Humiliated Home Dogs Rarely Save Face in Avoiding a Playoff Sweep

After the Minnesota Timberwolves took a 3-0 series lead against the Phoenix Suns in a 126-109 upset victory as a 5.5-point underdog in Game 3 of that opening-round series on Friday, the oddsmakers installed them as a 2-point road favorite in Game 4 last Sunday. The betting market thought that was unjustified. Perhaps sold that the veteran Suns players like Kevin Durant, Devin Booker, and Bradley Beal would raise their level of play to avoid getting swept on their home court. The betting market may have been influenced by the Los Angeles Lakers beating Denver the previous night to keep that series alive rather than end their season on their home court getting swept.

Phoenix closed as a 1.5-point favorite in many shops. Yet history had demonstrated that home teams trying to avoid getting swept after getting dominated in the first three games of an NBA series simply do not fare well relative to the point spread. The Timberwolves won the first of their games by 25, 12, and 15 points. In their 126-109 upset victory on the road as a 5.5-point underdog on Friday, the Timberwolves had six players score in double digits led by Anthony Edwards’ 36 points. Head coach Chris Finch was outcoaching the Suns’ Frank Vogel. Minnesota was imposing its physical will on them. They outscored Phoenix by 20 points in the paint in Game 3. They were scoring 38.5% of their shots at the rim in this series. The Suns did not seem to have a player who could slow down Edwards. 

We considered this point spread movement as an overreaction, and history bears this out. Since the first round of the NBA playoffs was expanded to seven games, there had been nine teams who won the first three games of the opening series by ten or more points. Seven of these teams went on to win Game 4, and they all triumphed by six or more points. Three of those teams continued blowing out their outmatched opponents by twenty or more points. Only the 2012 Miami Heat and the 2018 Golden State Warriors failed to end that opening-round series in the fourth game. It perhaps is revealing that what both that Heat team and those Warriors had in common was that they both had reached the NBA finals the previous season. In hindsight, they got complacent and gave their opponent a little more life. Minnesota was still looking for their first playoff series victory in the Edwards era. They lost in the opening round to Denver in five games last year. 

The Suns started the game well and went into the locker room with a 61-56 lead. Yet the Timberwolves outscored them in the second half, 66-55, and ended the series with a 122-116 upset victory. Minnesota even covered the opening point spread from the oddsmakers as a 2-point road favorite. It is now eight of ten teams who won the first three games of the opening series by ten or more points and then went on to win Game 4 by six or more points. 

While it would probably be foolish to bet on a road team attempting to pull off a playoff sweep after winning the first three games by ten or more points solely because of this reason, it is something to consider. At the very least, this trend may provide enough of a reason to lay off the home dog playing for pride in front of their fans. Three straight losses by double-digits say something about the relative strengths of both teams. In this case, the oddsmakers recognized that and moved the point spread 7 points initially before the market responded. Once again, the wisdom of the oddsmakers was on display. 

Good luck - TDG.