by Wayne Root
Thursday, Mar 20, 2025Each year, this stage of March Madness brings a level of unpredictability that defies logic and keeps everyone hooked.
It’s where dreams of underdog victories are born, where top seeds tremble against fearless mid-majors, and where jaw-dropping moments become etched in tournament history.
First-round games set the tone for March Madness betting. In 2024, favorites went 21-11 SU and 18-13-1 ATS, with double-digit favorites excelling at 12-2 SU and ATS. This suggests oddsmakers are sharp early, but underdogs still cash—especially between +7 and +12 points. Since 2015, first-round underdogs are 136-115-2 ATS (54.2%), with 67 winning outright.
Totals also reveal tendencies. Early games (1 p.m. ET or before) since 2011 hit the under 62% of the time, possibly due to nerves or conservative play. In 2024, top-four seeds crushed it, going 14-2 SU and 12-3-1 ATS, reinforcing their reliability. Bettors should weigh these patterns but cross-check with current team stats—past trends don’t guarantee future results.
What makes this round so captivating is its raw uncertainty.
Speaking of uncertainties, be sure to cross check the time zones the teams are playing in. For example, Liberty is playing Oregon at 10:10 pm est on the west coast. By the 2nd half, their body clocks will be set to midnight est.
Others to consider
1. 8 vs 9 match up: Take the dog
In these matchups the UNDERDOG is 57-33 against the spread over the last 34 years.
2. 11 seeds are 29-27 straight up since 2012 with 91% of those being the underdog.
They have also been poised to make a DEEP run with 7 of the 17 teams (since 2012) making it to the second weekend.
3. Be sure to include the #1 seeds
There has only been one year that a team from the first four HAS NOT advanced to the round of 32.
Conferences can signal strength.
The Big East has claimed 4 of the last 10 titles, while the SEC and ACC also boast recent success. In 2025, Auburn (SEC) and Duke (ACC) lead futures odds at +350, reflecting conference prowess. The Mountain West, however, struggles—8-16 ATS since 2016 and 2-26 SU as double-digit seeds. Bettors might fade teams like San Diego State if they land tough draws.
Regionally, neutral-site performance hints at tournament readiness.
Teams with strong non-conference records at neutral venues—like Gonzaga or Tennessee—often translate that to March success. Conference realignment (e.g., UCLA to the Big Ten) muddies historical data, so focus on current season trends over decades-old patterns.
Is there a specific round where dogs do well?
The only time it's really paid off for bettors is in the Elite Eight, which is too small a sample size to read much into. In the first two rounds and Final Four, it's been a downright disaster.
Finally, is betting underdogs profitable?
It's not a simple yes or no answer on whether you should bet on an underdog or not. Underdogs will likely win less than 50 percent of the time, but that doesn't mean they won't be profitable. Recreational bettors often gravitate toward favorites, which can sometimes create value on the underdogs by inflating the lines. That’s where the sharp money and us seasoned professionals lay in wait.
Professional bettors study the markets, check the odds, and crunch the numbers. Sportsbooks use incredibly complex software to check the stats, predict the most likely outcome, and set the odds accordingly. We, at VEGASWINNERS follow suit..
