Italy Serie A Futures (2023/24 Season Updated)

The Winter transfer window is approaching in January which also marks the midway point in the season for Serie A. This is the time when teams take a real good look at themselves and decide whether they need to buy players to improve and make a push for top of the table or if it is better to sell players and accept their spot in the middle of the pack. Either way, the 2nd half of the season can look very different than the 1st half so now it is time to see which teams are shaping up to be real title contenders and which ones are just pretenders.

Inter Milan -400: Inter Milan is coming into the 2nd half of the season as the favorite to win the title according to the oddsmakers. They are currently sitting in 1st place in the Serie A table with 45 points through 18 matches this season. They have the best defense in the league right now with only 8 goals allowed in their 18 matches and their attack also leads the league with 42 goals. They had a very good season last year as they finished in 3rd place in the table and also made a very deep run in Champions League, appearing in the final against Man City. Inter Milan clearly has the best squad in Italy right now and they have been a dominant force in the league all season, but they also have just a 2 point lead over the 2nd place team and their season is going to get a lot tougher as it goes on. Inter is definitely focused on winning the league title this season but after going to the final last year, winning Champions League and having success in that competition will also be a focus for them. Inter actually lost quite a bit of their depth in the summer transfer window though and they are going to need more depth if they want to make a deep run in UCL while also competing for the Serie A Title. Inter is clearly one of the best teams in Italy this year but with Champions League also on their plate, this is a ridiculous price for them when they do not even have a large lead in the table and there is also a very strong challenger right on their tail. There is no value in Inter Milan to win the title at this price. 

Juventus +333: Juventus is coming into the 2nd half of the season as the next team on the list to win the title according to the oddsmakers. Juventus is currently sitting in 2nd place in the Serie A table with 43 points through 18 matches this season. They also have a very good defense that is one of the best in the league as they have allowed just 11 goals in their 18 matches this year, ranking 2nd in Serie A behind Inter Milan. Their attack has not been as good but they still rank in the top 6 of Serie A with 27 goals scored this season. Juventus was a very interesting team last season as they finished in 7th place in the table but were also given a 10 point deduction which would have had them in 3rd place for points, tied with Inter Milan. They did finish in a Conference League spot but part of their punishment included a ban from European competition this season. It seemed harsh at the time, but this ban has been a blessing in disguise as they do not have any extra competitions to play in this year and can now focus solely on winning the Serie A Title which is something they have not in years now. Juventus also has plans to make a splash in the winter transfer window and bring in some players to boost their attack which is much needed. With most of the distractions out of the way now and plans to improve the team in January, Juventus should be the favorite to win the title this year considering the talent in their squad as well as the lack of extra competitions late in the season. There is a lot of value in Juventus winning the title this season at this price. 

AC Milan +2500: AC Milan is coming into the 2nd half of the season as the next team on the list to win the title according to the oddsmakers. AC Milan is currently sitting in 3rd place in the Serie A table with 36 points from 18 matches this season. AC Milan is a team that has struggled to keep up in the title race the last few years. They have 1 Title over the last 5 years and they are usually a team that has been finishing in the top 4, but their defense continues to be a problem area that has led to some bad results. Their potent attack has been keeping them above water but they need to make some real improvements to their defense before they can be considered as a title contender. Last season, the Serie A Title race got away from everyone very quickly as Napoli was so dominant and led the whole season with a large margin. AC Milan is already 9 points behind the leaders and they also managed to salvage their year in Europe by dropping down to Europa League so they are going to have a winnable competition that will be distracting them late in the season. AC Milan is not one of the top teams in Italy right now and the way that it looks, it is going to be a 2 horse race for the title this season as the top 2 continue to pull away from everyone else. AC Milan has no value at this price to win the Serie A Title this season. 

Fiorentina +15000: Fiorentina is coming into the 2nd half of the season as the next team on the list to win the title according to the oddsmakers. Fiorentina is currently sitting in 4th place in the Serie A table with 33 points through 18 matches this season. They are already 12 points behind the leaders and they have been a team that has struggled to even make it into the top 4 in recent years. They deserve an honorable mention here since they have added some very good talent to improve their squad this season, but they do not have a real chance at winning the title. Fiorentina also went to the finals of the Conference League last season, losing in the finals, but they are once again in the competition and will be focused on winning that. Fiorentina is more likely to finish outside of the top 4 come the end of the season than winning the title. There is no value in Fiorentina at this price.

According to the books, the Serie A Title race has pretty much been settled with Inter Milan being the huge -400 favorite, but in reality, Juventus has just as good a chance as Inter Milan does to win the title this season. Juventus has a quality squad with a defense that can rival the current league leaders and they also have the added bonus of no extra matches and competitions to worry about while Inter Milan will be looking to make another deep run in Champions League which will end up stretching their squad thin by the end of the season. Juventus is focused on winning the Serie A Title this season after falling out of favor the last few years and especially after the punishments they received from the federation last season which kept them from having a successful season being in Europe this year as well. All the value is with Juventus at this price as this title race is far from over in Italy. Juventus to win the title at +333 has the best value here.