Houston Astros vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction, Preview and Odds - 08/28/2024

Game Time: 4:05 pm ET, Wednesday, August 28, 2024

Venue:  Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, PA 

Where to Watch:  NBCS-PH

DraftKings:  Moneyline odds:  Astros -108, Phillies -112; Over/Under:  9.5 runs

Bet365:  Moneyline odds:  Astros -110, Phillies -110; Over/Under:  9.5 runs

BetMGM:  Moneyline odds:  Astros -110, Phillies -110; Over/Under:  9.5 runs

Houston Astros:  70-61 (1st place, AL West)

Philadelphia Phillies:  77-54 (1st place, NL West)

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Houston Astros:  5-5 last 10

Philadelphia Phillies:  6-4 last 10

The Astros are entering this series off a win and split their 4-game series against the Baltimore Orioles 2-2 in their last series. They enter this game with a 70-61 record overall and have a road record of 35-32. This is the series finale of a 3-game series with the Phillies on Wednesday with the 2nd game of this series still to be played on Tuesday. The Astros lost the series opener of this series on Monday. Their offense ranks 11th in the MLB with a .737 OPS. Justin Verlander is their starting pitcher on Tuesday while rookie pitcher Spencer Arrighetti is making his start in this game on Wednesday. He is 6-11 with a 4.94 ERA this season. His team won 2 of their last 3 games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 0 ER, 0 HR, and 1 BB with 6 Ks on 3 hits through 6 IP against the Baltimore Orioles.

The Phillies are entering this series off a win and won their 3-game series against the Kansas City Royals 2-1 in their last series. They enter this game with a 77-54 record overall and have a home record of 43-23. This is the 3rd game of a 3-game series with the Astros on Wednesday with the 2nd game of this series still to be played on Tuesday. The Phillies won the 1st game of this series on Monday. Their offense ranks 7th in the MLB with a .749 OPS. Aaron Nola is their starting pitcher on Tuesday while Taijuan Walker is making his start in this game on Wednesday. He is 3-5 with a 6.26 ERA this season. His team lost their last 8 straight games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 6 earned runs, 2 homers, and 1 BB with 2 strikeouts on 8 hits through 3 innings played against the Kansas City Royals.

The current betting odds have the Astros listed as a slight underdog in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Phillies have looked great in their games this season with their 77-54 record overall which has them leading the NL West with one of the best records in the entire MLB. They have also looked great in their home games with their 43-23 home record which is one of the best in the MLB. Meanwhile, the Astros have looked good in their games this season with their 70-61 record overall which leads the AL West, but that record wouldn't be getting them into the Wild Card in the AL at the moment. They haven't looked great in their road games either with their 35-32 road record this season. The Astros already lost the series opener to the Phillies but it was a close 3-2 loss and they will be looking to bounce back now that they have a more favorable pitching matchup. They are going with their rookie Arrighetti in this one but he hasn't looked bad lately, pitching a lot better now than he was at the start of the season. He is 6-11 with a 4.94 ERA, but he gave up no runs in his last start and hasn't been giving up as many runs lately. His team has also been having more success with him starting, winning 2 of their last 3 games with him on the mound. The Phillies are going with Walker in this one and he has looked terrible this season. He is 3-5 with a 6.26 ERA and has been giving up a ton of runs in his starts. He gave up 6 earned runs in his last start which has been a common theme for him, and his team has lost 8 games in a row with him starting. The Astros are still fighting to keep their division lead in the AL West and this is a good game for them to bounce back in with the better pitching matchup. The best way to place a bet here is on the Astros to win this game. 

Astros Phillies Prediction:  Our MLB Pick for Wednesday, August 28, 2024 (4:05 pm ET start time) is Astros 8 Phillies 4.

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Houston Astros: 37-22 (+10.35 units) on the moneyline in their last 59 games. 43-31 (+13.65 units) on the runline in their last 74 games. 64-45 to the under in their last 109 games. 

Philadelphia Phillies: 28-38 (-13.40 units) on the runline in their last 66 games. 23-12 to the under with their team total in their last 25 home games. 26-14 to the under with their first 5 team total in their last 40 games. 

Houston Astros:  M. Dubon (CF) Ques Tue - Shoulder. J. France (SP) Out indefinitely - Shoulder. R. Pressly (RP) Out indefinitely - Back. L. McCullers Jr. (SP) out of season - Forearm. K. Tucker (RF) Out indefinitely - Shin. K. Graveman (RP) out for season - Shoulder. C. Javier (SP) out of season - Forearm. J. Urquidy (SP) out for season - Forearm. B. Sousa (RP) out for season - Shoulder. O. Ortega (RP) Late July - Elbow. P. Murfee (SP) Mid July - Elbow. L. Garcia (SP) Mid July - Elbow.

Philadelphia Phillies:  J. Alvarado (RP) Out indefinitely - Personal. W. Wilson (3B) Out indefinitely - Personal. S. Turnbull (SP) Out indefinitely - Shoulder. L. Ortiz (RP) out for season - Ankle. D. Covey (RP) Out indefinitely - Shoulder.

“Just one hit away, but our at-bats were really good.” - Joe Espada after his team’s loss against the Phillies in their game on Monday.

“I thought we fought and kept after it.” - Rob Thomson after his team’s win against the Astros in their game on Monday.

Alex Bregman (R) 3B

Yordan Alvarez (L) LF

Yainer Diaz (R) C

Jeremy Peña (R) SS

Jon Singleton (L) DH

Victor Caratini (S) 1B

Ben Gamel (L) RF

Jake Meyers (R) CF

Shay Whitcomb (R) 2B

Kyle Schwarber (L) DH

Trea Turner (R) SS

Bryce Harper (L) 1B

Alec Bohm (R) 3B

Nick Castellanos (R) RF

Bryson Stott (L) 2B

J.T. Realmuto (R) C

Brandon Marsh (L) CF

Austin Hays (R) LF

Batting Average:  Ben Gamel (.400)

Hits:  Jose Altuve (154)

Home Runs:  Yordan Alvarez (25)

RBI:  Yainer Diaz (72)

Stolen Bases:  Jose Altuve (18)

Wins:  Framber Valdez (13)

Saves:  Josh Hader (28)

ERA:  Dylan Coleman (0.00)

Batting Average:  Weston Wilson (.353)

Hits:  Alec Bohm (145)

Home Runs:  Kyle Schwarber (28)

RBI:  Alec Bohm (88)

Stolen Bases:  Bryson Stott (26)

Wins:  Zack Wheeler (12)

Saves:  José Alvarado (13)

ERA:  Max Lazar (0.00)

Managers:

Houston Astros: Joe Espada (1st season)

Philadelphia Phillies: Rob Thomson (3rd season)