by Rod Pearson
Tuesday, Oct 15, 2024
Game Time: 8:08 pm ET, Wednesday, October 16, 2024
Venue: Citi Field, Flushing, NY
Where to Watch: Fox Sports 1
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Moneyline odds: Dodgers -108, Mets -112; Over/Under: 7.5 runs
Bet365: Moneyline odds: Dodgers -110, Mets -110; Over/Under: 7.5 runs
BetMGM: Moneyline odds: Dodgers -110, Mets -110; Over/Under: 8 runs
Season Record
Los Angeles Dodgers: 98-64 (1st place, NL West)
New York Mets: 89-73 (3rd place, NL East)
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Recent Form
Los Angeles Dodgers: 7-3 last 10
New York Mets: 6-4 last 10
Los Angeles Dodgers vs New York Mets Preview and Analysis
The Dodgers are entering this series off a win and won their best 3 out of 5 game series against the San Diego Padres 3-2 in the NLDS. They finished the regular season with a 98-64 record overall and had a road record of 46-35. This is the 3rd game of a best 4 out of 7 game series with the Mets on Wednesday for the NLCS. The Dodgers won the series opener on Sunday and lost the 2nd game on Monday. Their offense ranks 1st in the MLB with a .781 OPS. Ryan Brasier was their starting pitcher on Monday while Walker Buehler is making his start in this game on Wednesday. He is 1-6 with a 5.38 ERA this season. His team lost their only playoff game this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB start, he allowed 6 earned runs, 1 homer, and 1 BB with 0 strikeouts on 7 hits through 5 innings played against the San Diego Padres.
The Mets are entering this series off a win and won their best 3 out of 5 game series against the Philadelphia Phillies 3-1 in the National League Division Series. They finished the regular season with an 89-73 record overall and had a home record of 46-35. This is the 3rd game of a best 4 out of 7 game series with the Dodgers on Wednesday for the National League Championship Series. The Mets lost the 1st game on Sunday and won the 2nd game on Monday. Their offense ranks 6th in the MLB with a .744 OPS. Sean Manaea was their starting pitcher on Monday while Luis Severino is making his start in this game on Wednesday. He is 11-7 with a 3.91 ERA this season. His team lost their last playoff game this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB start, he allowed 3 ER, 2 HR, and 0 BB with 7 Ks on 6 hits through 6 IP against the Philadelphia Phillies.
Dodgers vs Mets Prediction
The current betting odds have the Mets listed as a slight favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Mets have looked good in their games this season with their 89-73 record overall which got them into the playoffs through the Wild Card. They kicked the Brewers out in the Wild Card Series and they kicked the Phillies out of the NLDS. They have also been good in their home games this season with their 46-35 road record. Meanwhile, the Dodgers have looked great in their games this season with their 98-64 record overall which won the NL West with the best record in the entire MLB. They have also looked great in their home games with their 46-35 road record. They have the home advantage in this series being the higher seed, but the Mets have flipped that by splitting the first 2 games in LA. Now the Mets have a chance to close out this series at home if they can win 3 games in a row against the Dodgers. They will have the better pitching matchup in this one as they are going with Severino. Severino has looked good in his starts this season with his 11-7 record and his 3.91 ERA. His team did lose the game he started against the Phillies, but they won his start against the Brewers in the Wild Card. He has given up 3 earned runs in each of his playoff starts too, but that has still been better than the Dodgers starter and Severino will be looking to bounce back with this being his first playoff start at home this year. Buehler is on the mound for the Dodgers and he is 1-6 with a 5.38 ERA. He was struggling during the regular season since he just came back from an injury late in the season, and he hasn't looked any better in the playoffs. He only started in 1 playoff game so far and he gave up 6 earned runs in one of their losses to the Padres. The Mets have shown all playoffs that they can put up runs and they just put up 7 runs on the Dodgers in the last game so scoring won't be an issue for them, and they do have the better matchup here. The best way to place a bet here is on the Mets to win this game.
Dodgers Mets Prediction: Our MLB Pick for Wednesday, October 16, 2024 (8:08 pm ET start time) is Mets 8 Dodgers 5.
