Kansas City Chiefs vs Buffalo Bills Prediction, Preview and Odds - 01/21/2024

Game Time: 6:30 pm ET, Sunday, January 21, 2024

Venue:  Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, NY

Where to Watch:  CBS

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  Chiefs +2.5, Bills -2.5; Over/Under:  46.5 points

Bet365:  Point Spread:  Chiefs +2.5, Bills -2.5; Over/Under:  46 points

BetMGM:  Point Spread:  Chiefs +2.5, Bills -2.5; Over/Under:  46 points

Kansas City Chiefs:  11-6 (1st place, AFC West)

Buffalo Bills:  11-6 (1st place, AFC East)

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Kansas City Chiefs:  won their last game at home against the Miami Dolphins 26-7.

Buffalo Bills:  won their last game at home against the Pittsburgh Steelers 31-17.

The Chiefs are entering this game with an 11-6 record overall and they have a 4-2 record in their divisional games too. They are 4-4 in their home games, 6-2 in their road games, and they are also 1-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be on the road for this game. They won their last game against the Miami Dolphins 26-7 in the AFC Wild Card Round of the NFL playoffs. Patrick Mahomes was the starting QB and he completed 23/41 passes for 262 passing yards, 1 touchdown, and 0 interceptions. Isiah Pacheco led the team in rushing yards with 89 and 1 TD. Rashee Rice led the receivers with 130 receiving yards on 8 receptions and 1 TD. Nick Bolton led the defense in that game with 5 solo tackles and 5 assisted tackles while George Karlaftis led the defense in sacks with 1.5. Mike Edwards came away with the only interception for them in that game.

 

 

 

The Bills are entering this game with an 11-6 record overall and they have a 4-2 record in their divisional games too. They are 7-1 in their home games, 4-4 in their road games, and they are also 0-1 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at home for this game. They won their last game against the Pittsburgh Steelers 31-17 in the AFC Wild Card Round of the NFL playoffs. Josh Allen was the starting QB and he completed 21/30 passes for 203 passing yards, 3 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. James Cook led the team in rushing yards with 79. Dalton Kincaid led the receivers with 59 receiving yards on 3 receptions and 1 TD. A.J. Klein led the defense in that game with 7 solo tackles and 4 assisted tackles while Greg Rousseau led the defense in sacks with 1. Kaiir Elam came away with the only interception for them in that game.

The current betting odds have the Bills listed as a 2.5 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Bills have looked great in their games this season with their 11-6 record overall which won the AFC East. They had a really rough start to the season and playoffs were even looking bleak at one point, but they have turned things around over the last few weeks and have easily been the hottest team in the NFL lately. They have been playing playoff football since November as they needed to run the table and now they have the home advantage here against a team they beat on the road earlier this season. The Bills have also looked great in their home games all season with their 7-1 home record and they have looked unstoppable lately. Meanwhile, the Chiefs have also looked good this season with their 11-6 record overall which won the AFC West and even though they have looked a lot better in their games lately, they have still been a struggling team this season. They have had the opposite season as the Bills since the Chiefs had a very nice 1st half of the season but things began to fall apart in the 2nd half. Now the Chiefs have looked a lot better over the last few weeks, even beating the Dolphins convincingly in the Wild Card Round, but the Bills have been rolling for over 2 months now and they have too much momentum coming into this one. The best way to place a bet here is on the Bills to cover the spread in this game. 

Chiefs Bills Prediction:  Our NFL Pick for Sunday, January 21, 2024 (6:30 pm ET start time) is Bills 24 Chiefs 17.

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Kansas City Chiefs: 12-5 ATS in games where the line is +3 to -3. 6-0 ATS after allowing 9 points or less last game. 12-7 ATS after 3 or more consecutive wins. 13-5 UNDER in all games. 6-0 UNDER in games where the line is +3 to -3. 8-3 UNDER after 1 or more consecutive wins.

Buffalo Bills: 3-6 ATS after allowing 17 points or less in 2 straight games. 2-7 ATS after 6 or more consecutive wins. 10-5 UNDER in games where the line is +3 to -3. 23-14 UNDER in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points. 

Kansas City Chiefs:  W. Morris (OL) Ques Sun - Concussion. J. Ross (WR) Ques Sun - Hamstring. K. Toney (WR) Ques Sun - Hip. N. Remigio (WR) Out indefinitely - Foot. D. Smith (OT) Out indefinitely - Neck. J. McKinnon (RB) Out indefinitely - Groin. B. Cook (S) Out indefinitely - Ankle. S. Moore (WR) Out indefinitely - Knee. B. Thompson (DE) Out indefinitely - Hamstring. P. Wanogho (OT) Out indefinitely - Quadricep. J. Fortson (TE) I-R - Shoulder. N. Johnson (S) I-R - Knee.

Buffalo Bills:  T. Bernard (LB) Ques Sun - Lower Body. R. Douglas (CB) Ques Sun - Knee. T. Rapp (S) Ques Sun - Calf. T. Dodson (LB) Ques Sun - Shoulder. G. Davis (WR) Ques Sun - Knee. J. Shorter (WR) I-R - Hamstring. J. Phillips (DT) Out indefinitely - Wrist. D. Harris (RB) Out indefinitely - Neck. M. Milano (LB) I-R - Leg. T. White (CB) I-R - Achilles. T. Doyle (OT) I-R - Knee. Z. Davidson (TE) I-R - Knee. N. Hines (RB) I-R - Knee.

“Butker was phenomenal. That was like kicking a block of ice.” - Andy Reid on Harrison Butker after his team’s win against the Dolphins in their last game. 

“People keep saying that’s what we wanted. We had no call in that. We would have played yesterday, would have played Saturday, would have played Friday, it wouldn’t have mattered. We would have come out here and played when we were told to play.” - Josh Allen after their win against the Steelers in their last game. 

WR Watson, Justin

WR Valdes-Scantling, Marquez 

WR Rice, Rashee 

TE Kelce, Travis 

QB Mahomes, Patrick 

RB Pacheco, Isiah

WR Diggs, Stefon 

WR Davis, Gabe 

WR Shakir, Khalil  

TE Kincaid, Dalton  

QB Allen, Josh 

RB Cook, James 

FB Gilliam, Reggie

Passing: P. Mahomes (4183)

Rushing: I. Pacheco (935)

Receiving: T. Kelce (984)

Touchdowns: I. Pacheco (9)

Passing: J. Allen (4306)

Rushing: J. Cook (1122)

Receiving: S. Diggs (1183)

Touchdowns: J. Allen (15)

Coaches:

Kansas City Chiefs: Andy Reid (11th season)

Buffalo Bills: Sean McDermott (7th season)