by Rod Pearson
Monday, Dec 23, 2024
Game Time: 1:00 pm ET, Saturday, December 28, 2024
Venue: Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA
Where to Watch: NFL Network
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Point Spread: Chargers -5, Patriots +5; Over/Under: 42.5 points
Bet365: Point Spread: Chargers -5, Patriots +5; Over/Under: 42 points
BetMGM: Point Spread: Chargers -5, Patriots +5; Over/Under: 42.5 points
Season Record
Los Angeles Chargers: 9-6 (2nd place, AFC West)
New England Patriots: 3-12 (4th place, AFC East)
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Recent Form
Los Angeles Chargers: won their last game at home against the Denver Broncos 34-27.
New England Patriots: lost their last game on the road against the Buffalo Bills 24-21.
Los Angeles Chargers vs New England Patriots Preview and Analysis
The Chargers are entering this game with a 9-6 record overall and they have a 3-2 record in their divisional games too. They are 5-3 in their home games, 4-3 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be on the road for this game. They won their last game against the Denver Broncos 34-27. Justin Herbert was the starting QB and he completed 23/31 passes for 284 passing yards, 2 touchdowns, and 1 interception. Gus Edwards led the team in rushing yards with 68 and 2 TDs. Ladd McConkey led the receivers with 87 receiving yards on 6 receptions. Daiyan Henley led the defense in that game with 7 solo tackles and 3 assisted tackles while Joey Bosa and Bud Dupree each led the defense in sacks with 1. No one on the defense came away with an interception for them in that one.
The Patriots are entering this game with a 3-12 record overall and they have a 1-4 record in their divisional games too. They are 1-5 in their home games, 2-6 in their road games, and they are also 0-1 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at home for this game. They lost their last game against the Buffalo Bills 24-21. Drake Maye was the starting QB and he completed 22/36 passes for 261 passing yards, 2 touchdowns, and 1 interception. Rhamondre Stevenson led the team in rushing yards with 60 and 1 TD. Kayshon Boutte led the receivers with 95 receiving yards on 5 receptions and 1 TD. Kyle Dugger led the defense in that game with 6 solo tackles and 2 assisted tackles while Jeremiah Pharms Jr. led the defense in sacks with 1. Marte Mapu came away with the only interception for them in that one.
Chargers vs Patriots Prediction
The current betting odds have the Chargers listed as a 5 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Chargers have looked good in their games this season with their 9-6 record overall which has them in 2nd place of the AFC West and fighting for a Wild Card spot. They haven't clinched a playoff spot yet so they will be fighting to win this game, and they picked up some momentum in their last game with a bounce back win over the Broncos. Meanwhile, the Patriots have looked terrible in their games this season with their 3-12 record overall which has them at the bottom of the AFC East with one of the worst records in the entire NFL. They have looked worse in their home games this season with their 1-5 home record. Drake Maye has looked good in their games even though they have been losing a lot of them, and they are coming off a really tight loss to the Bills in their last one. They went to Buffalo and lost 24-21 in a game they were leading in for a while, but that was a divisional rival they really wanted to beat so they won't have the same energy in this one. The Patriots don't have anything left to play for this season either while the Chargers are still fighting for a playoff spot, and a win here could lock that up for them so expect the Chargers to bring their best effort. They looked good in their come back win last week and their offense started to show some rhythm again which they have been lacking the last few weeks. They have struggled to run the ball without Dobbins, but the Patriots have a terrible run defense so the Chargers will be able to move the ball here. The best way to place a bet here is on the Chargers to cover the spread in this game.
Chargers Patriots Prediction: Our NFL Pick for Saturday, December 28, 2024 (1:00 pm ET start time) is Chargers 27 Patriots 10.
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NFL Betting Trends
Los Angeles Chargers: 9-4 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points. 7-3 ATS off a home win. 5-0 ATS when playing against a terrible team (Win Pct. <=25%). 29-19 UNDER in all games. 9-4 UNDER as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points. 11-6 UNDER when playing against a team with a losing record.
New England Patriots: 18-28 ATS in all games. 6-14 ATS in home games. 12-22 ATS as an underdog. 0-6 ATS after a 2 game road trip. 11-3 UNDER off a road loss. 7-3 UNDER after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse. 19-12 UNDER after 1 or more consecutive losses.
Key Injuries
Los Angeles Chargers: H. Hurst (TE) Questionable - Hip. K. Fulton (CB) Injured - Knee. E. Molden (CB) Doubtful - Knee. O. Ogbonnia (DT) Questionable - Pelvis. Z. Johnson (G) Questionable - Ankle. C. Hart (CB) Out - Concussion. D. Perryman (LB) Questionable - Groin. W. Dissly (TE) Out - Shoulder. J. Herbert (QB) Injured - Ankle.
New England Patriots: J. Tavai (LB) Injured - Groin. J. Hasty (RB) Injured - Ankle. A. Jennings (LB) Injured - Knee. C. Wallace (T) Injured - Ankle. D. Wise (DE) Injured - Foot. M. Jones (CB) Injured - Hip. J. Baker (WR) Injured - Concussion. C. Gonzalez (CB) Injured - Shoulder. V. Lowe (T) Injured - Shoulder. C. Strange (G) Injured - Knee. K. Dugger (SAF) Injured - Ankle. C. Barmore (DT) Injured - NIR - Personal.
Notable Quotes
“It was a total team effort by everyone. It was phenomenal. The test and challenge is how you are going to respond. They went back to work and stayed the course.” - Jim Harbaugh after his team’s win against the Broncos in their last game.
“It’s very frustrating. Just hurting ourselves, same things repeating. Those guys are playing hard. That’s the biggest thing. Those guys are fighting. We’re fighting, no matter whatever atmosphere out there.” - Drake Maye after their loss against the Bills in their last game.
Starting Lineups
Los Angeles Chargers
WR Johnston, Quentin
WR Palmer, Joshua
WR McConkey, Ladd
TE Hurst, Hayden
QB Herbert, Justin
RB Edwards, Gus
FB Matlock, Scott
New England Patriots
WR Bourne, Kendrick
WR Boutte, Kayshon
WR Douglas, DeMario
TE Henry, Hunter
QB Maye, Drake
RB Stevenson, Rhamondre
Statistical Leaders
Los Angeles Chargers
Passing: J. Herbert (3243)
Rushing: J. Dobbins (766)
Receiving: L. McConkey (960)
Touchdowns: J. Dobbins (8)
New England Patriots
Passing: D. Maye (2159)
Rushing: R. Stevenson (800)
Receiving: H. Henry (674)
Touchdowns: R. Stevenson (8)
Coaches:
Los Angeles Chargers: Jim Harbaugh (1st season)
New England Patriots: Jerod Mayo (1st season)
Rod Pearson
About the Author:
Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life. He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years. In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective. Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.
