by Wayne Root
Tuesday, Mar 18, 2025There are too many ways to start with your handicapping whether it’s for individual games, futures or pools. I like to at least use these 10 things to look for as a start.
1. First half under bets in first round.
These teams will be nervous and playing in huge arenas and site lines will be off. I will bet every first half under on Thursday and Friday games. Since 2011, 58% and a seven year stretch of 69% overall.
2. TV timeouts.
Remember that a great experienced coach will know how to make quick sideline adjustments. Huge advantage in these games. I’ve seen as many players blow a game as I have with coaches.
3. Easier to slow a pace than speed them up.
Look for match ups. If a team with a high pace of play is playing a team that plays exceptionally slow, the fast pace team cannot speed up the slower team. Gives the dog an advantage.
4. Throw out home game stats and see what’s left.
4. Throw out home game stats and see what’s left.
If a team is 24-8 overall but of those games they’re 1-6 on the road and 0-1 on a neutral court, forget their wins at home and move on. For this tournament, they’re 1-7.
5. When heavy favorites get a big lead, rest is needed more than a blowout.
5. When heavy favorites get a big lead, rest is needed more than a blowout.
These teams that are 20 point plus favorites will look to close out most games with their starters on the bench resting. That’s is great for a back door cover. They need six wins in total; not a big blowout. Pace and rest.
6. 12 seed vs 5 seed
6. 12 seed vs 5 seed
For some reason the 12 seed is the team to upset and become the March Cinderella. The opposite as a two seed. They have fared poorly in this tournament the last decade.
7. Bet teams that have senior guards.
You’ll win many games with great guard play. Especially with those seniors that have the experience to keep their team at calm, focused and at bay.
8. Bet teams that can shoot the 3-pointer.
In this day and age, teams must be able to hit 35.5% of the threes for the year. Any less and you’re not winning many games. And the mid-majors that shoot lights out from three are providing the upsets and Cinderella stories.
9. Bet teams that are in the top 20 in offense AND in defense.
I don’t mean top 20 in either one but in both categories. Find them and they’ll be in the elite 8 and covering spreads along the way.
10. Bet teams where the higher seed is a favorite to the lower seed.
There’s one to start out with but as the tournament progresses, more and more will come out front depending on the matches. Advantage to the better seed getting the role as the underdog.
Good Luck
Wayne
