by Team Del Genio
Wednesday, Nov 29, 2023The Minnesota Vikings had been one of the hottest teams in the NFL in the middle of the season going into their clash with the Chicago Bears for Monday Night Football. They had won five games in a row before their narrow 21-20 loss at Denver last week. The Bears had lost three of their last four games and come into this game trailing the Vikings by three games in the NFC North standings. Yet the oddsmakers installed Minnesota as only a field goal or so favorite in this game despite this game being played at the Vikings’ U.S. Bank Stadium. The Vikings beat the Bears last month by a 19-13 score in the first game between these teams at Soldier Field. The oddsmakers were communicating that if these two teams would play on a neutral field, the point spread difference would be close to a pick ‘em after eliminating the three or so points for home-field advantage.
Even when these teams played a month ago, the oddsmakers installed Minnesota as a three-point road favorite, despite a 1-4 record at the time. The Vikings’ victory in that game began their recent five-game winning streak. It was a remarkable point spread with the oddsmakers seeing something the betting public was not, and it was one of the primary reasons we tapped Chicago as our NFC Game of the Month in that game. The Bears pulled the upset, 12-9, to redeem our support.
We saw a few intriguing things with Chicago, and it started with the play of Justin Fields who is quietly making a strong statement that he should be a starting quarterback in the league. In his last four games (including the game against Minnesota when he got knocked out of the game with a hand injury that kept him out for four games) before that Monday Night game, Fields had completed 65 of 97 passes for a 67.0% completion percentage. He had nine touchdown passes during that span with only two interceptions. He had passed for 844 yards in those four games with an 8.7 yards per attempt. He had added another 232 yards with a 5.7 yards per carry when running the ball on an average of ten times per game in those four games. He was playing better than the Vikings’ Josh Dobbs.
The Bears had a 1-4 record in games decided by one possession including their 31-26 loss on the road at Detroit last week in a game they should have won. Chicago won the first down battle by a 25-23 margin, and they were close to even in yardage (334-338) despite the game being played at Ford Field. They forced four turnovers. The Bears had covered the point spread in four of their last six games after the first month of the season. They were an underrated team.
While Chicago won the game, their offense sputtered. The Bears had only 317 yards of offense. They settled for four field goals with three drives stalling inside the Vikings 22-yard line. Fields’ stat line was okay as he completed 27 of 37 passes for 217 yards with no touchdowns and no interceptions. He ran the ball another 12 times for 59 yards. Yet he was responsible for both of Chicago’s lost fumbles, with one of them his fault for not protecting himself as a runner.
Fields numbers in his last five games still look pretty good. He has completed 92 of 134 passes for a 68.6% completion percentage. He had passed for 1061 yards in those five games with a 7.9 yards per attempt. He has nine touchdown passes during that span with only two interceptions. He has added another 291 yards with a 5.5 yards per carry when running the ball on an average of ten times per game in those five games.
Yet it appears the coaching staff has made the decision that Fields cannot be trusted to make decisions with the football down the field. Facing the Vikings’ defensive coordinator Brian Flores means dealing with the most blitz-dependent defense in the league. In what became a painful-to-watch display, Chicago offensive coordinator Luke Getsy continually dialed up bubble screen after bubble screen to help Fields get the ball out quickly in the face of the potential blitz. Unfortunately for the Bears offense, this tactic became predictable very quickly yet Getsy rarely changed things up.
A critic could make the case that Getsy may not be one of the best offensive coordinators in the NFL, yet every offensive coordinator is familiar with a vertical passing game. Perhaps he was directed by head coach Matt Eberflus, but it was clear that Getsy had limited options that he was comfortable with regarding how Fields could handle the blitz. Some of his rushing numbers may be the result of bailing on plays too quickly because he is not processing third or even second reads in the passing game. His early season struggles might be the result of his failure to execute his second or third reads in the passing game. His “fantasy” numbers have improved only because he is giving up on plays to move the ball with his legs again.
So, thankfully, the Bears pulled off the victory and our read on the oddsmakers line was correct. Yet it is hard to be optimistic about the future for Fields, at least with Chicago. With the Bears owning Carolina’s first-round pick draft pick, Chicago is poised to have two top-ten draft picks in the spring with that Panthers selection perhaps the prized number one pick in the draft. It is hard to imagine that the Bears would forego the opportunity to choose their favorite quarterback in the college draft pool and stick with a quarterback in Fields who they did not trust to throw the ball downfield with against the Vikings.
