Houston Astros vs Toronto Blue Jays Prediction, Preview and Odds - 07/04/2024

Game Time: 1:07 pm ET, Thursday, July 4, 2024

Venue:  Rogers Centre, Toronto, ON

Where to Watch:  MLB Network

DraftKings:  Moneyline odds:  Astros -115, Blue Jays -105; Over/Under:  8.5 runs

Bet365:  Moneyline odds:  Astros -115, Blue Jays -105; Over/Under:  8.5 runs

BetMGM:  Moneyline odds:  Astros -115, Blue Jays -105; Over/Under:  8.5 runs

Houston Astros:  43-42 (2nd place, AL West)

Toronto Blue Jays:  39-46 (5th place, AL East)

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Houston Astros:  8-2 last 10

Toronto Blue Jays:  4-6 last 10

The Astros are entering this series off a win and won their 3-game series against the New York Mets 2-1 in their last series. They enter this game with a 43-42 record overall and have a road record of 19-23. This is the series finale of a 4-game series with the Blue Jays on Thursday with the 3rd game of this series still to be played on Wednesday. The Astros won the series opener of this series on Monday and lost the 2nd game on Tuesday. Their offense ranks 5th in the MLB with a .744 OPS. Ronel Blanco is their starting pitcher on Wednesday while Framber Valdez is making his start in this game on Thursday. He is 6-5 with a 4.11 ERA this season. His team won their last 2 straight games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 6 ER, 1 HR, and 3 BB with 5 Ks on 10 hits through 4.2 IP against the New York Mets.

The Blue Jays are entering this series off a loss and split their 4-game series against the New York Yankees 2-2 in their last series. They enter this game with a 39-46 record overall and have a home record of 21-22. This is the 4th game of a 4-game series with the Astros on Thursday with the 3rd game of this series still to be played on Wednesday. The Blue Jays lost the 1st game of this series on Monday and won the 2nd game on Tuesday. Their offense ranks 19th in the MLB with a .688 OPS. Yusei Kikuchi is their starting pitcher on Wednesday while Chris Bassitt is making his start in this game on Thursday. He is 7-6 with a 3.24 ERA this season. His team lost 4 of their last 5 games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 0 earned runs, 0 homers, and 2 BB with 8 strikeouts on 6 hits through 6 innings played against the New York Yankees.

The current betting odds have the Blue Jays listed as a slight underdog in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Blue Jays have looked terrible in their games this season with their 39-46 record overall and their 21-22 home record which has them at the bottom of the AL East. Meanwhile, the Astros haven't looked great in their games this season either with their 43-42 record overall. They just pulled themselves over .500 since they have been playing better lately, but they haven't been great in road games with their 19-23 road record. These two have already split the first 2 games of this series with the 3rd game still to be played, but the Blue Jays do have a big edge with the pitching matchup in this one. Valdez is on the mound for the Astros here and he hasn't looked great with his 6-5 record and his 4.11 ERA. The team has won their last 2 games with him starting, but he did give up 6 earned runs in his last start and has been giving up a ton of runs this season. The Jays are going to have Bassitt starting in this one and he has been really good for them lately, especially in their home games. He is 7-6 with a 3.24 ERA and hasn't had many bad starts this year. He has also looked a lot better lately and didn't give up any runs in his last start. The team has lost 4 of their last 5 games with him starting, but he has been pitching so well lately that he is due for a win here, and this will be a game that the Jays can put some runs up too. The best way to place a bet here is on the Blue Jays to win this game. 

Astros Blue Jays Prediction:  Our MLB Pick for Thursday, July 4, 2024 (1:07 pm ET start time) is Blue Jays 6 Astros 4.

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Houston Astros: 11-2 (+9.45 units) on the moneyline in their last 13 games. 19-7 (+13.50 units) on the runline in their last 26 games. 42-27 to the under in their last 69 games.

Toronto Blue Jays: 27-38 (-17.50 units) on the moneyline in their last 65 games. 28-41 (-21.75 units) on the runline in their last 69 games. 45-35 to the under for their team total in their last 80 games. 

Houston Astros:  J. Bloss (SP) - Shoulder. V. Caratini (C) - Hip. J. Verlander (SP) - Neck. C. Javier (SP) - Forearm. K. Tucker (RF) - Shin. J. Urquidy (SP) - Forearm. O. Ortega (RP) - Elbow. J. Sousa (RP) - Shoulder. W. Murfee (SP) - Elbow. L. Garcia (SP) - Elbow. L. McCullers (SP) - Elbow. K. Graveman (RP) - Elbow.

Toronto Blue Jays:  D. Varsho (LF) - Back. Y. García (RP) - Elbow. J. Romano (RP) - Elbow. A. Manoah (SP) - Elbow.

“We fought back. We gave ourselves a chance there at the end.” - Joe Espada after his team’s loss against the Blue Jays in their game on Tuesday.

“That’s kind of what we’ve been missing is that big blow there with guys on base.” - John Schneider after his team’s win against the Astros in their game on Tuesday.

J Altuve (R) 2B

A Bregman (R) 3B

Y Alvarez (L) LF

Y Diaz (R) DH

J Meyers (R) CF

J Singleton (L) 1B

J Peña (R) SS

J Loperfido (L) RF

C Salazar (L) C

B Bichette (R) SS

S Horwitz (L) 2B

V Guerrero Jr. (R) 1B

J Turner (R) DH

G Springer (R) RF

D Varsho (L) CF

E Clement (R) 3B

A Kirk (R) C

A Barger (L) LF

Batting Average:  César Salazar (.375)

Hits:  Jose Altuve (106)

Home Runs:  Kyle Tucker (19)

RBI:  Yordan Alvarez (46)

Stolen Bases:  Jose Altuve (13)

Wins:  Ronel Blanco (8)

Saves:  Josh Hader (13)

ERA:  Dylan Coleman (0.00)

Batting Average:  Orelvis Martinez (.333)

Hits:  Vladimir Guerrero (97)

Home Runs:  Vladimir Guerrero (13)

RBI:  Vladimir Guerrero (50)

Stolen Bases:  George Springer (9)

Wins:  José Berríos (8)

Saves:  Jordan Romano (8)

ERA:  Brandon Eisert (0.00)

Managers:

Houston Astros: Joe Espada (1st season)

Toronto Blue Jays: John Schneider (3rd season)