by Hollywood Sports
Sunday, Jun 30, 2024Successful handicapping in horse racing involves identifying overlay and underlay values to the betting odds — and reacting accordingly. We want overlays — horses that offer more value than their odds indicate. We should be cautious when it comes to investing in underlay horses since the betting value in those events is not commensurate with the odds.
That’s the easy part. The hard part when handicapping horse races is to accurately evaluate and identify these overlay and underlay horses. When handicapping the Belmont Stakes, I concluded that the betting favorite Sierra Leone was an egregious underlay with his morning line odds at 9:5. While the betting action that Saturday went against that horse, Sierra Leone remained the betting favorite at 2:1 when the race started — and I considered him still of underlay value.
Sierra Leone was considered the premier closer in this race — and perhaps my feelings would have been different for him if this was 1 1/2 miles. But the 156th running of the Belmont Stakes was temporarily moved to the Saratoga Race Course in Saratoga Springs, New York with Belmont Park undergoing a two-year renovation. This race was only 1 1/4 miles at Saratoga, a 1/4 mile shorter than the traditional 1 1/2 mile race at Belmont.
His two losses were by a nose including at the Kentucky Derby — but he demonstrated some immaturity in how he attacked that race. Trainer Chad Brown changed his jockey since the Derby — Flavien Prat was now riding him. And there was been an equipment change. Some pundits may see these changes as solving problems. Admittedly, sometimes “adding the blinkers” works — but more often than not, these tinkerings are indicative of a bigger problem. Generally, I think changes like this add risk — and adding risk does not make sense for a 2-1 favorite. The most important race for Sierra Leone was the Kentucky Derby — so the fact that these problems were not identified before then is a problem Brown needs to take responsibility for himself.
Furthermore, Sierra Leone’s best Beyer figure was just 99 — and there were three other horses with higher speed figures in their career. While these speed numbers need to be taken with a grain of salt, they are an objective way to measure the potential best efforts of the horses in the field.
Sierra Leone finished in third place in the race. Dornoch won the race and rewarded his supporters at 17-1 closing odds for some very nice overlay value. Mindframe finished in second place after closing at 6-1 odds. His 103 Beyer figure was the best in the field, but I was hesitant to invest in horse racing for just the third time — and the first time in a graded stakes race. Interestingly, the other two horses with Beyer figures higher than Sierra Leone and in the 100s, Mystik Dan and Seize the Day, finished last and second-to-last. Sometimes the Beyer speed numbers present horses that have already peaked with their performance.
Seize the Day who registered a 100 while winning the Preakness Stakes three weeks prior. His previous highest Beyer figure was 88 — so the Regression Gods may be making an appearance. How much did Seize the Day benefit from the wet track that day? There were clear skies for the Belmont. It was his third race in five weeks — so fatigue was a concern.
Fatigue was also a factor for #3 Mystik Dan who is the only horse to compete at both previous legs of the Triple Crown this year. Mystik Dan won the Kentucky Derby — and he had a reputation as a mudder before finishing second at the Preakness. Mystik Dan did not run the best technical race at the Derby but benefited from the large field and some bad trips from his top competition. I suspected the Preakness States field was relatively weak — and not beating Seize the Grey that day was an indictment.
My handicapping did not all come out roses for the Belmont Stakes. My Best Bet was on #5 Antiquarian who was coming off winning the Peter Pan at 6-1 odds on May 11th. At 12-1 morning line odds, I thought Antiquarian was a nice overlay. I wrote at the time: “I think this race shapes up for another underdog to upset the favorites” — and I got that part right. Arcangelo won the Belmont Stakes last year at closing odds in the 7-1 range — and that was also off winning the Peter Pan in his previous start. Granted, the Belmont was at a different track with a different distance — but a recent winner coming into the third leg of the Kentucky Derby certainly has precedent. Antiquarian’s previous race was a sixth place at the Louisiana Derby — but he had to break through the gate to begin that race which put him at a competitive disadvantage given that expenditure of energy. There was a lot to like. Antiquarian was lightly raced with this being just his fifth career start. He had steadily improved from race-to-race — and the distance did not appear to be a problem. He was trained by Todd Pletcher who has won the Belmont Stakes four times in his career. He was being ridden by John Velazquez who is one of the best jockeys in the business.
