by Kyle Hunter
Friday, Apr 26, 2024After a month of the Major League Baseball season, I wanted to take a look at five teams that I think could be good to fade soon because I expect regression.
- Kansas City Royals (16-10 Record) The Royals are much better than last year, there is no denying that fact. However, they are 12-5 at home this year and just 4-5 on the road. They are going to have to play on the road quite a bit in the coming weeks. This is a young team and they are going to have some struggles at times. The Royals pitching staff is fourth in the majors in ERA so far this year. That will come down to earth in time. They are 4th in the majors in ERA and 27th in SIERA.
- Chicago Cubs (16-9 Record) The Cubs are off to a red hot start. They had a season win total of 83.5, so they were expected to be right around .500. I expect the Cubs to top that season win total, but I think they have too many holes to continue at this pace. The bullpen is still a question mark. The offense is good, but are they as good as they have played thus far? The Cubs are also a public team, so the prices here could get out of control in a hurry.
- Cleveland Guardians (18-7 Record) I think the Cleveland Guardians are a solid team. They have a lot of upside potential with their bullpen being elite. Still, I think they will regress toward the mean. The Guardians have played the easiest schedule in baseball so far this season. Cleveland has been weak against left handed pitching in the last few years. So far this year, Cleveland is third in weighted on base average against lefties. This has been helped by a really high .341 batting average on balls in play. Cleveland is a good team, but not 18-7 good.
- Oakland Athletics (10-16 Record) How can can a team that is 10-16 be due for regression? Oakland had a season win total of 57.5 or so at most books before the season. They have won 38.5% of their games so far this season. Oakland is playing in front of no one at home. At this point, I think them playing at home is a disadvantage if anything. The A’s will have a hard time staying motivated through this crazy season. I think they get worse.
- New York Yankees (17-9) The Yankees bullpen has a 2.86 ERA, but a 4.06 SIERA. They have won quite a few close games that could have gone either way. The Yankees have played a slightly easier schedule than the MLB average so far. That won’t continue since they play in the extremely competitive AL East. The Yankees are as public of a team as you’ll find and with this early success, their prices will be quite expensive.
