Game Time: 10:10 pm ET, Saturday, June 18th, 2022 

Venue: T-Mobile Park, Seattle, Washington

Where to Watch: MLB.TV 

DraftKings: Angels -125, Mariners +125; O/U 8

Caesars:  Angels -135, Mariners +115; O/U 8

PointsBet: 

 

Angels: 29-35, 3rd place AL West

Mariners: 28-35, 4th place AL West

Saturday night will bring us Game 3 of the Los Angeles Angels visiting the Seattle Mariners. As predicted (here) Game 1 was an Angels victory.  The Angels won 4-1 on Thursday June 16th.  Game 2 will be starting 20 minutes from the writing of this sentence.  At this late hour the managers of either ball club have year to announce a starter for Tomorrow’s game (the game this prediction is all about).  We can assume they are playing wait and see as both teams have had recent struggles and may have to work through the bullpen to make it through Game 2.  **This failure to know the starting pitching also prevents the betting odds from being posted. ** Still we have several assumptions we can make through the numbers… So the prediction below will be based on those numbers.  

**The betting odds have been posted and the pitching matchup has been updated**

A Battle of American League West teams… that are essentially the same team.  They are both bad with a few good players.  They are essentially tied with bad records in the AL West. This is a game of “blink”… who will defy their bad stats long enough to get the win?  Sometimes we have a deficiency as bettors to only look at the good matchups… but the BAD matchups, the ones who won’t  make a difference, those are great betting opportunities.  We can see right into the numbers.   The Mariners have been bad from the jump of the season.  The Angels started great… then fell down a well so deep, the manager got fired.   The outcome of these matchups means an actual return on your betting dollar.  Let’s look at the numbers and get it right.

The Los Angeles Angels have won only 2 of their last 10 games.  They also happen to be the only two times the Angels offense looked alive.  Going 5 Over and 5 Under.  The Angels were built off a random idea of a baseball team.  The Angels braintrust paid big dollars to get P Shoehei Ohtani and Mike Trout… two of the best guys ever to step on a baseball diamond.  They don’t seem to be able to build the rest of the roster.  The Angels say they are “Los Angeles” but they actually play 50 miles away in Orange County.  While there is nothing essentially wrong with that… They do share the same “fakeness” as the Housewives of Orange County.  The entire team is smoke and mirrors built around 2-3 guys.  If someone ran the Angels with an eye toward building a complete baseball team that could compete?... Both Shohei and Trout would be traded away and the real work would begin.  

The Angels went 0-1 against the Dodgers (with one more to play tonight), 1-2 against the New York Mets, 1-3 against the New York Mets, and 0-2 to the Philadelphia Phillies. Mike Trout leads the Angels in Home Runs while Taylor Ward leads the team in Batting average.  Shohei Ohtani is the Angels greatest player as both a pitcher and a long-ball hitter… but he is having an off-year on the mound.  

The Seattle Mariners are a small market team disguised as a big city team.  Over the years the Mariners have had HUGE players in their system and on their team… and they have seemingly never gotten it done.  This season Eugenio leads them in home runs and Ty France leads them in batting average… but none of it means anything since the pitching is below average.

The Mariners have won 5 of their last 10 games.  They are going .500 at just the right time as a swooning Angels come to meet them with an essentially tied record.  They went 1-1 against the Minnesota Twins, 1-2 against the Boston Red Sox, 2-1 against the Houston Astros, and 1-1 against the Texas Rangers.  

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The Angels are 15th in scoring with 4.39 runs per game, 13th in batting average with .234, and 167th in OBP with .314.

The Mariners are 23rd in scoring with 4.08 runs per game, 22nd in batting average with .237, and 9th in OBP with .321.

The Angels’ pitching ranks 17th in the league in ERA with 3.92, 11th in WHIP with 1.23, and 20th in fielding errors with 38 on the season so far.

The Mariners’ pitchers are 20th in ERA with 3.98, 14th in WHIP with 1.25, and 2nd in fielding errors with a low low 24 on the season.

 

Our prediction for Saturday June 18th is… Angels 5 - Mariners 2

 

Game 1 showed us that the Angels were very happy to take a break from their losing ways and into the groove of a game against a very bad team.  It will be a fun vacation for the Angels.  Since it is a 5-game series the Angels should and can take the first 3 games… The 4th and 5th will be more of a stretch… but the first 3 should be easy.  The bet is on the Angels

 

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Seattle is 78-59 against division opponents the last 3 years.

Seattle is 5-1 when playing with a day off this season.

The Angels are 3-12 as a road underdog of +100 or higher.

The Angels have 56 Overs and 33 Unders against left-handed starters.  

 

Angels: LF T. Ward (hamstring) Out ** SS D. Fletcher (groin) Out **  

Mariners: SS J. Crawford, C T Murphy (shoulder) Out, 1B E. White (groin) Out ** CF K. Lewis (concussion) Out

Angels: LHP Jose Suarez, 0-2, 5.96 ERA, 19 strikeouts in 22 innings pitched.  1.85 WHIP.  By starting Jose Suarez ( the big, young arm with little control) The Angels are signaling a bullpen game.  They believe the Mariners are also out of quality pitching and are willing to give Jose a few innings of work.

Mariners: TBD. 

Angels:  LF Brandon Marsh, DH Mike Trout, 3B Anthony Rendon, 1B Jared Walsh, 2B Matt Duffy, RF Juan Lagares, C Kurt Suzuki, CF Tyler Wade, SS Andrew Velazquez

 

Mariners: 2B Adam Frazier, 1B Ty France, CF Julio Rodriguez, 3B Eugenio Suarez, DH Abraham Toro, C Cal Raleigh, RF Taylor Trammel, SS Dylan Moore, LF Sam Haggerty

Angels: Interim manager.  I will learn his name when he actually gets the job. 

Mariners: Scott Servais

Cloudy.  60* for the day’s high… this is a night game,..  Humidity 74% and precipitation 20%... welcome to Seattle where the warm summer weather is actually damp and chilly.  The winds are 8 mph.