Indiana Pacers vs Oklahoma City Thunder Prediction, Preview and Odds - 03/29/2025

by Rod Pearson

Friday, Mar 28, 2025
Game Time: 8:00 pm ET, Saturday, March 29, 2025
Venue:  Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, OK 
Where to Watch:  FDSOK


Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  Pacers +9.5, Thunder -9.5; Over/Under:  238 points
Bet365:  Point Spread:  Pacers +9.5, Thunder -9.5; Over/Under:  238 points
BetMGM:  Point Spread:  Pacers +9.5, Thunder -9.5; Over/Under:  238 points

Season Record

Indiana Pacers:  43-30 (2nd place, Central Division)
Oklahoma City Thunder:  61-12 (1st place, Northwest Division)

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Recent Form
Indiana Pacers:  8-2 last 10
Oklahoma City Thunder:  9-1 last 10


Indiana Pacers vs Oklahoma City Thunder Preview and Analysis


The Pacers are entering this game with a 43-30 record overall this season and they are 18-19 in their road games this season where they will be in this game. They are entering this game off a win against the Washington Wizards. Tyrese Haliburton led the team in points in that game with 29 while Myles Turner was next on the team with 17 points. Andrew Nembhard and T. J. McConnell each led the team in assists in that game with 8 while T. J. McConnell led the team in rebounds with 9. They were 64.1% from the field, 57.4% from 3-point range, and 89.5% from the free throw line with their shots in that game. Their offense is averaging 117.2 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 115.2 PPG against them. The Pacers have an ATS record of 33-37-3 this season and their O/U record is 37-34-2.



The Thunder are entering this game with a 61-12 record overall this season and they are 31-5 in their home games this season where they will be in this game. They are entering this game on an 8 game winning streak with wins coming against the Boston Celtics, the Detroit Pistons, the Milwaukee Bucks, the Philadelphia 76ers, the Charlotte Hornets, the Los Angeles Clippers, the Sacramento Kings, and the Memphis Grizzlies. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander led the team in points in that game with 37 while Jalen Williams was next on the team with 20 points. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander led the team in assists in that game with 6 while Isaiah Hartenstein led the team in rebounds with 11. They were 48.9% from the field, 41.9% from 3-point range, and 85.7% from the free throw line with their shots in that game. Their offense is averaging 119.9 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 106.9 PPG against them. The Thunder have an ATS record of 46-24-4 this season and their O/U record is 39-33-2.


Pacers vs Thunder Prediction

The current betting odds have the Thunder listed as a 9.5 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Thunder have looked great in their games this season with their 61-12 record overall which has them right at the top of the West with one of the best records in the entire NBA. They are the first team to hit 60 wins this season and they have looked great on their home court too with their 31-5 home record this season. Meanwhile, the Pacers have looked good in their games this season with their 43-30 record overall which has them in the top half of the East and in a playoff spot. They haven't been a good road team though with their 18-19 road record this season. The Pacers have been really hot lately as they are 8-2 in their last 10 games and they are coming off a win over the Wizards in their last one, scoring 162 points in that one. They had a great night with their shooting against the Wizards, but now they are playing a much stronger team and aren't going to shoot like they did in that game. The Thunder have also been a really hot team lately, and they are coming into this one even hotter than the Pacers. The Thunder are 9-1 in their last 10 games and they have a ton of momentum on their side with 8 wins in a row now. The Thunder have played their best at home and they just blew out the Grizzlies by double digits in their last game so as good as the Pacers have been lately, the Thunder are going to roll right past them like they have been doing with most of their opponents lately. The best way to place a bet here is on the Thunder to cover the spread in this game. 

Pacers Thunder Prediction:  Our NBA Pick for Saturday, March 29, 2025 (8:00 pm ET start time) is Thunder 136 Pacers 123.
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NBA Betting Trends


Indiana Pacers: 9-17 ATS against Northwest division opponents. 3-6 ATS after a game where they made 60% of their shots or better. 23-36 ATS when playing their 3rd game in 4 days. 53-33 OVER as an underdog  of 3.5 to 9.5 points. 21-9 OVER when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 70%).

Oklahoma City Thunder: 60-34 ATS as a home favorite. 22-9 ATS vs. poor rebounding teams - outrebounded by opponents by 3+ per game. 38-20 ATS in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 230. 36-18 OVER in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 230. 14-5 OVER after 3 or more consecutive unders.

Key Injuries


Indiana Pacers:  Q. Jackson (C) Out For Season - Calf.

Oklahoma City Thunder:  J. Williams (PF) Day To Day - Hip. A. Caruso (SG) Day To Day - Back. A. Wiggins (SG) Day To Day - Achilles. A. Ducas Day To Day - Quadriceps. O. Dieng (C) Day To Day - Calf. A. Mitchell (SG) Out - Toe. N. Topic (PG) Out For Season - ACL.


Notable Quotes


“It’s obviously fun to watch when you’re coaching the team making all the shots. But there was a spirit of unselfishness which is really what Indiana’s about.” - Rick Carlisle after his team’s win against the Wizards in their game on Thursday.


"It always starts with defense. Once we're getting stops, and we rebound and we play fast, that's when (those runs) usually come." - Shai Gilgeous-Alexander after their win against the Grizzlies in their game on Thursday.


Starting Lineups


Indiana Pacers
PG Tyrese Haliburton
SG Andrew Nembhard
SF Aaron Nesmith
PF Pascal Siakam
C Myles Turner

Oklahoma City Thunder
PG Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
SG Cason Wallace
SF Luguentz Dort
PF Jalen Williams
C Chet Holmgren

Statistical Leaders


Indiana Pacers
PPG: P. Siakam (20.6)
APG: T. Haliburton (9.2)
Reb/G: P. Siakam (6.9)

Oklahoma City Thunder
PPG: S. Gilgeous-Alexander (32.9)
APG: S. Gilgeous-Alexander (6.3)
Reb/G: I. Hartenstein (11)

Coaches:
Indiana Pacers: Rick Carlisle (4th season)
Oklahoma City Thunder: Mark Daigneault (5th season)



Rod Pearson

About the Author:

Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life.  He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years.  In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective.  Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.

All photographic images used for editorial content have been licensed from the Associated Press.

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