by Rod Pearson
Monday, Nov 04, 2024
Game Time: 12:00 pm ET, Saturday, November 9, 2024
Venue: Darrell K Royal Texas Memorial Stadium, Austin, TX
Where to Watch: ABC
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Point Spread: Florida +21.5, Texas -21.5; Over/Under: 48 points
Bet365: Point Spread: Florida +21.5, Texas -21.5; Over/Under: 48 points
BetMGM: Point Spread: Florida +21.5, Texas -21.5; Over/Under: 47.5 points
Season Record
Florida Gators: 4-4 (2-3) (12th place, SEC)
Texas Longhorns: 7-1 (3-1) (4th place, SEC)
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Florida Gators: lost their last game at a neutral site against the Georgia Bulldogs 34-20.
Texas Longhorns: won their last game on the road against the Vanderbilt Commodores 27-24.
Florida Gators vs Texas Longhorns Preview and Analysis
Florida is entering this game with a 4-4 record overall and they have a 2-3 record in their conference games too. They are 3-2 in their home games, 1-1 in their road games, and they are also 0-1 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be on the road for this game. They lost their last game against Georgia 34-20. DJ Lagway was the starting QB and he completed 2/6 passes for 47 passing yards, 1 touchdown, and 0 interceptions before getting replaced by Aidan Warner who completed 7/22 passes for 66 yards and 1 INT. Ja'Kobi Jackson led the team in rushing yards with 74 and 1 TD. Aidan Mizell led the receivers with 66 receiving yards on 4 receptions and 1 TD. Trikweze Bridges led the defense in that game with 4 solo tackles and 4 assisted tackles while Myles Graham and Derek Wingo each led the defense in sacks with 1. Aaron Gates, Jack Pyburn, and Devin Moore each came away with 1 interception for them in that one.
Texas is entering this game with a 7-1 record overall and they have a 3-1 record in their conference games too. They are 4-1 in their home games, 2-0 in their road games, and they are also 1-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at home for this game. They won their last game against Vanderbilt 27-24. Quinn Ewers was the starting QB and he completed 27/37 passes for 288 passing yards, 3 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions. Quintrevion Wisner led the team in rushing yards with 79. DeAndre Moore Jr. led the receivers with 97 receiving yards on 6 receptions and 2 TDs. Anthony Hill Jr. led the defense in that game with 5 solo tackles and 3 assisted tackles while no one on the defense recorded a sack for them. Michael Taaffe and Liona Lefau each came away with 1 interception for them in that one.
Florida vs Texas Prediction
The current betting odds have Texas listed as a 21.5 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. Texas has looked really good in their games this season with their 7-1 record overall and their 3-1 conference record which has them right near the top of the SEC. They haven't looked great lately though, losing their first game of the season to Georgia at home and then barely beating Vanderbilt in their next game, but now they are coming out of their bye week and have had some extra time to prepare for this game. They have still looked like one of the best teams in the SEC all season and they can't afford to lose another game now with the conference being really tight. Meanwhile, Florida hasn't looked great in their games this season with their 4-4 record overall and their 2-3 conference record which has them near the bottom of the SEC. They are coming off another loss in their last one, losing to Georgia by 14 at a neutral site, and they have been a really up and down team all season. They played a good game against Georgia too, staying in the game until Georgia pulled away late, but this will be a much tougher game for them on the road off that loss. Texas has had the extra week to prepare and they will be looking to bounce back since they didn't really play well in that win right after losing to Georgia. Texas will use this as a get right game and try to prove they are still one of the best in the SEC. The best way to place a bet here is on Texas to cover the spread in this game.
Florida Texas Prediction: Our NCAAF Pick for Saturday, November 9, 2024 (12:00 pm ET start time) is Texas 49 Florida 17.
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NCAAF Betting Trends
Florida Gators: 8-4 ATS off a loss against a conference rival. 8-3 ATS versus good rushing defenses - allowing 120 rushing yards/game or less. 9-5 ATS versus good offensive teams - averaging 5.9 yards/play or more. 8-3 OVER in road lined games. 13-6 OVER as an underdog. 10-2 OVER off a loss against a conference rival.
Texas Longhorns: 0-3 ATS off 3 or more consecutive unders. 3-8 ATS vs. good passing teams averaging 8 or more passing yards/att. 5-11 1H ATS as a home favorite. 2-5 1H ATS off a road win. 3-0 1H OVER off 3 or more consecutive unders.
Key Injuries
Florida Gators: D. Lagway (QB) Questionable - Leg. E. Wilson (WR) Questionable - Undisclosed. T. Webb (RB) Questionable - Undisclosed. R. Kearney (OL) Questionable - Undisclosed. D. Manuel (OL) Questionable - Undisclosed. A. Turner (DB) Questionable - Shoulder. J. Jackson (DB) Questionable - Undisclosed. J. Marshall (DB) Out - Shoulder. M. Johnson (RB) Questionable - Lower Body. G. Mertz (QB) Out - Knee. K. Jackson (WR) Out - Knee. J. Lyons (DL) Out - Ankle.
Texas Longhorns: T. Owens (QB) Out - Lower Body. A. Mukuba (DB) Questionable - Undisclosed. V. Gardner (RB) Questionable - Undisclosed. I. Bond (WR) Questionable - Undisclosed. D. Williams (DB) Out - Lower Body. C. Clark (RB) Out - Achilles. C. Baxter (RB) Out - Knee.
Notable Quotes
“I do think the game went the way we wanted it. We made it ugly at time. But we had our team in position to win the game.” - Billy Napier after his team’s loss against UGA in their last game.
“We knew it was going to take 60 minutes against this style of team and again, it’s always good to get a road win and like I said before, that was a good football team. They weren’t 25th in the country on accident.” - Steve Sarkisian after his team’s win against Vandy in their last game.
Starting Lineups
Florida Gators
WR Dike, Chimere
WR Badger, Elijhah
WR Mizell, Aidan
TE Hansen, Hayden
TE Boardingham, Arlis
QB Lagway, DJ
RB Johnson Jr., Montrell
Texas Longhorns
WR Bond, Isaiah
WR Golden, Matthew
WR Moore Jr., DeAndre
TE Helm, Gunnar
QB Ewers, Quinn
RB Blue, Jaydon
Statistical Leaders
Florida Gators
Passing: D. Lagway (1071)
Rushing: M. Johnson (373)
Receiving: E. Badger (560)
Touchdowns: J. Baugh (5)
Texas Longhorns
Passing: Q. Ewers (1389)
Rushing: Q. Wisner (409)
Receiving: G. Helm (419)
Touchdowns: J. Blue (7)
Coaches:
Florida Gators: Billy Napier (3rd season)
Texas Longhorns: Steve Sarkisian (4th season)
Rod Pearson
About the Author:
Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life. He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years. In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective. Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.
