Game Time: 8:30 PM ET, Saturday, May 7th, 2022 

Venue:   Chase Center, San Francisco, California 

Where to Watch: ABC

DraftKings:  Warriors -7; O/U 225.5

Fanduel:  Warriors -7; O/U 226.5

BetMGM: Warriors -6.5; O/U 225.5

Grizzlies: 56-26, 2nd place Western Conference

Warriors:  53-29, 3rd place Western Conference

An NBA Western Conference second round Playoff Series, Game 3.  This series is 1-1.  Both of the first two games have been close.  Last second shots, fourth quarter heroics… FIRE. Both the Golden State Warriors and the Memphis Grizzlies have legit stars… both have deep benches… both play Team basketball.  Each team is 1-1 ATS… guaranteeing that the spread stays close.  Advantage in this game should go to the Warriors since the series will now move to the Chase Center in San Francisco for Games 3 and 4.  However… Vegas has decided to set the spread at 6.5 to 7 points?... That is .5 to 1 larger than the difference in both of the first two games put together.  They are enticing you to bet heavily whichever way you feel it will break.  Whether or not Golden State hits the deep 3 ball will decide this game… will they?  Let’s look at the numbers and turn this big spread into a great betting opportunity.

The Memphis Grizzlies have won 6 of their last 10 games including the last 2 regular season games.  They are 6-4 ATS during that stretch.  It took the Grizzlies 6 games to eliminate the Minnesota Timberwolves which is why so many people write them off as too young to take down the Warriors… except the Timberwolves are good.  At least they have been since New Year’s Day.  The Grizzlies dropped one game at home essentially giving away their home court advantage for the series… However they lost that Game 1 by 1-point!  They won Game 2 by 5 points.  The Grizzlies snuck up on people this year, but are no longer a secret.  PG Ja Morant is their best player and possibly the best young player in the league not named Luka Doncic.  In the Game 2 win (106-101) PG Ja Morant had 47 points, 8 rebounds, and 8 assists… a all-time game!  There were several stretches in the game when Ja had 8, 9, and even 10 of the Grizzlies points in a row!  Only 3 other Grizzlies scored in double figures: SF Zaiire Williams 14 pts, PF Jaren Jackson Jr 12 points, and PF/C Brandon Clarke 10 points.  SG Desmond Bane who has been the ultimate Robin to Ja’s Batman all season long, was practically invisible with only 5 points on 2 of 7 shooting.  Desmond wanted to do more… but was best serving the team by playing top-notch defense on guys like Klay Thompson and Jordan Poole.  

The Golden State Warriors have won 8 of their last ten games including 3 regular season games.  They went 5-5 ATS during that stretch.  They sent the Denver Nuggets packing in their first series in 5 games.  A Gentleman’s sweep of 4-1.  Let’s face facts… The Warriors are the League’s most recent dynasty… and while it has been 3 seasons since that mattered… They have spent the intervening time rebuilding the roster to the same level of excellence.  The only question going forward is is the Big Three of PG Stephen Curry, SG Klay Thompson, and PF Draymond Green still able to get it down at their advanced ages?.. It helps that they picked up SG Jordan Poole along the way… plus they have first time all-star SF Andrew Wiggins in the fold.  The team did suffer a setback when Grizzlies SF Dillon Brooks hard fouled Warriors SG Gary Payton II.  The resulting fall led to a broken elbow with nerve damage and Gary will not return for this or the next series (and let’s face it… also not for any Finals if they get the chance).  Sf Dillon Brooks was tossed form that game and will be suspended from Game 3… The horrible part for the Grizzlies is that Dillon Brooks missed most of the season with injury anyway and the Grizzlies have a marginally better winning percentage without him than with him.  

Team Del Genio is 38-18 in the last 30 days of NBA betting.  The TEAM is killing the playoffs and if you had bet along with them you would be up +$16, 350. Don’t leave all this winning on the table!  Get Team Del Genio’s picks now!  Don’t miss out on these great chances to beat your Book! Make winning the thing you do from now on!! Stay with BigAl.com throughout the NBA Playoffs and let’s grow that bankroll! You can discover the best  picks right now at the Shop Picks page, where you can find all of the Best Bets from our champion sports handicappers. NCAAF, NFL, MLB, college football… get positive value from all your bets! Expert picks!  Fun fact… winning a wager is much better than making a wager!

Memphis is 61-29 on the season, but 57-32-1 ATS.  They have logged 46 Overs, 43 Unders, and 1 Push.  They are 28-16 in road games.

The Warriors are 57-31 on the season, but 44-41-4 ATS.  They have notched 40 Overs, 47 Unders, and 2 Push.  They are 33-10 in home games.

The Grizzlies are 2nd in scoring with 115.6 ppg, 1st in rebounds with 49.2 per game, and 5th in AST/TO ratio with 2.0.  On defense they rank 12th with 109.9 ppg from opponents.

The Warriors are 15th in scoring with 111.0 ppg, 7th in rebounds with 45.5 per game, and 12th in AST/TO ratio with 1.8.  On defense they rank 3rd with 105.5 ppg from opponents.

 

Our prediction for Saturday, May 7th is….. Grizzlies 117 - Warriors 115

Bet on the Grizzlies.  Even if they lose the game YOU HAVE 6.5 to 7 points in your pocket depending on which app or at which Book you place your bet. The first two games have been close.  The Grizzlies also have an important advantage along the frontline where Tillman is better than Looney and JJJ is quality enough to frustrate Draymond Green.  Also do not think for a second that the Grizzlies will miss Dillon Brooks as much as the Warriors will miss Gary Payton II… on paper they should… but in reality they won’t.  

Winners of Game 3 have won the Playoff series 73% of the time in NBA history.  Game 3 is pivotal.  Of course these numbers do include the many many sweeps and are therefore tilted when we are talking about a 1-1 matchup… still Game 3 is about who you think will cover the spread… NOT about who you think will win the series.

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Memphis is 12-4 ATS in the 3rd game of a playoff series since 1996.

Golden State is 60-36 ATS revenging a road loss as a favorite since 1996.

Memphis is 16 Over and 5 Under in a road game where the total is 220 - 229.5

Memphis is 9-4 ATS versus Golden State the last 3 seasons.

Grizzlies: SG Dillon Brooks (suspended) Out ** C Steven Adams (ill) Out 

Warriors: SG/PG Gary Payton II (elbow) Out ** SG Andre Igoudala (neck) Out ** C James Wiseman (knee) Out

Grizzlies: PF Jaren Jackson Jr, SF Zaiire Williams, C Xavier Tillman, PG Ja Morant, SG Desmond Bane

Warriors: SF Andrew Wiggins, PF Draymond Green, C Kevon Looney, SG Jordan Poole, PG Stephen Curry

Grizzlies: Taylor Jenkins

Warriors: Steve “the Ringmaster” Kerr