Alas, Antiquarian faded late and finished in fifth place. But in a choice between being wrong about a 2-1 betting favorite or a horse at 12-1 odds I’ll take the overlay every time.
Best of luck — Frank.
That’s the easy part. The hard part when handicapping horse races is to accurately evaluate and identify these overlay and underlay horses. When handicapping the Belmont Stakes, I concluded that the betting favorite Sierra Leone was an egregious underlay with his morning line odds at 9:5. While the betting action that Saturday went against that horse, Sierra Leone remained the betting favorite at 2:1 when the race started — and I considered him still of underlay value.
Sierra Leone was considered the premier closer in this race — and perhaps my feelings would have been different for him if this was 1 1/2 miles. But the 156th running of the Belmont Stakes was temporarily moved to the Saratoga Race Course in Saratoga Springs, New York with Belmont Park undergoing a two-year renovation. This race was only 1 1/4 miles at Saratoga, a 1/4 mile shorter than the traditional 1 1/2 mile race at Belmont.
His two losses were by a nose including at the Kentucky Derby — but he demonstrated some immaturity in how he attacked that race. Trainer Chad Brown changed his jockey since the Derby — Flavien Prat was now riding him. And there was been an equipment change. Some pundits may see these changes as solving problems. Admittedly, sometimes “adding the blinkers” works — but more often than not, these tinkerings are indicative of a bigger problem. Generally, I think changes like this add risk — and adding risk does not make sense for a 2-1 favorite. The most important race for Sierra Leone was the Kentucky Derby — so the fact that these problems were not identified before then is a problem Brown needs to take responsibility for himself.
Furthermore, Sierra Leone’s best Beyer figure was just 99 — and there were three other horses with higher speed figures in their career. While these speed numbers need to be taken with a grain of salt, they are an objective way to measure the potential best efforts of the horses in the field.
Sierra Leone finished in third place in the race. Dornoch won the race and rewarded his supporters at 17-1 closing odds for some very nice overlay value. Mindframe finished in second place after closing at 6-1 odds. His 103 Beyer figure was the best in the field, but I was hesitant to invest in horse racing for just the third time — and the first time in a graded stakes race. Interestingly, the other two horses with Beyer figures higher than Sierra Leone and in the 100s, Mystik Dan and Seize the Day, finished last and second-to-last. Sometimes the Beyer speed numbers present horses that have already peaked with their performance.
Seize the Day who registered a 100 while winning the Preakness Stakes three weeks prior. His previous highest Beyer figure was 88 — so the Regression Gods may be making an appearance. How much did Seize the Day benefit from the wet track that day? There were clear skies for the Belmont. It was his third race in five weeks — so fatigue was a concern.
Fatigue was also a factor for #3 Mystik Dan who is the only horse to compete at both previous legs of the Triple Crown this year. Mystik Dan won the Kentucky Derby — and he had a reputation as a mudder before finishing second at the Preakness. Mystik Dan did not run the best technical race at the Derby but benefited from the large field and some bad trips from his top competition. I suspected the Preakness States field was relatively weak — and not beating Seize the Grey that day was an indictment.
My handicapping did not all come out roses for the Belmont Stakes. My Best Bet was on #5 Antiquarian who was coming off winning the Peter Pan at 6-1 odds on May 11th. At 12-1 morning line odds, I thought Antiquarian was a nice overlay. I wrote at the time: “I think this race shapes up for another underdog to upset the favorites” — and I got that part right. Arcangelo won the Belmont Stakes last year at closing odds in the 7-1 range — and that was also off winning the Peter Pan in his previous start. Granted, the Belmont was at a different track with a different distance — but a recent winner coming into the third leg of the Kentucky Derby certainly has precedent. Antiquarian’s previous race was a sixth place at the Louisiana Derby — but he had to break through the gate to begin that race which put him at a competitive disadvantage given that expenditure of energy. There was a lot to like. Antiquarian was lightly raced with this being just his fifth career start. He had steadily improved from race-to-race — and the distance did not appear to be a problem. He was trained by Todd Pletcher who has won the Belmont Stakes four times in his career. He was being ridden by John Velazquez who is one of the best jockeys in the business.
Alas, Antiquarian faded late and finished in fifth place. But in a choice between being wrong about a 2-1 betting favorite or a horse at 12-1 odds I’ll take the overlay every time.
Best of luck — Frank.
