May Starting Pitching NL Overachievers

May Starting Pitching NL Overachievers

There are a few pitchers that stand out as overachievers in the month of May, posting impressive conventional numbers but with some concerns lurking deeper in the data. Here are four National League starters which you’ll likely want to likely avoid supporting moving forward after fortunate recent runs on the mound that are not likely sustainable. 

Bailey Falter – Pittsburgh Pirates

There has been some recent enthusiasm and improved play from the Pirates with the arrival of rookie Paul Skenes but Bailey Falter has also posted good numbers in the rotation. Falter was among MLB’s worst starters in 2023 eventually landing with the Pirates after being traded by the Phillies after being unable to match his solid 2022 results and being relegated back to AAA. Falter has a 3.55 ERA so far for Pittsburgh this season including a 2.73 ERA in the month of May. That success came with a 3.4 K/9 in the month as his FIP is 5.14. His BABIP is just .198 in his four May starts for incredible fortune. Falter has made three of his last four starts at home as well while posting a 4.73 season ERA on the road. 

Andrew Abbott – Cincinnati Reds

A second round pick in 2021, Andrew Abbott is a prized young left-handed starter for the Reds that delivered good numbers in his rookie season last year with a 3.87 ERA and a 9.9 K/9 in 21 starts. This season his ERA is down to 3.29 but in the month of May Abbott had a 5.06 FIP next to a 3.30 ERA. For the season his K/9 has fallen to just 6.6 and he has allowed 11 home runs in 11 starts. Abbott’s season includes road starts in several favorable pitching venues and he has stronger numbers away from home for the season. Abbott did not pitch well in his most recent start with six runs allowed and over his last four starts he has only 11 strikeouts in 25 innings of work. 

Javier Assad – Chicago Cubs

A surprise success story for the Cubs, Javier Assad has great numbers through his first 11 starts in 2024. He did take his first loss of the season in his last start in St. Louis put he has a 2.42 ERA in the month of May. Somehow Assad has avoided damage even with a 4.9 BB/9 in May as his BABIP is just .243 and he owns an over 88 percent strand rate. Assad has pitched well against a few contenders posting quality starts at Wrigley Field against the Brewers and Braves in May but there is little to suggest Assad can continue an All-Star caliber pace throughout the season. 

Austin Gomber – Colorado Rockies

Austin Gomber has brought his ERA down to 2.76 for the season with an impressive run in May, posting an 0.68 ERA in four starts. Gomber was dealt to the Rockies as part of the Nolan Arenado trade in 2021 and after a solid first season with the Rockies he has not had much success the past two seasons. The difference so far this season is a .232 BABIP compared to his career average of .293. He has also stranded nearly 88 percent of his baserunners this season compared to a career average of just over 71 percent. Gomber pitched on the road in three of his four starts and faced struggling Pittsburgh and Oakland lineups in that run as well. The run of success for Gomber is likely to be short-lived and his ERA is likely to climb closer to his current FIP of 4.60 by season’s end.