by Rod Pearson
Friday, Apr 04, 2025
Game Time: 4:05 pm ET, Saturday, April 5, 2025
Venue: Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, PA
Where to Watch: Fox Sports 1
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Moneyline odds: Dodgers -108, Phillies -112; Over/Under: 8.5 runs
Bet365: Moneyline odds: Dodgers -105, Phillies -115; Over/Under: 8.5 runs
BetMGM: Moneyline odds: Dodgers -105, Phillies -115; Over/Under: 8.5 runs
Season Record
Los Angeles Dodgers: 8-0 (1st place, NL West)
Philadelphia Phillies: 5-1 (1st place, NL East)
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Recent Form
Los Angeles Dodgers: 8-0 last 10
Philadelphia Phillies: 5-1 last 10
Los Angeles Dodgers vs Philadelphia Phillies Preview and Analysis
The Dodgers are entering this series off a win and completed the sweep in their 3-game series against the Atlanta Braves 3-0 in their last series. They enter this game with an 8-0 record overall and have a road record of 2-0. This is the 2nd game of a 3-game series with the Phillies on Saturday with the series opener still to be played on Friday. Their offense ranks 5th in the MLB with a .814 OPS. Yoshinobu Yamamoto is their starting pitcher on Friday while rookie pitcher Roki Sasaki is making his start in this game on Saturday. He is 0-0 with a 5.79 ERA this season. His team won their 2 games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 2 ER, 0 HR, and 4 BB with 2 Ks on 3 hits through 1.2 IP against the Detroit Tigers.
The Phillies are entering this series off a loss and completed the sweep in their 3-game series against the Colorado Rockies 3-0 in their last series. They enter this game with a 5-1 record overall and have a home record of 3-0. This is the 2nd game of a 3-game series with the Dodgers on Saturday with the 1st game of this series still to be played on Friday. Their offense ranks 2nd in the MLB with a .881 OPS. Jesús Luzardo is their starting pitcher on Friday while Aaron Nola is making his start in this game on Saturday. He is 0-1 with an 8.44 ERA this season. His team lost their only game this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 5 earned runs, 2 homers, and 0 BB with 8 strikeouts on 6 hits through 5.1 innings played against the Washington Nationals.
Dodgers vs Phillies Prediction
The current betting odds have the Phillies listed as a slight favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Phillies have looked good in their games this season with their 5-1 record overall which has them right at the top of the NL East with a great start to the season. They are also 3-0 in their home games this year and just swept the Rockies at home in their last series. Meanwhile, the Dodgers have looked great in their games this season with their 8-0 record overall which has them right at the top of the NL West with the best record in the entire MLB. They are also 2-0 in their road games this season, but both of those wins were their 2 games in Japan before the season started for the rest of the teams. This will be their first true road series of the season and if there is a team that can stop this Dodgers team that looks to be unstoppable, it is the Phillies. The Phillies have actually has the slightly better offense to start the season, and they are going to have the better pitching matchup too. They have Nola on the mound here and he wasn't great in his first start of the season, but he has been a very reliable starter for the Phillies over the years and he will be looking to bounce back with a better start against the MLB's best. The Dodgers definitely have a weakness on the mound too since they have their rookie Sasaki starting and he hasn't been as good as advertised in his first 2 starts this season. The Dodgers aren't going to win 162 games this season and this is a great situation against another really good team for them to pick up their first loss of the year. The best way to place a bet here is on the Phillies to win this game.
Dodgers Phillies Prediction: Our MLB Pick for Saturday, April 5, 2025 (4:05 pm ET start time) is Phillies 6 Dodgers 5.
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MLB Betting Trends
Los Angeles Dodgers: 94-50 (+31 units) on the moneyline when the money line is -100 to -150. 49-31 (+13.7 units) on the moneyline vs. good power teams - averaging 1.25 or more HR's/game. 65-45 (+10.5 units) on the moneyline vs. teams outscoring opp by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season. 39-23 OVER on the road when the money line is +125 to -125. 95-56 OVER when playing against a team with a winning record.
Philadelphia Phillies: 42-44 (-4.4 units) on the moneyline vs. teams outscoring opp by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season. 95-75 (-6.6 units) on the moneyline vs. an NL team with a team batting average of .255 or worse. 79-82 (-15.5 units) on the moneyline when playing against a team with a winning record. 49-36 OVER vs. good power teams - averaging 1.25 or more HR's/game. 25-18 OVER vs. a team slugging percentage of .430 or better on the season (NL).
Key Injuries
Los Angeles Dodgers: F. Freeman (1B) Day To Day - Ankle. K. Hurt (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. E. Sheehan (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. C. Kershaw (SP) Sixty Day IL - Toe. E. Henriquez (SP) Fifteen Day IL - Foot. M. Grove (RP) Sixty Day IL - Shoulder. B. Graterol (RP) Sixty Day IL - Shoulder. E. Phillips (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Shoulder. M. Kopech (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Shoulder. T. Gonsolin (SP) Fifteen Day IL - Back. R. Ryan (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. G. Stone (SP) Sixty Day IL - Shoulder.
Philadelphia Phillies: W. Wilson (LF) Ten Day IL - Oblique. R. Suarez (SP) Fifteen Day IL - Back.
Notable Quotes
"I was dumbfounded with the way we were playing. I didn’t recognize that club in the first couple innings. And then just dumbfounded we found a way to win that game. We had no business winning that game. But to our guys’ credit, we just kept fighting.” - Dave Roberts after his team’s win against the Braves in their game on Wednesday.
“Just pounding the zone, getting ahead, throwing strikes.” - Taijuan Walker after their win against the Rockies in their game on Thursday.
Starting Lineups
Los Angeles Dodgers
Shohei Ohtani (L) DH
Mookie Betts (R) SS
Teoscar Hernández (R) RF
Michael Conforto (L) LF
Will Smith (R) C
Tommy Edman (S) 2B
Max Muncy (L) 3B
Enrique Hernández (R) 1B
Andy Pages (R) CF
Philadelphia Phillies
Kyle Schwarber (L) DH
Trea Turner (R) SS
Bryce Harper (L) 1B
Alec Bohm (R) 3B
Max Kepler (L) LF
Nick Castellanos (R) RF
J.T. Realmuto (R) C
Bryson Stott (L) 2B
Brandon Marsh (L) CF
Statistical Leaders
Los Angeles Dodgers
Batting Average: Will Smith (.450)
Hits: Shohei Ohtani (10)
Home Runs: Tommy Edman (4)
RBI: Teoscar Hernández (8)
Stolen Bases: Shohei Ohtani (2)
Wins: Anthony Banda (2)
Saves: Tanner Scott (2)
ERA: Tyler Glasnow (0.00)
Philadelphia Phillies
Batting Average: Johan Rojas (.667)
Hits: Edmundo Sosa (9)
Home Runs: Kyle Schwarber (4)
RBI: Kyle Schwarber (8)
Stolen Bases: J.T. Realmuto (2)
Wins: Zack Wheeler (1)
Saves: José Alvarado (1)
ERA: Taijuan Walker (0.00)
Managers:
Los Angeles Dodgers: Dave Roberts (10th season)
Philadelphia Phillies: Rob Thomson (4th season)
Rod Pearson
About the Author:
Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life. He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years. In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective. Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.
