by Team Del Genio
Thursday, Feb 29, 2024The oddsmakers initially installed the over/under for the 49ers/Chiefs Super Bowl showdown at 47.5. A week later on the Monday before the big game, the total had remained stuck at 47.5 in most shops, although there were a few 48s out there as of this writing. We at Team Del Genio thought the oddsmakers were subtly projecting a lower-scoring game. The Team went “all-in” with our NFL Total of the Year with the under. Below is much of our reasoning for that call.
The 2022 Super Bowl between the Los Angeles Rams and the Cincinnati Bengals had a closing over/under number in the 47.5 range, and that final score finished under the total with the Rams’ 23-20 victory. The 2024 Super Bowl total was on pace to be tied with that year’s game as the lowest over/under in a Super Bowl since the 2016 game between Denver and Carolina in Peyton Manning’s final season with the Broncos' elite defense leading the way to a 24-10 victory. The oddsmakers installed the over/under in the 43.5 range in that game. In the seven Super Bowls since, the oddsmakers had set the over/under in the 50s five times. Yet three of the last five final scores in the Super Bowl have seen 43 or fewer combined points scored.
In recent years, the expectation of higher-scoring games in a league that had leaned into the offensive side of the ball had not always matched up with the reality of the two teams competing in the big game. From this background, this rematch of the 2020 Super Bowl seemed set up to see fewer points than the 51 combined points scored in Kansas City’s 31-20 victory.
Patrick Mahomes won his first Super Bowl in that game, and he had since picked up a second championship ring in the Chiefs’ Super Bowl victory against Philadelphia last year. While many of the core players and coaches remain from that 2020 team, wide receiver Tyreek Hill is gone. This Kansas City team was the least explosive in Mahomes' career as their starting quarterback. They were only averaging 22.1 points per game going into the Super Bowl, and that number dropped to 21.0 points per game when they were playing away from Arrowhead Stadium.
Yet the biggest difference between those previous Super Bowl teams and this one had been on the other side of the line of scrimmage. The Chiefs now had one of the best defenses in the league as they were holding their opponents to 16.8 points per game. They had held their three playoff opponents to 13.7 points per game and 323 yards per game.
The Super Bowl was being played at Allegiant Field in Las Vegas which has a grass surface. Kansas City had played twelve of their last fourteen games under the number when playing on grass. The challenge of facing the powerful 49ers offense was already going to be stiff. San Francisco averaged 28.9 points per game and 6.8 yards per play going into the game. Yet the Chiefs had played six straight unders against teams who average 6.0 or more yards per play. This 49ers team had replaced Jimmy Garopollo with Brock Purdy at quarterback and added Christian McCaffrey at running back since that 2020 Super Bowl. Kyle Shanahan was still searching for his first Super Bowl victory having also lost the big game when he was the offensive coordinator for the Atlanta Falcons in 2017. Yet in Shanahan’s last eight playoff games as the 49ers head coach, six of those games finished under the number.
With the offense now centered around McCaffrey, Shanahan seemed content with more of a ball-control offense that runs time off the clock. They had the ball on offense for over 32 minutes against Detroit in the NFC championship game, and it was his fear of losing momentum to the Niners' grinding attack in the second half that Lions head coach Dan Campbell said motivated his controversial decisions to go for first downs and extend potential touchdown drives in those two failed fourth down attempts in that game.
The San Francisco defense had seen two new defensive coordinators since Robert Saleh called the plays in that 2020 Super Bowl. The 49ers' current defensive coordinator Steve Wilks is a veteran in the league who had previously been the head coach for Arizona. The unit is stacked with first-team All-Pro linebacker Fred Warner, second-team All-Pro cornerback Charvarius Ward, and last year’s Defensive Player of the Year Nick Bosa at tight end. The 49ers were allowing only 18.4 points per game and 313 yards per game. The 49ers had had three of their last four games and nine of their last fourteen games end with 45 or fewer combined points scored. Kansas City has had eight of their last nine and eleven of their last thirteen games end with 46 or fewer combined points scored.
Our handicapping for the Super Bowl was on point, yet the result remained very much in doubt with the possibility of overtime looming. With the score tied 19-19 at the end of regulation time, it was not difficult to see how the game could end finishing over the number. Yet San Francisco’s opening drive stalled in the red zone, and their ensuing field goal made the score 22-19 with 41 combined points. We were rooting for the Chiefs now since a touchdown would end the game at 25-22, just under the 47.5s. Rooting for a 49ers turnover would be another good result since it would end the game. A Kansas City field goal would make a subsequent touchdown a crushing blow. Fortunately, Mahomes worked his magic again to engineer a winning touchdown drive. We survive overtime and win our NFL Total of the Year!
