Four College Hoops Teams To Sell High On

We’re already almost a month into the college basketball season. A lot of teams have already played six or seven games. Today, I want to take a look at four teams I would consider selling high on. I like to think of the stock market system of buying low and selling high and apply it to sports betting. About the time many others are trying to buy when a team has covered a bunch of games in a row, it is usually a good time to be selling. 

George Washington (5-2 ATS So Far) George Washington is 6-1 straight up and 5-2 ATS on the season. George Washington is shooting 37% from 3 point range on the season. In the last three years, this team has shot 32% or 33% from long range every single year. They are also shooting 80% from the free throw line this season. Those shooting numbers are very likely to regress toward the mean. George Washington has also committed a very small amount of fouls (6th fewest in FTA/FGA in country) and their defense is likely going to be called for more fouls going forward.

Northern Illinois (5-0 ATS) The Northern Illinois Huskies are a perfect 5-0 ATS this year. Out of 362 teams in the country, Northern Illinois ranks as the fifth luckiest team so far this year according to KenPom. Their opponents are shooting just 28% from the three point line on the season. The Huskies have the sixth highest rate of getting to the free throw line in the country. I do think this is a team that is at least somewhat improved, but they aren’t as good as they have looked in the first five games. 

Butler (6-1 ATS) The Butler Bulldogs have had a great start to the season. Thad Matta’s team has blown away several weak opponents. They do have solid wins over Penn State and Boise State as well. I’m not in a rush to fade them when they are playing weaker teams coming up on their schedule, but in Big East play I think this team will be a good fade. The Big East is a really tough conference. Butler isn’t likely to be able to keep holding opposing teams to 26.7% from three point range. The Bulldogs are better, but I think the market will get too high on this team.

Lamar (4-2 ATS) The Lamar Cardinals have shot 31%, 30%, and 32% from three point range in the last three years. Through six games this year, Lamar is shooting 42.2% from three. It sounds too good to be true doesn’t it? This team won’t be able to keep this up. This is a team that plays at a very fast pace, and they are unlikely to be able to keep scoring at the level they have been at thus far. Lamar has played a very easy schedule season to date, and they have some tougher games coming up soon. They’ll play Sam Houston, Southern Miss, and LSU in the next few weeks. I’ll look for some spots to fade Lamar.