by Chuck Sommers
Sunday, Jan 16, 2022
Time: 2 p.m. ET
Venue: Williams Arena, Minneapolis, MN
Where to watch: BTN
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Iowa -5.5
BetMGM: NL
Caesars: Iowa -6
Season record
Iowa: 12-4 (2-3 Big Ten)
Minnesota: 10-4 (1-4 Big Ten)
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Iowa - Minnesota preview, analysis and prediction
This hasn’t been the greatest run for the Minnesota Golden Gophers over the past few games, and it’s been such a slide that you should put all attention on the Iowa Hawkeyes on Sunday.
The Hawkeyes have reeled off five wins in their last six games after losing three very tough games. The level of competition hasn’t been great in this stretch, but Iowa has been able to at least get back on track to the point of looking like a respectable Big Ten foe despite the 2-3 start in conference play.
Iowa rebounded from its 9-point loss to the scorching Wisconsin Badgers and won 83-74 against the Indiana Hoosiers at home. In a game where Iowa shot 44.4 percent and gave up 51 percent shooting to the Hoosiers, it was Kris Murray providing a gigantic spark off the bench with 29 points in 29 minutes while shooting 12 of 18 from the floor.
That overcame what was an otherwise tough night for leading scorer Keegan Murray, who finished with 12 points and nine rebounds but had four fouls, finishing with just 22 minutes.
Iowa hits the road for Sunday’s matchup where it’s been a struggle in both the books and straight up. The Hawkeyes are just 14-12 against the spread in their past 26 road games and even 11-15 straight up. The big saving grace may be the fact Iowa is 28-19 against conference opponents in the past three seasons.
What’s going to make Iowa dangerous this season is the ability to score. Defensively, they’re going to give up a lot, as evidence of that loss to Wisconsin. But the Hawkeyes right now are still averaging close to 87 points per game. Iowa is 4-0 against the spread this season and 8-2 overall in its last 10 when it scores 75 points or more during five consecutive games.
Going against a Minnesota team that has largely relied on defense, that doesn’t bode well for a game in which the Gophers need to be their best when it comes to scoring. They’ve been held below 70 points during all games of their three-game losing streak.
Minnesota is 4-12 against the spread in their last 16 when they have consecutive games of committing just eight turnovers or less. The Gophers have been really good at home, going 29-12 in their last 41, and while 5-2 at home this season, they’re just 2-5 against the spread.
I don’t think we’re at the point where we can crown Iowa as a sleeper in the Big Ten, but these are the kinds of games that the Hawkeyes need to win in both facets before the public and the betting circles can take them seriously. Iowa by 14
Betting trends
The home team is 7-1 against the spread in the last eight meetings.
The favorite is 5-2 ATS in the last seven.
The over is 3-0-1 in Iowa's last four following a straight-up win.
Minnesota is 0-4-1 ATS in its last five home games.
The under is 7-1 in Minnesota's last eight against a team with a losing record on the road.
Projected starting lineup
Iowa:
PG: Joe Toussaint
SG: Jordan Bohannon
SF: Keegan Murray
PF: Filip Rebraca
C: Patrick McCaffery
SF: Keegan Murray
PF: Filip Rebraca
C: Patrick McCaffery
Minnesota:
PG: E.J. Stephens
SG: Payton Willis
SF: Luke Loewe
PF: Jamison Battle
C: Eric Curry
SF: Luke Loewe
PF: Jamison Battle
C: Eric Curry
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Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
