by Rod Pearson
Tuesday, Oct 01, 2024
Game Time: 1:00 pm ET, Sunday, October 6, 2024
Venue: Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA
Where to Watch: FOX
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Point Spread: Dolphins +1, Patriots -1; Over/Under: 35.5 points
Bet365: Point Spread: Dolphins +1, Patriots -1; Over/Under: 35.5 points
BetMGM: Point Spread: Dolphins +1, Patriots -1; Over/Under: 35.5 points
Season Record
Miami Dolphins: 1-3 (4th place, AFC East)
New England Patriots: 1-3 (3rd place, AFC East)
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Recent Form
Miami Dolphins: lost their last game at home against the Tennessee Titans 31-12.
New England Patriots: lost their last game on the road against the San Francisco 49ers 30-13.
Miami Dolphins vs New England Patriots Preview and Analysis
The Dolphins are entering this game with a 1-3 record overall and they have a 0-1 record in their divisional games too. They are 1-2 in their home games, 0-1 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be on the road for this game. They lost their last game against the Tennessee Titans 31-12. Tyler Huntley was the starting QB and he completed 14/22 passes for 96 passing yards, 0 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. Tyler Huntley led the team in rushing yards with 40 and 1 TD. Jaylen Waddle led the receivers with 36 receiving yards on 4 receptions. Jordyn Brooks led the defense in that game with 9 solo tackles and 4 assisted tackles while Jordyn Brooks led the defense in sacks with 1. Emmanuel Ogbah came away with the only interception for them in that one.
The Patriots are entering this game with a 1-3 record overall and they have a 0-1 record in their divisional games too. They are 0-1 in their home games, 1-2 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at home for this game. They lost their last game against the San Francisco 49ers 30-13. Jacoby Brissett was the starting QB and he completed 19/32 passes for 168 passing yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception. Rhamondre Stevenson led the team in rushing yards with 43. Antonio Gibson led the receivers with 67 receiving yards on 3 receptions. Raekwon McMillan led the defense in that game with 6 solo tackles and 1 assisted tackle while Deatrich Wise Jr. led the defense in sacks with 1. Jabrill Peppers came away with the only interception for them in that one.
Dolphins vs Patriots Prediction
The current betting odds have the Patriots listed as a 1 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Patriots have looked terrible in their games this season with their 1-3 record overall, but they have had a really tough schedule to open up the season. They have played in some tighter games before the last 2 and even have an upset win over the Bengals earlier this season. They have been blown out in their last 2 games now, but both games were on the road and against tougher teams like the Jets and the 49ers. The Patriots will have a better game now that they are back at home and they are playing a much weaker team that they will be able to stick to their game plan. Meanwhile, the Dolphins have looked terrible in their games this season with their 1-3 record overall, but they have been a completely different kind of terrible. They have been blown out over the last 2 weeks as they don't really have an answer for an injured Tua Tagovailoa, and the offense hasn't been able to do much with the backups. This team is in disarray at the moment, but even before the QB injury, the offense looked out of sync. The Patriots don't have a great offense, but they do have a solid game manager with Brissett and they also have a solid run game to lean on here. Both of these teams have been bad this season, but the Patriots are in a much better situation than the Dolphins are in right now. The best way to place a bet here is on the Patriots to cover the spread in this game.
Dolphins Patriots Prediction: Our NFL Pick for Sunday, October 6, 2024 (1:00 pm ET start time) is Patriots 20 Dolphins 13.
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NFL Betting Trends
Miami Dolphins: 10-4 ATS versus division opponents. 11-6 ATS when playing against a team with a losing record. 6-3 ATS vs. poor teams - outscored by 6+ points per game on the season. 4-1 UNDER off a home loss. 8-2 UNDER after allowing 30 points or more last game. 11-5 UNDER after 1 or more consecutive losses.
New England Patriots: 14-22 ATS in all games. 5-11 ATS in home games. 6-12 ATS in games where the line is +3 to -3. 2-7 ATS off a road loss. 11-2 UNDER as a favorite. 14-5 UNDER in games where the line is +3 to -3. 8-2 UNDER off a road loss. 16-6 UNDER after 1 or more consecutive losses.
Key Injuries
Miami Dolphins: M. Washington (WR) Questionable - Quadricep. A. Ingold (FB) Injured - Shoulder. S. Duck (CB) Injured - Shoulder. T. Armstead (T) Out - Concussion. K. Fuller (CB) Out - Concussion. R. Mostert (RB) Questionable - Chest. S. Neal (CB) Injured - Hamstring. S. Thompson (QB) Questionable - Ribs. J. Phillips (LB) Injured - Achilles. D. Long (LB) Doubtful - Hamstring. T. Hill (WR) Injured - Rest. C. Campbell (DT) Injured - Rest.
New England Patriots: C. Wallace (T) Questionable - Knee. J. Jones (CB) Questionable - Shoulder. M. Jordan (G) Out - Ankle. A. Austin (CB) Out - Ankle. S. Sow (G) Questionable - Ankle. V. Lowe (T) Out - Knee. A. Jennings (LB) Questionable - Shoulder. H. Henry (TE) Injured - Ankle. C. Gonzalez (CB) Injured - Shoulder. M. Onwenu (OL) Injured - Wrist. J. Peppers (SAF) Injured - Ankle. D. Andrews (C) Injured - Rest.
Notable Quotes
“There's a major disconnect between preparation and execution.” - Mike McDaniel after his team’s loss against the Titans in their last game.
“At this point, Jacoby is our starting quarterback. I haven’t watched any film or anything like that. He’s been a great leader. ... We’ve got to watch the film. We’ve got a long flight to go back and watch the film and we’re always evaluating every single position.” - Jerod Mayo after his team’s loss against the 49ers in their last game.
Starting Lineups
Miami Dolphins
WR Waddle, Jaylen
WR Hill, Tyreek
WR Berrios, Braxton
TE Smith, Jonnu
QB Huntley, Tyler
RB Achane, De'Von
FB Ingold, Alec
New England Patriots
WR Polk, Ja'Lynn
WR Osborn, K.J.
WR Douglas, DeMario
TE Henry, Hunter
QB Brissett, Jacoby
RB Stevenson, Rhamondre
Statistical Leaders
Miami Dolphins
Passing: T. Tagovailoa (483)
Rushing: D. Achane (165)
Receiving: T. Hill (217)
Touchdowns: D. Achane (2)
New England Patriots
Passing: J. Brissett (536)
Rushing: R. Stevenson (267)
Receiving: H. Henry (148)
Touchdowns: R. Stevenson (2)
Coaches:
Miami Dolphins: Mike McDaniel (3rd season)
New England Patriots: Jerod Mayo (1st season)
Rod Pearson
About the Author:
Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life. He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years. In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective. Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.
