by Team Del Genio
Sunday, Jul 30, 2023Max Scherzer has not met the high expectations the New York Mets had for him this season. The 38-year-old was one of the best pitchers in baseball last season when he posted an 11-5 record for the Mets with a 2.29 ERA and a 0.91 WHIP in 23 starts and 145 1/3 innings. Yet going into his start on Friday at home against the Washington Nationals, the right-hander had just an 8-4 record with a 4.20 era and a 1.19 whip in 18 starts.
With their 48-54 record going into their weekend series with the Nationals, the Mets are seven games behind the Cincinnati Reds for the third and final wild-card spot in the National League playoffs. Yet New York had a 12-8 record this month. With six more games on deck against the lowly Nationals and Kansas City Royals, the Mets can still make some waves in the NL playoff race. While their dynamic duo of Justin Verlander along with Scherzer had not met their high expectations this season, Verlander has been quite good lately. If those two veteran hurlers get hot, the Mets could still have made a run in the last two months of the season.
Yet general manager Billy Eppler decided that the preferred approach for the organization was to trade assets. He traded away their closer David Robertson on Thursday or two bright prospects yet who are only in A-ball. He then traded Scherzer to the Texas Rangers on Saturday.
The Rangers may have been convinced that Scherzer can make a critical difference for them the rest of the way. After the season-ending injury to Jacob DeGrom, the team lacks a viable number-one starter in their rotation. Scherzer held Washington to just six hits and one earned run in seven innings of work to earn his ninth victory of the season.
Yet Scherzer's issues with the long ball this season continued in that effort with the Nationals' lone run coming on a home run. He served up four home runs in his previous start against Boston. He has given up 22 homers this season including 16 in his last ten starts. The 1.92 home runs per nine innings he is giving up this season is almost double the 1.04 homers per nine inning rate for his career.
Scherzer has struggled to adapt to the new pitch clock this season, and he has not always had his slider operating at its highest level. After eight straight seasons of striking out 30.6% or more of the batters he has faced, his strikeout rate has dropped to a 27.3% clip this season. Yet he does have 61 strikeouts in the 51 innings over his last eight starts. That 10.76 strikeouts per nine innings average during that span is right in line with his 10.11 strikeouts per nine innings average last year. Scherzer has a 3.53 ERA in his last eight starts which matches up with his expected ERA of 3.65 for the season. That is the pitcher that the Rangers can expect.
However, pitching at Global Life Field may compound Scherzers's gopher ball problem this season. The 132 home runs hit at the Rangers' home stadium is the most in the majors. The advanced statistics indicate that 5% more home runs are hit at Global Life Field versus the league average. On the other hand, the Mets' Citi Field has 5% fewer home runs than the league average.
When Scherzer was traded to the Los Angeles Dodgers in 2021, he posted a 7-0 record with a 1.98 ERA and a 0.82 WHIP for them in the regular season. Numbers that good are probably too much for the Rangers to expect. Yet Scherzer can expect to get more run support from the Texas lineup than what he had with the Mets. Given his home run issues this year, an ERA of 3.50 or so is a reasonable expectation for Scherzer the rest of the way. Yet given his improved strikeout rate over the last two months, the Rangers should have themselves an effective ace for the rest of the season.
Good luck - TDG.
With their 48-54 record going into their weekend series with the Nationals, the Mets are seven games behind the Cincinnati Reds for the third and final wild-card spot in the National League playoffs. Yet New York had a 12-8 record this month. With six more games on deck against the lowly Nationals and Kansas City Royals, the Mets can still make some waves in the NL playoff race. While their dynamic duo of Justin Verlander along with Scherzer had not met their high expectations this season, Verlander has been quite good lately. If those two veteran hurlers get hot, the Mets could still have made a run in the last two months of the season.
Yet general manager Billy Eppler decided that the preferred approach for the organization was to trade assets. He traded away their closer David Robertson on Thursday or two bright prospects yet who are only in A-ball. He then traded Scherzer to the Texas Rangers on Saturday.
The Rangers may have been convinced that Scherzer can make a critical difference for them the rest of the way. After the season-ending injury to Jacob DeGrom, the team lacks a viable number-one starter in their rotation. Scherzer held Washington to just six hits and one earned run in seven innings of work to earn his ninth victory of the season.
Yet Scherzer's issues with the long ball this season continued in that effort with the Nationals' lone run coming on a home run. He served up four home runs in his previous start against Boston. He has given up 22 homers this season including 16 in his last ten starts. The 1.92 home runs per nine innings he is giving up this season is almost double the 1.04 homers per nine inning rate for his career.
Scherzer has struggled to adapt to the new pitch clock this season, and he has not always had his slider operating at its highest level. After eight straight seasons of striking out 30.6% or more of the batters he has faced, his strikeout rate has dropped to a 27.3% clip this season. Yet he does have 61 strikeouts in the 51 innings over his last eight starts. That 10.76 strikeouts per nine innings average during that span is right in line with his 10.11 strikeouts per nine innings average last year. Scherzer has a 3.53 ERA in his last eight starts which matches up with his expected ERA of 3.65 for the season. That is the pitcher that the Rangers can expect.
However, pitching at Global Life Field may compound Scherzers's gopher ball problem this season. The 132 home runs hit at the Rangers' home stadium is the most in the majors. The advanced statistics indicate that 5% more home runs are hit at Global Life Field versus the league average. On the other hand, the Mets' Citi Field has 5% fewer home runs than the league average.
When Scherzer was traded to the Los Angeles Dodgers in 2021, he posted a 7-0 record with a 1.98 ERA and a 0.82 WHIP for them in the regular season. Numbers that good are probably too much for the Rangers to expect. Yet Scherzer can expect to get more run support from the Texas lineup than what he had with the Mets. Given his home run issues this year, an ERA of 3.50 or so is a reasonable expectation for Scherzer the rest of the way. Yet given his improved strikeout rate over the last two months, the Rangers should have themselves an effective ace for the rest of the season.
Good luck - TDG.