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MLB Betting Trends
Los Angeles Dodgers: 5-12 (-6.1 units) on the moneyline as a road underdog of +100 or higher. 66-49 (-8.3 units) on the moneyline against right-handed starters. 47-34 (-11.2 units) on the moneyline vs. an NL team with a team batting average of .255 or worse. 68-43 OVER against right-handed starters. 51-28 OVER vs. an NL team with a team batting average of .255 or worse. 28-13 OVER when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%).
New York Mets: 58-35 (+10.4 units) on the moneyline as a favorite of -110 or higher. 70-52 (+16.8 units) on the moneyline against right-handed starters. 26-21 (+9.4 units) on the moneyline when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%). 7-2 OVER in playoff games. 8-3 OVER vs. a team slugging percentage of .430 or better on the season (NL). 28-19 OVER when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%).
Key Injuries
Los Angeles Dodgers: G. Lux (2B) Questionable - Hip. A. Vesia (RP) Out - Back. M. Rojas (SS) Out - Thigh. M. Grove (SP) Out - Shoulder. J. Kelly (RP) Out - Shoulder. C. Kershaw (SP) Out - Toe. B. Graterol (RP) Ten Day IL - Shoulder. G. Stone (SP) Sixty Day IL - Shoulder. T. Glasnow (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. R. Ryan (SP) Sixty Day IL - Forearm. D. May (SP) Out - Elbow. E. Sheehan (SP) Out - Elbow. T. Gonsolin (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. C. Brogdon (RP) Sixty Day IL - Foot.
New York Mets: P. Blackburn (RP) Sixty Day IL - Hand. C. Scott (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. D. Nunez (SP) Undefined - Forearm. J. McNeil (2B) Out - Wrist. S. Reid-Foley (RP) Sixty Day IL - Shoulder. D. Smith (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. B. Raley (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. R. Mauricio (SS) Sixty Day IL - Knee.
Notable Quotes
“I want Shohei to get five at-bats a game. I think he’s our best hitter, and I want him up there five times.” - Dave Roberts after his team’s loss against the Mets in game 2 on Monday.
“When you’re facing a bullpen day, I think it’s hard to game plan but you’ve got to go out there make adjustments, whether it’s putting the ball in play, moving a guy over, getting a guy in. Those are the little things that you have to do to win games in the playoffs when you’re facing an elite pitching staff.” - Carlos Mendoza after his team’s win against the Dodgers in game 2 on Monday.
Starting Lineups
Los Angeles Dodgers
Shohei Ohtani (L) DH
Mookie Betts (R) RF
Teoscar Hernández (R) LF
Freddie Freeman (L) 1B
Will Smith (R) C
Tommy Edman (S) SS
Max Muncy (L) 3B
Enrique Hernández (R) 2B
Andy Pages (R) CF
New York Mets
Francisco Lindor (S) SS
Mark Vientos (R) 3B
Brandon Nimmo (L) LF
Pete Alonso (R) 1B
Starling Marte (R) RF
Jesse Winker (L) DH
Jose Iglesias (R) 2B
Tyrone Taylor (R) CF
Francisco Alvarez (R) C
Statistical Leaders
Los Angeles Dodgers
Batting Average: Hunter Feduccia (.333)
Hits: Shohei Ohtani (197)
Home Runs: Shohei Ohtani (54)
RBI: Shohei Ohtani (130)
Stolen Bases: Shohei Ohtani (59)
Wins: Gavin Stone (11)
Saves: Evan Phillips (18)
ERA: Eduardo Salazar (0.00)
New York Mets
Batting Average: Jose Iglesias (.337)
Hits: Francisco Lindor (169)
Home Runs: Pete Alonso (34)
RBI: Francisco Lindor (91)
Stolen Bases: Francisco Lindor (29)
Wins: Sean Manaea (12)
Saves: Edwin Díaz (20)
ERA: Brooks Raley (0.00)
Managers:
Los Angeles Dodgers: Dave Roberts (9th season)
New York Mets: Carlos Mendoza (1st season)
Rod Pearson
About the Author:
Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life. He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years. In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective. Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.