Good luck - Team Del Genio.
The 2022 Super Bowl between the Los Angeles Rams and the Cincinnati Bengals had a closing over/under number in the 47.5 range, and that final score finished under the total with the Rams’ 23-20 victory. The 2024 Super Bowl total was on pace to be tied with that year’s game as the lowest over/under in a Super Bowl since the 2016 game between Denver and Carolina in Peyton Manning’s final season with the Broncos' elite defense leading the way to a 24-10 victory. The oddsmakers installed the over/under in the 43.5 range in that game. In the seven Super Bowls since, the oddsmakers had set the over/under in the 50s five times. Yet three of the last five final scores in the Super Bowl have seen 43 or fewer combined points scored.
In recent years, the expectation of higher-scoring games in a league that had leaned into the offensive side of the ball had not always matched up with the reality of the two teams competing in the big game. From this background, this rematch of the 2020 Super Bowl seemed set up to see fewer points than the 51 combined points scored in Kansas City’s 31-20 victory.
Patrick Mahomes won his first Super Bowl in that game, and he had since picked up a second championship ring in the Chiefs’ Super Bowl victory against Philadelphia last year. While many of the core players and coaches remain from that 2020 team, wide receiver Tyreek Hill is gone. This Kansas City team was the least explosive in Mahomes' career as their starting quarterback. They were only averaging 22.1 points per game going into the Super Bowl, and that number dropped to 21.0 points per game when they were playing away from Arrowhead Stadium.
Yet the biggest difference between those previous Super Bowl teams and this one had been on the other side of the line of scrimmage. The Chiefs now had one of the best defenses in the league as they were holding their opponents to 16.8 points per game. They had held their three playoff opponents to 13.7 points per game and 323 yards per game.
The Super Bowl was being played at Allegiant Field in Las Vegas which has a grass surface. Kansas City had played twelve of their last fourteen games under the number when playing on grass. The challenge of facing the powerful 49ers offense was already going to be stiff. San Francisco averaged 28.9 points per game and 6.8 yards per play going into the game. Yet the Chiefs had played six straight unders against teams who average 6.0 or more yards per play. This 49ers team had replaced Jimmy Garopollo with Brock Purdy at quarterback and added Christian McCaffrey at running back since that 2020 Super Bowl. Kyle Shanahan was still searching for his first Super Bowl victory having also lost the big game when he was the offensive coordinator for the Atlanta Falcons in 2017. Yet in Shanahan’s last eight playoff games as the 49ers head coach, six of those games finished under the number.
With the offense now centered around McCaffrey, Shanahan seemed content with more of a ball-control offense that runs time off the clock. They had the ball on offense for over 32 minutes against Detroit in the NFC championship game, and it was his fear of losing momentum to the Niners' grinding attack in the second half that Lions head coach Dan Campbell said motivated his controversial decisions to go for first downs and extend potential touchdown drives in those two failed fourth down attempts in that game.
The San Francisco defense had seen two new defensive coordinators since Robert Saleh called the plays in that 2020 Super Bowl. The 49ers' current defensive coordinator Steve Wilks is a veteran in the league who had previously been the head coach for Arizona. The unit is stacked with first-team All-Pro linebacker Fred Warner, second-team All-Pro cornerback Charvarius Ward, and last year’s Defensive Player of the Year Nick Bosa at tight end. The 49ers were allowing only 18.4 points per game and 313 yards per game. The 49ers had had three of their last four games and nine of their last fourteen games end with 45 or fewer combined points scored. Kansas City has had eight of their last nine and eleven of their last thirteen games end with 46 or fewer combined points scored.
Our handicapping for the Super Bowl was on point, yet the result remained very much in doubt with the possibility of overtime looming. With the score tied 19-19 at the end of regulation time, it was not difficult to see how the game could end finishing over the number. Yet San Francisco’s opening drive stalled in the red zone, and their ensuing field goal made the score 22-19 with 41 combined points. We were rooting for the Chiefs now since a touchdown would end the game at 25-22, just under the 47.5s. Rooting for a 49ers turnover would be another good result since it would end the game. A Kansas City field goal would make a subsequent touchdown a crushing blow. Fortunately, Mahomes worked his magic again to engineer a winning touchdown drive. We survive overtime and win our NFL Total of the Year!
Good luck - Team Del Genio.
