by Hollywood Sports
Thursday, Oct 31, 2024It is not often teams with a 2-6 record are favored against teams with a 6-2 record -- but that was the case on Halloween with the New York Jets favored by less than a field goal against the Houston Texans.
This was a clear Pros versus Joes game with the supposed "sharps" on the Jets with the public taking the team with the far better record and the better quarterback (and, yes, in 2024, C.J. Stroud is the better quarterback versus Aaron Rodgers).
I endorsed the Jets in this situation -- and, no, this is not my wink-wink message for someone to call the police because I have been kidnapped by saying something very much out of character. I have been quite skeptical about this New York Jets team with Aaron Rodgers at quarterback.
But they are favored tonight for a reason I do not invoke empirical situational angles often in my (long) Reports — but I do track this information in my database. In the last 20 years in the NFL games played in October, November, or December, there have been only eight teams who were not winning more than 25% of their games favored against a team with a winning percentage of 75% or higher. Those favorites with bad records have a 5-2-1 ATS mark going into tonight’s game.
New York held the Patriots to just 247 yards last week and did not commit a turnover despite losing that game. In that “accomplishment”, they became the first team since 2013 to lose an NFL game despite holding their opponent to under 250 yards and not committing a turnover in that game. Before that game last Sunday, NFL teams who did not commit a turnover and did not allow 250 or more yards were 220-0 straight up.
I do not like the chemistry and cohesion of this team at all — but perhaps that there are now 2-6 on the season, it fits their character to finally pull out a win in prime-time on Halloween night. The pressure was off at this point. They are not going to make the playoffs since that would require them to most likely reel off eight wins in their final nine games. They have an 0-4 record in games decided by six points or less. And now they were playing a wounded Texans team that is without C.J. Stroud’s top-two targets in the passing game with Nico Collins still injured and now Stefon Diggs out the season with the injury he incurred last week.
Now Houston goes back on the road where Stroud has not been nearly as effective. In his 12 career starts at home, Stroud has 22 touchdown passes while completing 66.4% of his passes, averaging 308.9 passing YPG, and posting a Passer Rating of 105.7. But in his 11 career starts on the road, he has only 12 touchdown passes while completing 62.8% of his passes, averaging just 213.5 passing YPG, and posting a 90.5 Passer Rating. The Texans were getting outscored on the road by -1.7 Points-Per-Game — and the Jets were outscoring their opponents at home by +5.6 PPG and winning the yardage battle by +119.0 net Yards-Per-Game.
Sure enough, the Jets found a way to win the game by a 21-13 score. As is kind of suspected, strange events were in store for this game played on Halloween night. Rookie Malachi Corley seemed to score the opening touchdown of the game -- but he decided to drop the ball before he crossed into the end zone with the ball bouncing in the end zone. I did my own research on this and it turns out that rather than the Jets scoring a touchdown, the result was a touchdown. If you want one play to define this team's season, this was it.
But later, the Texans took three points off the board midway through when New York committed a personal foul on the field goal attempt by putting a knee to the Houston snapper. Down 14-10 at the time, Houston accepted the penalty to try to score a go-ahead touchdown. But when their drive stalled, the Texans tried for another field goal -- but this time the shorter attempt shanked off the left post. To paraphrase Glenn Danzig with the Misfits: "I remember (its) Halloween!"
Rather than needing one more score to cover the point spread with a 14-13 lead, the Jets now just need to milk the clock to win (and cover the point spread). On a crucial third down play, Rodgers connected with Davante Adams for the game (and point spread) clinching touchdown.
Be wary of fading unlikely favorites when hosting a team with a much better record -- especially on Halloween!
This was a clear Pros versus Joes game with the supposed "sharps" on the Jets with the public taking the team with the far better record and the better quarterback (and, yes, in 2024, C.J. Stroud is the better quarterback versus Aaron Rodgers).
I endorsed the Jets in this situation -- and, no, this is not my wink-wink message for someone to call the police because I have been kidnapped by saying something very much out of character. I have been quite skeptical about this New York Jets team with Aaron Rodgers at quarterback.
But they are favored tonight for a reason I do not invoke empirical situational angles often in my (long) Reports — but I do track this information in my database. In the last 20 years in the NFL games played in October, November, or December, there have been only eight teams who were not winning more than 25% of their games favored against a team with a winning percentage of 75% or higher. Those favorites with bad records have a 5-2-1 ATS mark going into tonight’s game.
New York held the Patriots to just 247 yards last week and did not commit a turnover despite losing that game. In that “accomplishment”, they became the first team since 2013 to lose an NFL game despite holding their opponent to under 250 yards and not committing a turnover in that game. Before that game last Sunday, NFL teams who did not commit a turnover and did not allow 250 or more yards were 220-0 straight up.
I do not like the chemistry and cohesion of this team at all — but perhaps that there are now 2-6 on the season, it fits their character to finally pull out a win in prime-time on Halloween night. The pressure was off at this point. They are not going to make the playoffs since that would require them to most likely reel off eight wins in their final nine games. They have an 0-4 record in games decided by six points or less. And now they were playing a wounded Texans team that is without C.J. Stroud’s top-two targets in the passing game with Nico Collins still injured and now Stefon Diggs out the season with the injury he incurred last week.
Now Houston goes back on the road where Stroud has not been nearly as effective. In his 12 career starts at home, Stroud has 22 touchdown passes while completing 66.4% of his passes, averaging 308.9 passing YPG, and posting a Passer Rating of 105.7. But in his 11 career starts on the road, he has only 12 touchdown passes while completing 62.8% of his passes, averaging just 213.5 passing YPG, and posting a 90.5 Passer Rating. The Texans were getting outscored on the road by -1.7 Points-Per-Game — and the Jets were outscoring their opponents at home by +5.6 PPG and winning the yardage battle by +119.0 net Yards-Per-Game.
Sure enough, the Jets found a way to win the game by a 21-13 score. As is kind of suspected, strange events were in store for this game played on Halloween night. Rookie Malachi Corley seemed to score the opening touchdown of the game -- but he decided to drop the ball before he crossed into the end zone with the ball bouncing in the end zone. I did my own research on this and it turns out that rather than the Jets scoring a touchdown, the result was a touchdown. If you want one play to define this team's season, this was it.
But later, the Texans took three points off the board midway through when New York committed a personal foul on the field goal attempt by putting a knee to the Houston snapper. Down 14-10 at the time, Houston accepted the penalty to try to score a go-ahead touchdown. But when their drive stalled, the Texans tried for another field goal -- but this time the shorter attempt shanked off the left post. To paraphrase Glenn Danzig with the Misfits: "I remember (its) Halloween!"
Rather than needing one more score to cover the point spread with a 14-13 lead, the Jets now just need to milk the clock to win (and cover the point spread). On a crucial third down play, Rodgers connected with Davante Adams for the game (and point spread) clinching touchdown.
Be wary of fading unlikely favorites when hosting a team with a much better record -- especially on Halloween!
