by Rod Pearson
Friday, Dec 27, 2024
Game Time: 4:05 pm ET, Sunday, December 29, 2024
Venue: Huntington Bank Field, Cleveland, OH
Where to Watch: CBS
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Point Spread: Dolphins -6.5, Browns +6.5; Over/Under: 39.5 points
Bet365: Point Spread: Dolphins -6.5, Browns +6.5; Over/Under: 39.5 points
BetMGM: Point Spread: Dolphins -6.5, Browns +6.5; Over/Under: 39.5 points
Season Record
Miami Dolphins: 7-8 (2nd place, AFC East)
Cleveland Browns: 3-12 (4th place, AFC North)
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Miami Dolphins: won their last game at home against the San Francisco 49ers 29-17.
Cleveland Browns: lost their last game on the road against the Cincinnati Bengals 24-6.
Miami Dolphins vs Cleveland Browns Preview and Analysis
The Dolphins are entering this game with a 7-8 record overall and they have a 3-2 record in their divisional games too. They are 5-3 in their home games, 2-5 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be on the road for this game. They won their last game against the San Francisco 49ers 29-17. Tua Tagovailoa was the starting QB and he completed 22/34 passes for 215 passing yards, 1 touchdown, and 0 interceptions. De’Von Achane led the team in rushing yards with 120 and 1 TD. De’Von Achane led the receivers with 70 receiving yards on 6 receptions. Jordyn Brooks led the defense in that game with 4 solo tackles and 3 assisted tackles while Jordyn Brooks, Zach Sieler, and Chop Robinson each led the defense in sacks with 1. Kader Kohou came away with the only interception for them in that one.
The Browns are entering this game with a 3-12 record overall and they have a 2-3 record in their divisional games too. They are 2-5 in their home games, 1-7 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at home for this game. They lost their last game against the Cincinnati Bengals 24-6. Dorian Thompson-Robinson was the starting QB and he completed 20/34 passes for 157 passing yards, 0 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions. Jerome Ford led the team in rushing yards with 92 and 1 TD. David Njoku led the receivers with 66 receiving yards on 8 receptions. Jordan Hicks led the defense in that game with 7 solo tackles and 2 assisted tackles while Michael Hall Jr., Myles Garrett, Grant Delpit, and Isaiah McGuire each led the defense in sacks with 1. No one on the defense came away with an interception for them in that one.
Dolphins vs Browns Prediction
The current betting odds have the Dolphins listed as a 6.5 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Dolphins haven't looked good in their games this season with their 7-8 record overall which has them in 2nd place of the AFC East and out of the division race, but that record still has them alive to make the playoffs in a Wild Card. They need a lot to happen to make the playoffs, but the biggest thing for them is to focus on winning the last 2 games. They will have some momentum from their win over the 49ers last week and their offense has looked good in a lot of their games since Tua came back from his injury. Meanwhile, the Browns have looked terrible in their games this season with their 3-12 record overall which has them at the bottom of the AFC North with one of the worst records in the entire NFL. Jameis Winston has been the starting QB for most of the season and he did turn the ball over quite a bit, but he also gave the team a chance to win with the offense moving the ball better. they looked terrible with DTR at QB last week, putting up just 6 points in their 24-6 loss to the Bengals who have one of the worst defenses in the NFL. The Dolphins haven't looked great on defense this season, but they have been better than the Bengals and if DTR couldn't do anything against that defense, this game won't be any better for him. The Dolphins have a lot more talent on their team and they are still playing for something this season so they are going to fight to win this game and will be able to pull away as the Browns won't keep up on offense. The best way to place a bet here is on the Dolphins to cover the spread in this game.
Dolphins Browns Prediction: Our NFL Pick for Sunday, December 29, 2024 (4:05 pm ET start time) is Dolphins 28 Browns 7.
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NFL Betting Trends
Miami Dolphins: 6-1 ATS vs. poor passing teams averaging 5.7 or less passing yards/att. 15-8 ATS when playing against a team with a losing record. 9-3 ATS vs. poor teams - outscored by 6+ points per game on the season. 11-5 OVER as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points. 15-8 OVER when playing against a team with a losing record. 8-4 OVER vs. poor teams - outscored by 6+ points per game on the season.
Cleveland Browns: 1-4 ATS against AFC East division opponents. 4-8 ATS when playing against a team with a losing record. 5-0 OVER against AFC East division opponents. 6-4 OVER after a loss by 14 or more points.
Key Injuries
Miami Dolphins: M. Washington (WR) Injured - Knee. A. Walker (LB) Injured - Knee. T. Hill (WR) Injured - Wrist. J. Poyer (SAF) Injured - Knee. T. Armstead (T) Injured - Knee. K. Fuller (CB) Injured - Knee. T. Tagovailoa (QB) Injured - Hip. J. Brooks (LB) Injured - Quad. D. Eskridge (WR) Injured - Knee. A. Ingold (FB) Injured - Ankle. J. Waddle (WR) Injured - Knee. C. Campbell (DT) Injured - Rest.
Cleveland Browns: G. Ifedi (OG) Injured - Achilles. M. Emerson (CB) Injured - Back. D. Njoku (TE) Injured - Knee. J. Winston (QB) Injured - Shoulder. J. Jeudy (WR) Injured - Knee. O. Okoronkwo (DE) Injured - Knee. D. Bush (LB) Injured - Shoulder. K. Hudson (OLB) Injured - Back. C. Tillman (WR) Injured - Concussion. D. Thompson-Robinson (QB) Injured - Calf. S. Harris (DT) Injured - Elbow.
Notable Quotes
“That was something that we needed to see as a team together. You could see in all three phases that we were able to play the complementary football that we said we wanted to play.” - Tua Tagovailoa after their win against the 49ers in their last game.
“Obviously, you turn the ball over in the red zone, especially the first one, you're not going to put yourself in position to get a win on the road. Not a lack of effort. It's a lack of protecting the ball.” - Kevin Stefanski after his team’s loss against the Bengals in their last game.
Starting Lineups
Miami Dolphins
WR Cracraft, River
WR Hill, Tyreek
WR Washington, Malik
TE Smith, Jonnu
QB Tagovailoa, Tua
RB Achane, De'Von
FB Ingold, Alec
Cleveland Browns
WR Woods II, Michael
WR Moore, Elijah
WR Jeudy, Jerry
TE Njoku, David
QB Thompson-Robinson, Dorian
RB Ford, Jerome
Statistical Leaders
Miami Dolphins
Passing: T. Tagovailoa (2867)
Rushing: D. Achane (761)
Receiving: T. Hill (834)
Touchdowns: D. Achane (11)
Cleveland Browns
Passing: J. Winston (2121)
Rushing: J. Ford (543)
Receiving: J. Jeudy (1072)
Touchdowns: D. Njoku (5)
Coaches:
Miami Dolphins: Mike McDaniel (3rd season)
Cleveland Browns: Kevin Stefanski (5th season)
Rod Pearson
About the Author:
Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life. He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years. In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective. Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.
