by James Q
Tuesday, Sep 28, 2021Kansas City Chiefs vs Philadelphia Eagles Preview and Picks - 10/03/2021
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET, Sunday, October 3rd, 2021
Venue: Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia Pennsylvania
Where to Watch: CBS
Opening NFL Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Spread: Chiefs -7.5; : O/U 54.5
BetMGM: Spread: Chiefs -7.5; O/U 54.5
Caesars: Spread: Chiefs -7; O/U 54.5
Season Record
Chiefs: 1-2 (last place AFC West)
Eagles: 1-2 (third place NFC East)
These two teams have identical records, but they aren’t close to identical. The Chiefs will be favored in most any matchup against most any team regardless of record right now. The Chiefs are a great team. The Eagles will be underdogs in all contests outside of the New York Giants. The Eagles are a bad team. The Dallas Cowboys crushed the Eagles on Monday Night Football at AT&T Stadium in Arlington Texas. The Los Angeles Chargers beat the Chiefs at SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles, in an excited atmosphere that felt like the playoffs. The Chiefs and Eagles have the same record but aren’t similar in any other way.
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Chiefs vs Eagles Preview and Analysis
Recent Form
The Kansas City Chiefs have had a rough start to the season. The two-time AFC Champions over the last two years with a Super Bowl win and a Super Bowl loss on the resume. Kansas City’s games over the first 3 weeks of NFL action have been close every time… revealing that Patrick Mahomes and the offense still has every bit of talent, but the defense is lacking something. They opened with a win over the Cleveland Browns (who are good) 33-29, followed with a loss to the Baltimore Ravens (who are really good) 36-35 (1 point!), and finished with a loss to the Los Angeles Chargers (who are good and having a coming out party) 30-24. The Chiefs will right the ship, they will make the playoffs, they will scare or beat everyone they play from here on in.
The Philadelphia Eagles are a joke. The NFC East has been the worst division in NFL football for several seasons in a row. It’s the only division where the division winner could have a losing record and no one would be surprised. The Eagles opened the season by blowing out the atrocious Atlanta Falcons (who are also now 1-2 , with their only win a close on to the NY Giants) 32-6. Then a loss to the San Francisco 49ers, who are experiencing quarterback uncertainty, 17-11. Then a loss to the Division rival Dallas Cowboys 41-21.
Offensive Analysis
The Kansas City Chiefs are 1-2 on the season so far, but ranked 6th in yards per game 413 and 5th in ppg 30.7. Patrick Mahomes has 9 passing TDs with 940 total passing yards, his Achilles heel has been 3 interceptions. Travis Kelce is still the best TE in the league with 289 yards receiving and 3 TD… 96.3 YPG is TE all-star numbers. Clyde Edwards-Helaire is rushing for 63 yards per game, they will need a little more from him to open the field for Patrick Mahomes.
The Eagles are 16th in yards per game 376.3, 23rd in points per game 21.3. QB Jalen Hurts is struggling to lead a team without weapons… Jalen has more rushing yards than his leading running back Miles Sanders. Jalen’s leading receiver Quez Watkins has zero touchdowns. Jalen’s offensive line is in the witness protection program having allowed 5 sacks and countless broken plays because of pressure.
Defensive Analysis
KC has a real problem on defense. They are 30th in giving up yards 430 YPG, LAST (32nd) in giving up points 31.7. Yes, they have played three fantastic offenses in a row, three offenses that offer something unique to try and stop. Cleveland has weapons everywhere, Baltimore has a quarterback that can pull cornerbacks and safeties off coverage to defend against his otherworldly running ability, and the Chargers have a young quarterback on track to be top 3 sooner than you think. The collapse of the defensive unit has been the entire problem for the Chiefs. The eye test says they will be fine against bad teams and the offense will give them a chance to win every game… but there are no Super Bowls in the near future if they can’t improve on the numbers so far.
Philly has the 7th ranked defense in allowing yards per game 315.3 and 10th in allowing points 21.3. They have looked tough. Of course the quarterbacks they have faced so far are Matt Ryan (due to retire), Jimmy Garappolo (due to be replaced), and Dak Prescott ( Returned form missing a full year of games at the start of September)... they haven’t faced Patrick Mahomes. MVP Patrick Mahomes. Super Bowl winner Patrick Mahomes. Angry at how the season is going Patrick Mahomes.
Chiefs vs Eagles Prediction
Our prediction for Sunday, October 3rd is…. Chiefs 35 - Eagles 13
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NFL Betting Trends
The Chiefs are 8-4 ATS after division games over the last three seasons.
The Eagles are 8-1 ATS as a home underdog of 7.5 to 10 points since 1993
The Eagles are 2-4 ATS over the last 3 season when total is set higher than 49.5
Key Injuries
Chiefs: Chris Jones DT Questionable * Frank Clark DE Questionable
Eagles: Isaac Seumalo G Out for season * K’Von Wallace S (separated shoulder) 3-6 weeks out.
Players to Watch
Chiefs: Patrick Mahomes. He is going to unload his frustrations on the Eagles. Since the eagles won’t be scoring back it will become a fireworks show.
Eagles: Jalen Hurts. It will be all over for this kid soon. He played at Alabama and got usurped by Tua Tagliova. He transferred to Texas A&M to get pro attention and played great… he fell to the second round in the draft. He has been treated like the problem in multiple spots when he clearly hasn’t been. He needs big Sunday’s to catch any other team’s attention for that coveted backup spot after the Eagles dump him.
Starting Lineups
Chiefs: QB Patrick Mahomes, RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire, WR Tyreek Hill, WR Mecole Hardman, WR Demarcus Robinson, TE Travis Kelce, LT Michael Burton, LG Joe Thuney, C Creed Humphrey, RG Trey Smith, RT Lucas Niang
Eagles: QB Jalen Hurts, RB Miles Sanders, WR DeVonta Smith, WR Jalen Reagor, TE Dallas Goedert, LT Jordan Mailata, LG Nate Herbig, C Jason Kelce, RG Landon Dickerson, RT Lane Johnson
Statistical Leaders
Chiefs:
Passing: Patrick Mahomes 940 yards
Rushing: C Edwards-Helaire 189 yards
Receiving: Travis Kelce 289 yards
Tackles: Nick Bolton 23
Interceptions: Tyrann Mathieu 2
Eagles:
Passing: Jalen Hurts 780 yards
Rushing: Jalen Hurts 179 yards
Receiving: Quex Watkins 186 yards
Tackles: Alex Singleton 29
Coaches:
Chiefs: Andy Reid, went to the hospital after the last game for dehydration... glug, glug.
Eagles: Nick Sirianni, it’s not going well yet.
Weather Forecast
Mostly Cloudy. 74* is the high. Humidity 63%.
James Q
About the Author:
James Q. has been involved with sports and gambling his entire life. A former division 1 scholarship basketball player, James understands sports (and especially basketball) inside-and-out. Following his basketball playing days, James parlayed his gambling skills into a semi-pro poker career. James resides in Los Angeles, and especially loves the Los Angeles Clippers, Los Angeles Rams, and Los Angeles Dodgers. And when he isn't betting on sports (and writing about it), James can be found performing stand-up comedy on the Sunset Strip.
