by Rod Pearson
Friday, Sep 20, 2024
Game Time: 7:30 pm ET, Monday, September 23, 2024
Venue: Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, NY
Where to Watch: ESPN
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Point Spread: Jaguars +5, Bills -5; Over/Under: 45.5 points
Bet365: Point Spread: Jaguars +5, Bills -5; Over/Under: 45.5 points
BetMGM: Point Spread: Jaguars +5.5, Bills -5.5; Over/Under: 45.5 points
Season Record
Jacksonville Jaguars: 0-2 (4th place, AFC South)
Buffalo Bills: 2-0 (1st place, AFC East)
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Jacksonville Jaguars: lost their last game at home against the Cleveland Browns 18-13.
Buffalo Bills: won their last game on the road against the Miami Dolphins 31-10.
Jacksonville Jaguars vs Buffalo Bills Preview and Analysis
The Jaguars are entering this game with a 0-2 record overall and they have a 0-0 record in their divisional games too. They are 0-1 in their home games, 0-1 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be on the road for this game. They lost their last game against the Cleveland Browns 18-13. Trevor Lawrence was the starting QB and he completed 14/30 passes for 220 passing yards, 0 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. Travis Etienne Jr. led the team in rushing yards with 52 and 1 TD. Brian Thomas Jr. led the receivers with 94 receiving yards on 2 receptions. Montaric Brown led the defense in that game with 11 solo tackles and 0 assisted tackles while Josh Hines-Allen and Foyesade Oluokun each led the defense in sacks with 1. No one on the defense came away with an interception for them in that one.
The Bills are entering this game with a 2-0 record overall and they have a 1-0 record in their divisional games too. They are 1-0 in their home games, 1-0 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at home for this game. They won their last game against the Miami Dolphins 31-10. Josh Allen was the starting QB and he completed 13/19 passes for 139 passing yards, 1 touchdown, and 0 interceptions. James Cook led the team in rushing yards with 78 and 2 TDs. Khalil Shakir led the receivers with 54 receiving yards on 5 receptions. Damar Hamlin led the defense in that game with 8 solo tackles and 2 assisted tackles while Ed Oliver and Von Miller each led the defense in sacks with 1. Ja'Marcus Ingram led the defense with 2 interceptions while Christian Benford came away with 1 interception for them in that one.
Jaguars vs Bills Prediction
The current betting odds have the Bills listed as a 5 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Bills have looked really good in their games this season with their 2-0 record overall. They won their season opener at home against the Cardinals in a game they started slow in, and now they are coming off a big road win against the Dolphins last week. They also played on Thursday night so they have had some extra rest for this game. Meanwhile, the Jaguars have looked terrible in their games this season with their 0-2 record overall. They opened the season with a solid performance, losing on the road to the Dolphins 20-17 but putting up a good fight in that game. They came out strong in the 1st half and were in control of that game, but they stalled in the 2nd half with their offense and that carried over into their home opener last week, losing to the Browns 18-13. The Jaguars just haven't looked right on offense in their 2 games and this game isn't going to be any easier on the road in Buffalo against this new-look Bills team. The Bills are rolling right now on both offense and defense while the Jaguars are still trying to figure things out this year and get into a rhythm on the field, something they haven't really been able to find. The best way to place a bet here is on the Bills to cover the spread in this game.
Jaguars Bills Prediction: Our NFL Pick for Monday, September 23, 2024 (7:30 pm ET start time) is Bills 31 Jaguars 21.
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NFL Betting Trends
Jacksonville Jaguars: 12-7 ATS in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points. 3-0 ATS against AFC East division opponents. 8-4 OVER as a road underdog. 8-2 OVER as a road underdog of 7 points or less. 6-1 OVER in games played on turf.
Buffalo Bills: 4-8 ATS after playing a division game. 3-6 ATS off a win against a division rival. 6-2 OVER as a home favorite of 7 points or less. 8-5 OVER after allowing 14 points or less last game.
Key Injuries
Jacksonville Jaguars: E. Engram (TE) Injured - Hamstring. D. Savage (SAF) Injured - Quadricep. T. Bigsby (RB) Injured - Shoulder.
Buffalo Bills: D. Smoot (DE) Injured - Toe. M. Trubisky (QB) Injured - Knee. J. Allen (QB) Injured - Left Hand. T. Johnson (CB) Injured - Forearm. T. Bernard (LB) Injured - Pectoral. Q. Morris (TE) Injured - Shoulder. T. Johnson (RB) Injured - Knee. C. Toohill (DE) Injured - Knee. J. Solomon (DE) Injured - Oblique.
Notable Quotes
“Right now, we’ve just got to stop kind of the nonsense that we’re creating for ourselves.” - Doug Pederson after his team’s loss against the Browns in their last game.
“Next man up. The guys did a great job. These guys work hard. Good things happen when you work hard, and sometimes the ball finds you like that.” - Sean McDermott after his team’s win against the Dolphins in their last game.
Starting Lineups
Jacksonville Jaguars
WR Davis, Gabe
WR Thomas Jr., Brian
WR Kirk, Christian
TE Engram, Evan
QB Lawrence, Trevor
RB Etienne Jr., Travis
Buffalo Bills
WR Coleman, Keon
WR Hollins, Mack
WR Shakir, Khalil
TE Kincaid, Dalton
QB Allen, Josh
RB Cook, James
FB Gilliam, Reggie
Statistical Leaders
Jacksonville Jaguars
Passing: T. Lawrence (382)
Rushing: T. Etienne (96)
Receiving: B. Thomas (141)
Touchdowns: T. Etienne (2)
Buffalo Bills
Passing: J. Allen (371)
Rushing: J. Cook (149)
Receiving: K. Shakir (96)
Touchdowns: J. Cook (3)
Coaches:
Jacksonville Jaguars: Doug Pederson (3rd season)
Buffalo Bills: Sean McDermott (8th season)
Rod Pearson
About the Author:
Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life. He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years. In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective. Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.
