Kentucky Wildcats vs Tennessee Volunteers Prediction, Picks and Game Preview - 03/28/2025

Game Time: 7:39 pm ET, Friday, March 28, 2025

Venue:  Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN 

Where to Watch:  TBS, truTV

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  Kentucky +3.5, Tennessee -3.5; Over/Under:  144.5 points

Bet365:  Point Spread:  Kentucky +3.5, Tennessee -3.5; Over/Under:  144.5 points

BetMGM:  Point Spread:  Kentucky +3.5, Tennessee -3.5; Over/Under:  144.5 points

Kentucky Wildcats:  24-11 (10-8) (6th place, SEC)

Tennessee Volunteers:  29-7 (12-6) (4th place, SEC)

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Kentucky Wildcats:  4-1  last 5

Tennessee Volunteers:  4-1  last 5

Kentucky is entering this game with a 24-11 record overall, a 10-8 record in conference games, and they are 5-2 in their neutral site games this season where they will be in this game. They are coming off a win against the Illinois Fighting Illini in their last game. Koby Brea led the team in points in that game with 23 while Otega Oweh was next on the team with 15. Amari Williams led the team in assists with 6 in that game while Amari Williams led the team in rebounds with 10. They were 47.1% from the field, 38.1% from 3-point range, and 60% from the free throw line with their shooting in that game. Their offense is averaging 85 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 77.2 PPG against them. Kentucky has an ATS record of 18-17 this season and their O/U record is 19-16.

Tennessee is entering this game with a 29-7 record overall, a 12-6 conference record, and they are 7-1 in their neutral site games this season where they will be in this game. They are coming off a win against the UCLA Bruins in their last game. Chaz Lanier led the team in points in that game with 20 while Zakai Zeigler was next on the team with 15. Zakai Zeigler led the team in assists with 6 in that game while Felix Okpara and Igor Miličić Jr. each led the team in rebounds with 7. They were 42.9% from the field, 50% from 3-point range, and 87.5% from the free throw line with their shooting in that game. Their offense is averaging 74.6 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 62.9 PPG against them. Tennessee has an ATS record of 19-17 this season and their O/U record is 16-20.

The current betting odds have Tennessee listed as a 3.5 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. Tennessee has looked really good in their games this season with their 29-7 record overall and their 12-6 conference record which had them in the top half of the SEC. They have also looked great in their neutral site games this season with their 7-1 record in those. Meanwhile, Kentucky has looked good in their games this season with their 24-11 record overall and their 10-8 conference record which had them in the top half of the SEC. They also looked good in neutral site games as they were 5-2 in those. Kentucky looked great in their first 2 games of this tournament, but they also haven't really been tested yet either. They beat up on Troy in their 1st game and now they are coming off a win over a really up and down Illinois team in the last round. Tennessee hasn't really been tested in this tournament either, beating Wofford in the 1st round, but they played a tougher UCLA team in their last one and still dominated that game from start to finish. Tennessee has been one of the best teams in the nation all season and a big reason for that has been their defense. They have one of the best defenses in the nation and defending is something that Kentucky doesn't do well at all. Kentucky did manage to beat Tennessee twice this season, but that is only going to motivate them more here to finally get a win over Kentucky when it matters most. The best way to place a bet here is on Tennessee to cover the spread in this game. 

Kentucky Tennessee Prediction:  Our NCAAB Pick for Friday, March 28, 2025 (7:39 pm ET start time) is Tennessee 74 Kentucky 68.

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Kentucky Wildcats: 17-8 ATS as an underdog. 27-20 ATS vs. good free throw shooting teams - making 72% of their attempts or more. 4-1 UNDER in NCAA tournament games. 9-4 UNDER on the road or at a neutral site when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 80%). 

Tennessee Volunteers: 4-8 ATS in a neutral court game where the total is 140 to 149.5. 19-26 ATS when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%). 17-9 UNDER in all neutral court games. 8-3 UNDER in a neutral court game where the total is 140 to 149.5. 15-8 UNDER in all tournament games.

Kentucky Wildcats:  J. Robinson (G) Out - Undisclosed. K. Kriisa (G) Out - Foot.

Tennessee Volunteers:  J. Estrella (F) Out - Foot.

“Who knows where we're going to go from here, but this group, what a blessing to be around this group.” - Mark Pope after his team’s win against Illinois in the 2nd round of the NCAA tournament. 

“It's just a blessing. I want to shout out my teammates as well. They're always setting good screens for me and passing the ball on the money for me. So without them, I wouldn't be making the shots.” - Chaz Lanier after their win against UCLA in the 2nd round of the NCAA Tournament. 

L. Butler 

A. Carr 

O. Oweh 

J. Robinson 

A. Williams

C. Lanier 

J. Mashack 

I. Milicic 

F. Okpara 

Z. Zeigler

PPG: O. Oweh (16.2)

APG: L. Butler (4.3)

Reb/G: A. Williams (8.5)

PPG: C. Lanier (17.7)

APG: Z. Zeigler (7.3)

Reb/G: I. Milicic (6.9)

Coaches:

Kentucky Wildcats: Mark Pope (1st season)

Tennessee Volunteers: Rick Barnes (10th season)