by Chuck Sommers
Wednesday, Sep 29, 2021
Game time: 1 p.m. ET, Oct. 3, 2021
Venue: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami, FL
Where to watch: CBS
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Dolphins -2; O/U 42.5; Dolphins -130, Colts +110
BetMGM: Dolphins -2; O/U 43; Dolphins -125, Colts +105
Caesars: Dolphins -1.5; O/U 43; Dolphins -130, Colts +110
Season record
Colts: 0-3
Dolphins: 1-2
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Colts - Dolphins preview and analysis
Recent form
Colts: lost 25-16 at Titans in Week 3
Dolphins: lost 31-28 (OT) at Raiders in Week 3
A valiant effort from the Miami Dolphins last week went all for nothing, but expect that effort to carry over Sunday when they return home to face the winless Indianapolis Colts.
It's tough sledding for the Dolphins right now, sitting 1-2 without starting quarterback Tua Tagovailoa (fractured ribs) at the helm. Veteran quarterback Jacoby Brissett got the start in Miami's 31-28 overtime loss to the Las Vegas Raiders at Allegiant Stadium in Week 3.
Brissett, the former Colts starter, went 32 of 49 for 215 yards, but rallied Miami from 11 points down in the fourth quarter to send it into overtime. He scored a touchdown on 4th and goal with two seconds left, then threw the game-tying two-point conversion to Will Fuller.
That wasn't all. After the Raiders took a three-point lead in overtime, Miami faced a 4th and 20 from its own 10-yard line. Brissett hit tight end Mike Gesiciki for 27 yards to keep the drive alive and eventually lead to the tying field goal.
There's many reasons for the Dolphins to feel good about last week. Running back Myles Gaskin ran for a tough 65 yards, while receivers Jaylen Waddle (12 catches, 58 yards) and DeVante Parker (4 catches, 42 yards) combined for 100 yards.
After a strong showing for half of the game last Sunday, the Dolphins defense likely wants to get back at it against a Colts team that's having a tough time breaking through. The Colts lost their third straight to open the season with a nine-point loss to the division rival Tennessee Titans.
The rocky start hasn't been all on Carson Wentz. The quarterback acquired from the Philadelphia Eagles in the offseason hasn't thrown an interception in two of three games so far; he had 194 yards against the Titans, but it took a 19 of 37 afternoon to get there. The last time Wentz faced Miami, however, he threw for 310 yards and three touchdowns.
That was back in 2019, though, before injuries completely derailed his Philadelphia tenure.
Lead running back Jonathan Taylor had only 10 carries for 64 yards, which was a season high.
This Colts defense played the Los Angeles Rams tough at home two weeks ago, but the road has quickly proven to be a different animal. Wentz has to still be reeling from his ankle problems, and will be running for his life against a Miami defense that was tops in the league last season.
Prediction
We can't expect Brissett to have another one of those days where it takes nearly 50 attempts to have a respectable day. The Dolphins are going to play tough under head coach Brian Flores, and they'll keep things steady until Tagovailoa makes his return. Dolphins by 10
Betting trends
The Colts are 5-8 in their last 13 against the spread as an underdog, and are 2-12 straight up.
The Dolphins have won their last three against the spread as a home favorite.
Players to watch
Colts: Running back Marlon Mack has recently requested a trade, but he could be a difference maker against the Dolphins. He has at least 80 yards from scrimmage in his last two games against Miami.
Dolphins: Tight end Mike Gesicki was targeted a ton in the second half against Las Vegas. Gesicki finished with 10 catches for a team-best 86 yards. He has a receiving touchdown in two of his last three home games.
Statistical leaders
Colts:
Passing: Carson Wentz -- 692 yards, 3 TD, 1 INT
Rushing: Jonathan Taylor -- 171 yards
Receiving: Michael Pittman -- 220 yards
Defense: Al-Quadin Muhammad -- 1.5 sacks
Dolphins:
Passing: Jacoby Brissett -- 384 yards, 0 TD, 1 INT
Rushing: Myles Gaskin -- 139 yards
Receiving: Jaylen Waddle -- 167 yards, 1 TD
Defense: Brandon Jones -- 2 sacks
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Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