Chicago could always draft a quarterback while allowing Fields to compete for the starting job. He still shows flashes of brilliance. However, the internal momentum to allow their new rookie quarterback to take the job and run with it will likely be overwhelming, and Fields’ stock will only continue to fall. Trading Fields away sooner rather than later would probably bring back the most value, given how these events are likely to shake out.
Good luck - TDG.
Even when these teams played a month ago, the oddsmakers installed Minnesota as a three-point road favorite, despite a 1-4 record at the time. The Vikings’ victory in that game began their recent five-game winning streak. It was a remarkable point spread with the oddsmakers seeing something the betting public was not, and it was one of the primary reasons we tapped Chicago as our NFC Game of the Month in that game. The Bears pulled the upset, 12-9, to redeem our support.
We saw a few intriguing things with Chicago, and it started with the play of Justin Fields who is quietly making a strong statement that he should be a starting quarterback in the league. In his last four games (including the game against Minnesota when he got knocked out of the game with a hand injury that kept him out for four games) before that Monday Night game, Fields had completed 65 of 97 passes for a 67.0% completion percentage. He had nine touchdown passes during that span with only two interceptions. He had passed for 844 yards in those four games with an 8.7 yards per attempt. He had added another 232 yards with a 5.7 yards per carry when running the ball on an average of ten times per game in those four games. He was playing better than the Vikings’ Josh Dobbs.
The Bears had a 1-4 record in games decided by one possession including their 31-26 loss on the road at Detroit last week in a game they should have won. Chicago won the first down battle by a 25-23 margin, and they were close to even in yardage (334-338) despite the game being played at Ford Field. They forced four turnovers. The Bears had covered the point spread in four of their last six games after the first month of the season. They were an underrated team.
While Chicago won the game, their offense sputtered. The Bears had only 317 yards of offense. They settled for four field goals with three drives stalling inside the Vikings 22-yard line. Fields’ stat line was okay as he completed 27 of 37 passes for 217 yards with no touchdowns and no interceptions. He ran the ball another 12 times for 59 yards. Yet he was responsible for both of Chicago’s lost fumbles, with one of them his fault for not protecting himself as a runner.
Fields numbers in his last five games still look pretty good. He has completed 92 of 134 passes for a 68.6% completion percentage. He had passed for 1061 yards in those five games with a 7.9 yards per attempt. He has nine touchdown passes during that span with only two interceptions. He has added another 291 yards with a 5.5 yards per carry when running the ball on an average of ten times per game in those five games.
Yet it appears the coaching staff has made the decision that Fields cannot be trusted to make decisions with the football down the field. Facing the Vikings’ defensive coordinator Brian Flores means dealing with the most blitz-dependent defense in the league. In what became a painful-to-watch display, Chicago offensive coordinator Luke Getsy continually dialed up bubble screen after bubble screen to help Fields get the ball out quickly in the face of the potential blitz. Unfortunately for the Bears offense, this tactic became predictable very quickly yet Getsy rarely changed things up.
A critic could make the case that Getsy may not be one of the best offensive coordinators in the NFL, yet every offensive coordinator is familiar with a vertical passing game. Perhaps he was directed by head coach Matt Eberflus, but it was clear that Getsy had limited options that he was comfortable with regarding how Fields could handle the blitz. Some of his rushing numbers may be the result of bailing on plays too quickly because he is not processing third or even second reads in the passing game. His early season struggles might be the result of his failure to execute his second or third reads in the passing game. His “fantasy” numbers have improved only because he is giving up on plays to move the ball with his legs again.
So, thankfully, the Bears pulled off the victory and our read on the oddsmakers line was correct. Yet it is hard to be optimistic about the future for Fields, at least with Chicago. With the Bears owning Carolina’s first-round pick draft pick, Chicago is poised to have two top-ten draft picks in the spring with that Panthers selection perhaps the prized number one pick in the draft. It is hard to imagine that the Bears would forego the opportunity to choose their favorite quarterback in the college draft pool and stick with a quarterback in Fields who they did not trust to throw the ball downfield with against the Vikings.
Chicago could always draft a quarterback while allowing Fields to compete for the starting job. He still shows flashes of brilliance. However, the internal momentum to allow their new rookie quarterback to take the job and run with it will likely be overwhelming, and Fields’ stock will only continue to fall. Trading Fields away sooner rather than later would probably bring back the most value, given how these events are likely to shake out.
Good luck - TDG.
