Houston Texans vs Kansas City Chiefs Prediction, Preview and Odds - 01/18/2025

Game Time: 4:30 pm ET, Saturday, January 18, 2025

Venue:  GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO

Where to Watch:  ESPN, ABC

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  Texans +7.5, Chiefs -7.5; Over/Under:  41.5 points

Bet365:  Point Spread:  Texans +8, Chiefs -8; Over/Under:  42 points

BetMGM:  Point Spread:  Texans +8, Chiefs -8; Over/Under:  42 points

Houston Texans:  10-7 (1st place, AFC South)

Kansas City Chiefs:  15-2 (1st place, AFC West)

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Houston Texans:  won their last game at home against the Los Angeles Chargers 32-12.

Kansas City Chiefs:  lost their last game on the road against the Denver Broncos 38-0.

The Texans finished the NFL regular season with a 10-7 record overall and they were 5-1 in their divisional games. They were 5-3 in their home games, 5-4 in their road games, and they were also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be on the road for this game. They won their last game against the Los Angeles Chargers 32-12. C. J. Stroud was the starting QB and he completed 22/33 passes for 282 passing yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception. Joe Mixon led the team in rushing yards with 106 and 1 TD. Nico Collins led the receivers with 122 receiving yards on 7 receptions and 1 TD. Eric Murray led the defense in that game with 4 solo tackles and 3 assisted tackles while Will Anderson Jr. and Mario Edwards Jr. each led the defense in sacks with 1.5. Derek Stingley Jr. led the defense in interceptions with 2 while Eric Murray and Kamari Lassiter each came away with 1 INT for them in that one.

 

 

 

The Chiefs finished the NFL regular season with a 15-2 record overall and they were 5-1 in their divisional games. They were 8-0 in their home games, 7-2 in their road games, and they were also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at home for this game. They lost their last game against the Denver Broncos 38-0. Carson Wentz was the starting QB and he completed 10/17 passes for 98 passing yards, 0 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. Carson Steele led the team in rushing yards with 25. Nikko Remigio led the receivers with 48 receiving yards on 2 receptions. Cameron Jones led the defense in that game with 7 solo tackles and 5 assisted tackles while no one on the defense recorded a sack for them. No one on the defense came away with an interception for them in that one.

The current betting odds have the Chiefs listed as a 7.5 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Chiefs have looked great in their games this season with their 15-2 record overall which leads the AFC West with the best record in the entire NFL. They looked great on their home field this year with their 8-0 home record and they had a first round bye for having the number 1 seed in the AFC. They lost their last game of the regular season to the Broncos 38-0, but they also rested most of their starters in that game and will be ready to go for the playoffs now. Meanwhile, the Texans have looked good in their games this season with their 10-7 record overall which has them leading the AFC South. They are coming off a playoff win over the Chargers at home and they looked great in that game, winning 32-12, but their defense also did a lot of the work in that one. Their defense has looked great lately and that is going to be big for them in the playoffs, but the Chiefs also have one of the best defenses in the NFL that can match them. As good as the defense looked against the Chargers, the offense still looked terrible as it has for most of the season and that will be a big issue for them as now they are going on the road for this game and playing against the back-to-back defending Super Bowl champions. The Chiefs had their moments this year where they didn't look great, but their offense started to look a lot better over the last month of the season as they were getting healthier and there are a lot more weapons for this Texans defense to deal with than what they saw against the Chargers. The best way to place a bet here is on the Chiefs to cover the spread in this game. 

Texans Chiefs Prediction:  Our NFL Pick for Saturday, January 18, 2025 (4:30 pm ET start time) is Chiefs 27 Texans 13.

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Houston Texans: 3-6 ATS off an upset win as an underdog. 1-5 ATS revenging a road loss against an opponent. 3-7 ATS after allowing 14 points or less last game. 5-0 UNDER revenging a road loss against an opponent. 4-1 UNDER after a win by 14 or more points. 24-12 UNDER in games played on a grass field.

Kansas City Chiefs: 6-1 ATS in playoff games. 6-3 ATS after 1 or more consecutive losses. 7-3 ATS when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 75%). 19-7 UNDER as a home favorite. 13-4 UNDER after playing a division game. 15-7 UNDER when playing against a team with a winning record.

Houston Texans:  T. Quitoriano (TE) Out - Calf. J. Hansen (LB) Injured - Ankle. D. Ross (CB) Injured - Shoulder. J. Metchie (WR) Questionable - Shoulder. J. Okudah (CB) Injured - Concussion. S. Mason (G) Out - Knee. D. Autry (DE) Questionable - Knee. W. Anderson (DE) Injured - Hand. C. Harris (LB) Questionable - Ankle. N. Broeker (G) Injured - Hand. F. Fatukasi (DT) Injured - Ankle.

Kansas City Chiefs:  None.

“Our defense, they dominated today. And that’s who we want to be. They played our brand of football.” - DeMeco Ryans after his team’s win against the LA Chargers in their last game. 

“My hat goes off to Denver. Great opportunity for them to get into the playoffs and did a nice job today. Sean (Payton) has done a good job with that group. A positive for us we got to play a lot of young guys. That experience is invaluable, especially against a good football team.” - Andy Reid after his team’s loss against the Broncos in their last game.

WR Collins, Nico

WR Hutchinson, Xavier 

WR Metchie III, John 

TE Schultz, Dalton

QB Stroud, C.J.

RB Mixon, Joe 

WR Hopkins, Deandre 

WR Worthy, Xavier

WR Brown, Hollywood

TE Kelce, Travis 

QB Mahomes, Patrick

RB Pacheco, Isiah

Passing: C. Stroud (3727)

Rushing: J. Mixon (1016)

Receiving: N. Collins (1006)

Touchdowns: J. Mixon (12)

Passing: P. Mahomes (3928)

Rushing: K. Hunt (728)

Receiving: T. Kelce (823)

Touchdowns: X. Worthy (9)

Coaches:

Houston Texans: DeMeco Ryans (2nd season)

Kansas City Chiefs: Andy Reid (12th season)