by Team Del Genio
Sunday, Dec 31, 2023Based on their going undefeated and winning the ACC championship game against Louisville and the lack of two other undefeated power-five conference teams with undefeated records, the Florida State Seminoles should have been selected to compete in the college football playoff.
Some may say that their 63-3 loss to Georgia in the Orange Bowl demonstrates they would have offered little competition in the final four, yet that ignores the fact that the Seminoles played that game without more than twenty of the players that beat the Cardinals last month. At the time, the most popular argument justifying the exclusion of Florida State was that their starting quarterback Jordan Travis was out the season with an injury. Unfortunately, the Seminoles were not given any benefit of the doubt for beating Louisville by double digits with a third-string quarterback, Brock Glenn, despite the Cardinals being ranked in the top 15 of their playoff ranking system.
If Florida State would have played in the playoff semifinals, presumably against Michigan, then it would have been second-string quarterback Tate Rodemaker most likely under center given the extra four weeks to clear the concussion protocol. Critics complaining about the Seminoles only gaining 219 yards in their victory failed to understand the situation.
Neither the committee nor anyone else has any reliable idea how the Florida State offense would perform with a month of practice with Rodemaker getting the first string reps. Alabama was selected above them because of the presumption of their superior talent because of their high-level recruiting rankings. Yet computer rankings systems were supposed to remove these biases. If recruiting is so important, why not just have two guaranteed SEC teams in because of recruiting rankings (that are often wrong, by the way, as demonstrated by the number of four and five-star players that enter the transfer portal)?
The era of SEC dominance may already be over given the transfer portal and NIL. Selecting Alabama over Florida State presumes one is confident in the assessment that the SEC dominance still prevails and that their champion deserves the benefit of the doubt at the exclusion of an undefeated power five conference team. Would this still be the case if the SEC conference championship game-winner was a two-loss team? Georgia and Alabama seem to have taken a step back this year. Perhaps they are both two of the top four teams in the nation if afforded a schedule where they play a 100-game round-robin against the top sixteen teams in the county. Who knows. Yet the bigger issue may be how many steps back teams like Florida, Tennessee, Auburn, and Ole Miss have taken this season. The impact of NIL and the transfer portal is immediate, especially when losing players to the NFL. These rosters turnover very quickly. What was Georgia’s most impressive victory this season?
Some observers point to the oddsmakers' odds that project Alabama as much more competitive than Florida State in the final four. Yet that is a reason to perhaps include Ohio State over Washington in the playoffs even after their loss to Michigan last month. Relying on the oddsmakers' betting line as an argument to include or exclude a potential playoff team is misguided. The oddsmakers are establishing a betting line to attract similar action on both sides from the market. The market assessment is often wrong. The market was not on the Arizona Cardinals to upset the Philadelphia Eagles. It’s why we play the games.
The Seminoles earned the right to develop their players for another month after beating all of their previous opponents. Instead, the playoff committee started guessing despite their lack of expertise in the matter. This guessing is what was unfair about their process. The unfortunate element for the Florida State football team is that the college football playoff committee lacks the expertise to make the educated guess that it conducted. Cynical observers are left wondering if their higher calling all along was simply television ratings.
Good luck - Team Del Genio.
Some may say that their 63-3 loss to Georgia in the Orange Bowl demonstrates they would have offered little competition in the final four, yet that ignores the fact that the Seminoles played that game without more than twenty of the players that beat the Cardinals last month. At the time, the most popular argument justifying the exclusion of Florida State was that their starting quarterback Jordan Travis was out the season with an injury. Unfortunately, the Seminoles were not given any benefit of the doubt for beating Louisville by double digits with a third-string quarterback, Brock Glenn, despite the Cardinals being ranked in the top 15 of their playoff ranking system.
If Florida State would have played in the playoff semifinals, presumably against Michigan, then it would have been second-string quarterback Tate Rodemaker most likely under center given the extra four weeks to clear the concussion protocol. Critics complaining about the Seminoles only gaining 219 yards in their victory failed to understand the situation.
Neither the committee nor anyone else has any reliable idea how the Florida State offense would perform with a month of practice with Rodemaker getting the first string reps. Alabama was selected above them because of the presumption of their superior talent because of their high-level recruiting rankings. Yet computer rankings systems were supposed to remove these biases. If recruiting is so important, why not just have two guaranteed SEC teams in because of recruiting rankings (that are often wrong, by the way, as demonstrated by the number of four and five-star players that enter the transfer portal)?
The era of SEC dominance may already be over given the transfer portal and NIL. Selecting Alabama over Florida State presumes one is confident in the assessment that the SEC dominance still prevails and that their champion deserves the benefit of the doubt at the exclusion of an undefeated power five conference team. Would this still be the case if the SEC conference championship game-winner was a two-loss team? Georgia and Alabama seem to have taken a step back this year. Perhaps they are both two of the top four teams in the nation if afforded a schedule where they play a 100-game round-robin against the top sixteen teams in the county. Who knows. Yet the bigger issue may be how many steps back teams like Florida, Tennessee, Auburn, and Ole Miss have taken this season. The impact of NIL and the transfer portal is immediate, especially when losing players to the NFL. These rosters turnover very quickly. What was Georgia’s most impressive victory this season?
Some observers point to the oddsmakers' odds that project Alabama as much more competitive than Florida State in the final four. Yet that is a reason to perhaps include Ohio State over Washington in the playoffs even after their loss to Michigan last month. Relying on the oddsmakers' betting line as an argument to include or exclude a potential playoff team is misguided. The oddsmakers are establishing a betting line to attract similar action on both sides from the market. The market assessment is often wrong. The market was not on the Arizona Cardinals to upset the Philadelphia Eagles. It’s why we play the games.
The Seminoles earned the right to develop their players for another month after beating all of their previous opponents. Instead, the playoff committee started guessing despite their lack of expertise in the matter. This guessing is what was unfair about their process. The unfortunate element for the Florida State football team is that the college football playoff committee lacks the expertise to make the educated guess that it conducted. Cynical observers are left wondering if their higher calling all along was simply television ratings.
Good luck - Team Del Genio.
