game.  I know it's not that simple, but it is pretty clear where the improvements need to be made.  They can not fix this season’s team in next season's draft… get on it.

Our prediction for Saturday, February 5th is….  Hornets 118 - Heat 117

This is a tough matchup to grade.  The Hornets score the ball really really well.  The Heat are missing a few extra players to the injury list.  The Hornets can barely play defense.  This is a trap game.  It will be close or the Heat will win? but the Hornets will cover the spread!  The Heat have been battered, winning only 1 of their last 4 games.  The Heat are vulnerable and the Hornets can steal this one.

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5 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER, the last 3 seasons.

Miami is 9-2 ATS after playing 3 consecutive road games this season.

Charlotte is 17-5 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record this season.

Heat: SF Cody Martin (achilles) Quest, SG Victor Oladipo (knee) Out ** C Omer Yurtseven (ill) Out ** PF Marcus Morris (neck) Out

Hornets: SF Gordon Hayward (foot) Out ** PF Jalen McDaniels (ankle) Out

Heat: PF P.J Tucker, SF Jimmy Butler, C Bam Adebayo, PG Kyle Lowry, SG Duncan Robinson

Hornets: SF Miles Bridges, PF P.J. Washington, C Mason Plumlee, PG LaMelo Ball, SG Terry Rozier 

Heat

Points: Jimmy Butler 21.7

Assists: Kyle Lowry 8.2

Rebounds: Bam Adebayo 10

Steals: Jimmy Butler 1.9

Blocks: Bam Adebayo 0.6

Hornets

Points: Miles Bridges 19.9

Assists: LaMelo Ball 7.7

Rebounds: Mason Plumlee 7.6

Steals: LaMelo Ball 1.5

Blocks: P.J. Washington 1.0